With the 2019 presidential election barely nine months away, and with many Nigerians increasingly expressing disenchantment and frustration with the President Muhammadu Buhari administration, expectations are that the polity would be getting bubbly with more credible candidates who want to take over from Buhari trying to make themselves known to the electorate.
Much of this, however, is not happening and BDSUNDAY has authoritatively gathered that this is because a good number of prospective presidential aspirants are keeping their ambition close to their chests for fear of being persecuted.
Informed sources said that some of those who are secretly nursing the ambition believe that they may be fishing in troubled waters if they should declare their intention now.
They alluded to the perceived intolerant disposition of the current administration which they allege has seen some members of the opposition moving in and out of courts over allegation of corruption.
A source who spoke with BDSUNDAY on condition of anonymity said many more presidential aspirants would join the fray in the months of July and August when politicking ahead of 2019 would be getting hotter.
“I am aware of some presidential aspirants who are yet to publicly declare their intentions for the simple fact that they may be hunted. Some of them have told me that we shall be seeing many of them as we enter the months of July and August. Their fear is that should they declare now, they could be a subject of state attack and persecution in order to put them out of circulation,” the source said.
BDSUNDAY can also report authoritatively that many politicians, particularly of the opposition, are no longer willing to grant interviews. They allege that they could be subject of attack, especially with the Federal Government’s stance on the so-called hate speech.
Some prominent opposition politicians in the country contacted for interview by our correspondents over the past few weeks refused to talk. Indeed, a prominent politician of the opposition told our correspondent that Nigeria is passing through a dangerous phase and that it is worrisome that people are being muzzled to the point that they cannot air their views in a so-called democratic dispensation.
“We are in a dangerous time when people can no longer speak their mind. Freedom of speech as enshrined in the constitution is no longer guaranteed,” said the politician.
He said the only reason a government would be so fearful and intolerant of criticism is simply because it has failed woefully and to avoid being criticised, it is employing the instrument of coercion and intimidation to whip everybody into line.
He added, however, that the government in power seems to have forgotten that no amount of intimidation can cow people; that the only way to stop people from talking is by doing what is right.
“The more you try to gag people, the more voracious they become in their criticism. My advice really to the APC government is to face governance by giving the people what they want. If the people begin to see and feel good governance, they will stop to criticise; but when you continue on the pathway of mediocrity, no amount of intimidation will stop them from verbalising their frustration,” he said.
“This administration is even lucky that Nigerians are not the rowdy type. We read and heard about the Arab Spring some years back, what started it was just a minor thing – in some cases, a slight increase in price of bread and all that. There are too many reasons for a Nigerian brand of that type of ‘spring’ here, but our people are very tolerant. But my candid advice is that the current government must not over-stretch its luck,” he added.
But outside of the political class, palpable fear has also pervaded the entire polity, akin to the 2015 scenario. Many Nigerians, BDSUNDAY gathered, are not very optimistic that the 2019 elections would be free, fair, credible, and violence-free.
Those who spoke with our correspondent point to the apparent desperation among politicians – those who want the incumbent administration out of office and those who want to retain their seats by all means. For many, 2019 may well be a do-or-die affair.
Recall that the 2015 general election had generated so much fear and tension that many were almost very sure that there would be post-election violence. The apprehension was borne out of the 2011 experience where over 800 persons, including 10 members of the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC), were reported to have been killed in the North during the violence that trailed the 2011 general election.
Human Rights Watch, an international non-governmental organisation that conducts research and advocacy on human rights, had reported that deadly election-related and communal violence in northern Nigeria following the April 2011 presidential voting left more than 800 people dead, adding that the victims were killed in three days of rioting in 12 northern states.
According to Human Rights Watch, the violence began with widespread protests by supporters of the then main opposition candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, “a northern Muslim from the Congress for Progressive Change, following the re-election of incumbent Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian from the Niger Delta in the south, who was the candidate for the ruling People’s Democratic Party”. It said the protests degenerated into violent riots or sectarian killings in the northern states of Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Niger, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara, with relief officials estimating that more than 65,000 people must have been displaced.
“The day after the presidential election, held on April 16, Buhari’s supporters launched demonstrations in the streets of northern Nigeria. The protests turned violent in 12 northern states as mobs burned the homes, vehicles, and properties of ruling party stalwarts, most of whom were Muslim, and traditional leaders who were seen to have backed the ruling party,” Human Rights Watch reported.
“The rioters also began targeting and killing Christians and members of southern Nigerian ethnic groups, who were seen as supporting the ruling party, and burning churches across the north. As the riots spread, mobs of Christians in predominately Christian communities in Kaduna State retaliated by killing Muslims and burning their mosques and properties,” it said.
Corinne Dufka, then senior West Africa researcher at Human Rights Watch, had also said the presidential elections were heralded as among the fairest in Nigeria’s history, but they also were among the bloodiest.
“The newly elected authorities should quickly build on the democratic gains from the elections by bringing to justice those who orchestrated these horrific crimes and addressing the root causes of the violence,” Dufka had said.
Indeed, the Federal Government Panel on the 2011 Elections Violence and Civil Disturbances headed by Sheikh Ahmed Lemu had, in its report submitted in October 2011, identified provocative utterances by many individuals as part of the causes of the post-election violence.
“Provocative utterances by many individuals and the widespread charge by prominent politicians, including the CPC presidential candidate, to the electorate to ‘guard their votes’, ‘appeared’ to have been misconstrued by many voters to include recourse to violence which they misconstrued,” the report had said.
Buhari had, however, denied making inciting utterances, saying that the panel and the government were executing a pre-determined agenda since PDP and President Goodluck Jonathan had earlier accused the CPC of being responsible for the mayhem even before the panel was raised.
With such nasty experience, therefore, many politicians, company executives, top businessmen and other Nigerians with the means had begun to move their families abroad by late 2014 so as not to be caught up in the violence that they feared would erupt after the elections, even though many of them cited medical check-ups, short vacation, among others as reasons for their trips. Some also seized the opportunity of the 2014 Christmas holiday to move their families abroad till after the elections. In the same vein, many foreign investors, particularly portfolio investors, had also pulled out of the country, negatively impacting the Nigerian stock market.
To douse the tension, leaders of the country’s major political parties and their presidential candidates, including then President Goodluck Jonathan of PDP and Muhammadu Buhari of APC, had in January 2015 signed a peace pact committing to avoid actions that could promote violence during and after the polls – at an event that was attended by Kofi Anan, former UN secretary-general, and Emeka Anyaoku, former Commonwealth secretary-general.
As 2019 approaches, with reported cases of small arms proliferation, high rate of hard drugs consumption particularly in the North, and widespread killings all across the country, the fears are back that the violence this time around could be worse than ever experienced.
“With the widespread killings by the Fulani herdsmen, the situation is worse now than in 2015. The herdsmen can decide to go on rampage to frighten prospective voters. I am not very optimistic that we are going to have a violence-free election,” Patrick Aghuo, a public relations practitioner, said.
“Remember that prior to 2011, Muhammadu Buhari had allegedly threatened that the dog and baboon would be soaked in blood if the elections did not go his way and we knew what happened then. Now that he has the instrument of power, he may decide to wield it in order to forcefully return himself to power. So, I am not very optimistic, really,” Aghuo said.
ZEBULON AGOMUO & CHUKS OLUIGBO
