As geopolitical tremors from the US-Israel-Iran conflict send shockwaves through global markets, the Nigerian stock market is proving remarkably resilient, maintaining its status as one of Africa’s top-performing bourses in 2026.
While Wall Street and European markets grapple with volatility and airspace closures, the Lagos Bourse has stayed firmly in the green, bolstered by a surge in global oil prices – which recently touched $83 per barrel – and a strong local appetite for blue-chip heavyweights.
Rather than a retreat to safety, the current climate has sparked a strategic rotation into Nigeria’s oil & gas, industrial, and consumer goods stocks.
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Stocks like Aradel (9.07percent), UACN (10 percent), Oando (9.96 percent) and other major advancers led the market which had opened the week on a positive note (by 1.40percent) to further its northward journey on Tuesday by 0.57 percent.
While global markets often retreat to safe havens like gold during Middle East tensions, several unique domestic and geopolitical factors have allowed Nigerian equities to remain bullish. These factors according to analysts are: the oil windfall correlation, strong domestic fundamentals and earnings, shift in investor base (local dominance), and macroeconomic reforms and stability.
“Oil prices are expected to stay sensitive to tension between the US and Iran, where any escalation could push prices higher, while diplomatic progress may help ease pressure. The equity market may trade with a mildly positive bias as lower interest rates improve sentiment and enhance the attractiveness of equities relative to fixed income instruments. Improved macro stability and supportive policy signals may help cushion downside risks,” according to United Capital analysts.
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With the All-Share Index (ASI) crossing the historic 196,000-point mark and market capitalisation holding steady above N126 trillion, investors are betting that higher crude revenues and robust corporate earnings will shield the domestic economy from the escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The NGX All Share Index rose to 196,621.96 points on Tuesday while the market capitalisation rose to N126.198 trillion. This week, the stock market has risen by 1.97 percent while year-to-date (YtD) it has advanced by 26.35 percent.
“The Nigerian macro story will continue to improve in 2026, with growth projected to reach 4.4 percent. We like that inflation continues to moderate, and the FX outlook remains largely positive despite geopolitical tension, benefiting trade and manufacturing sectors.
“Additionally, fixed-income yields have begun moderating, which should give room for local corporates to increase their presence in the debt market and ease pressure on finance costs. While we expect improving macro conditions to support higher credit creation by banks, we perceive that lower yields could moderate banks’ net interest income, limiting financial services growth,” according to Philip Anegbe-led team of analysts at Lagos-based CardinalStone.
While the stock market shrugs off the initial shock, analysts warn that a prolonged war could eventually hurt Nigeria via imported inflation – higher costs for refined fuel.
