The Society of Petroleum Engineers Nigeria Council has warned that Nigeria’s ambition to exceed three million barrels per day (mbpd) in crude oil production may remain elusive unless policy gaps are closed and implementation failures across the petroleum value chain are urgently addressed.
The Council said the country’s production push must move beyond headline ambition to a more coordinated framework anchored on regulatory coherence, disciplined capital deployment and intelligent operational systems.
Francis Nwaochie, chairman of the council, made the position known at the pre-OLEF press conference in Lagos on Tuesday,stressing that Nigeria’s energy future depends more on execution than aspiration.
He noted that global geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions and price volatility were reshaping energy markets.
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According to him, the country’s production discourse should be treated as a strategic signal rather than a public relations benchmark.
“So for Nigeria, this is not just merely what we call headline news, it reinforces the need for resilience, the need for efficiency, and long-term planning in our petroleum sector.”
Nigeria currently produces between 1.6 and 1.7 mbpd, significantly below the widely discussed 3mbpd aspiration. Nwaochie described the higher figure as a long-term target shaped by technical, regulatory and market realities, including Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota limits.
He explained that output expansion depends on addressing three major production constraints; idle wells, declining mature fields and limited reserve replacement.
The Council noted that the ongoing idle well restoration programme being driven by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) represents a strategic step toward recovering stranded production.
Pressure decline in ageing fields also remains a scientific and engineering challenge requiring enhanced recovery techniques such as water and gas injection to stabilise reservoir performance.
He stressed that industry activity indicators have improved, with approximately 42 rigs reportedly operating across the country, reflecting growing exploration and development momentum.
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However, Nwaochie warned that production gains could be eroded if investment confidence is weakened by regulatory ambiguity.
“Technology and capital must operate within a coherent regulatory environment. When approval processes are slow, or mandates overlap, investment momentum weakens.”
He added that unclear fiscal terms tend to slow private capital inflow into high-risk upstream projects.
“When those fiscal terms lack clarity, we have capital that hesitates.”
The Council said the 2026 Oil and Gas Leadership Energy Forum (OLEF), scheduled for April 9 at the PTDF Tower in Abuja, would focus on translating policy conversations into operational outcomes.
The forum, themed “Beyond the 3 Million Barrels Target, Harmonizing Digitalization, Capital, and Policy Frameworks for Intelligent Operations and Asset Optimization,” is expected to convene regulators, operators, investors and technical professionals.
Nwaochie said downstream expansion, including the ramp-up of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and the growth of modular refining capacity, signals a structural shift toward domestic value addition.
He stressed that refining infrastructure, pipeline networks and storage facilities must develop concurrently to maximise economic benefits.
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On gas utilisation and decarbonisation, the Council said the country already possesses adequate policy frameworks but struggles with enforcement.
The Council said it would leverage technical expertise and data-driven analysis to support industry decision-making, adding that OLEF 2026 is designed as a working forum expected to generate actionable recommendations for long-term sector planning.
Etta Agbor, vice chairman of the council, said indigenous oil and gas companies are increasingly positioned to dominate onshore production in the coming years.
He noted that the sector landscape has changed significantly over the past four years following the transfer of several assets from international oil companies.
“From when they took over the assets to where they are now, they’ve been able to increase production… indigenous companies have demonstrated that they have the capacity.”
While acknowledging room for improvement, she emphasised the need for continuous workforce development to sustain future industry leadership.
“The area of improvement is training the next generation of players… are we positioning indigenous capabilities and resources to take over production into the future?” he asked.
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Agbor said many indigenous operators emerged from international oil companies, adding that sustaining technical excellence would require structured knowledge transfer and capacity development programmes.
He further explained that the Council operates primarily as a technical and advocacy organisation rather than a regulatory authority.
“We are a not-for-profit organisation… we can only advocate to say this is the right thing to do.”
According to him, recommendations generated from the Oil and Gas Leadership Energy Forum (OLEF) will be documented and disseminated to regulators, universities and industry stakeholders.
