Some experts say Nigeria’s ranking among the top 10 contributors to global economic growth in 2026 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) signals positive macroeconomic momentum.
In an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in Abuja on Sunday, they, however, noted that it had not reflected improvements in citizens’ living standards.
The experts said Nigeria’s ranking among the top 10 contributors to global economic growth in 2026 by the IMF signals positive macroeconomic momentum although it does not reflect improvements in citizens’ living standards.
According to the IMF’s 2026 projections, Nigeria is expected to contribute approximately 1.5 per cent to worldwide real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.
It said this placed it roughly eighth, globally, making it the only African country listed among the top-tier contributors.
The report showed that China would remain the largest contributor to global growth at 26.6 per cent, followed by India at 17.0 per cent and the United States at 9.9 per cent.
Other countries in the top 10 include Indonesia(3.8 per cent), Türkiye (2.2 per cent), Saudi Arabia (1.7 per cent), Vietnam (1.6 per cent), Brazil (1.5 per cent), and Germany (0.9 per cent).
The IMF data further highlighted the dominance of the Asia-Pacific region, projected to account for nearly 50 per cent of global economic expansion in 2026.
But reacting to the development, Mr Ephraim Audu, an economist, described the ranking as reflective of Nigeria’s contribution to incremental global growth rather than the overall size of its economy.
“The IMF projection shows Nigeria among the top 10 countries driving global economic growth in 2026, contributing about 1.5 per cent of total GDP expansion.
“This places Nigeria roughly 8th globally, ahead of major economies such as Brazil and Germany.
“This is more about the share of global growth driven by Nigeria, not necessarily an indication of its overall GDP size, ” he said.
Audu attributed the rating partly to Nigeria’s compliance with key IMF reform templates, including the removal of fuel subsidies, foreign exchange liberalisation, tax reforms, and the repayment of the 3.4 billion dollars COVID-19 loan.
He, however, cautioned that domestic economic conditions remained challenging, citing high inflation, rising production costs, persistent poverty, infrastructure deficits and slow per capital income growth in key sectors.
“While Nigeria’s global growth contribution is significant, sustainable development and inclusive policies are required to ensure that economic gains translate into tangible improvements in living standards at home,” he added.
Also speaking, Mr Benjamin Ekeyi, a Public Finance Management and Governance expert, described the IMF ranking as a positive macroeconomic signal that should be interpreted with caution.
“It represents a vote of confidence in the government’s reform agenda and points to Nigeria’s growing economy.
” However, it contrasts sharply with the hardship many Nigerians continue to experience,” Ekeyi said.
According to him, Nigeria’s projected GDP growth rate of 4.4 per cent for 2026, is seen by many economists as insufficient for a country with over 200 million people and vast economic potential.
He noted that while Nigeria and Indonesia had comparable economic profiles in the late 1990s, Indonesia’s GDP had risen to about 1.4 trillion dollars by 2025, whereas Nigeria’s was estimated at about 280 billion dollars.
Ekeyi stressed the need for the government to leverage renewed investor confidence and improved fiscal space to drive massive infrastructure investment in power, transport and logistics.
He added that deliberate policies should be implemented to diversify the economy beyond oil, and strengthen institutions to ensure policy consistency and transparency.
Ekeyi added that only deliberate investments in manufacturing, agriculture and technology would generate quality jobs and deliver inclusive growth.
The experts agreed that Nigeria appears to be on a more stable macroeconomic footing.
They, however, said broad-based reforms and productivity-driven investments remain critical to translating projected global growth contributions into tangible benefits for citizens.
