It is “increasingly likely” the UK will leave the EU without a deal in less than three weeks time, Brussels said on Monday, as it announced the bloc was ready for a hard Brexit involving delays, customs checks and quizzing British travellers at the border.
With a no-deal Brexit possible as soon as April 12, the European Commission said that country visits by senior officials showed “a high degree of preparation by member states for all scenarios”.
It added that Brussels had itself completed its no-deal planning “as it is increasingly likely that the United Kingdom will leave the EU without a deal on 12 April”. But it noted there would inevitably be disruptions to trade and free movement.
There will be “frictions”, one official said. “It is pretty clear.”
The commission also said it would be looking to the UK to keep making budget contributions to Brussels, even in the case of a no-deal Brexit.
“We are of the opinion that financial commitments we put together as 28 [EU member states] should be honoured as 28,” the official said. The official added that the two sides would need to reach agreement on the budget “before one could move to other issues in a no-deal scenario”.
According to commission contingency plans, Britain would have to confirm whether to make about €7bn of net contributions to the EU’s 2019 budget by April 18 — less than a week after the new departure date.
At a summit last week the EU agreed to delay Britain’s exit from the bloc from the previously scheduled date of March 29 until April 12 — or May 22 if Theresa May succeeds in finally winning House of Commons for her Brexit deal this week.
Donald Tusk, European Council president, said that all options were still on the table — including no deal — but that “almost everything” was now in the hand of the British parliament and Mrs May’s government.
The Commission acknowledged that if there was a no-deal Brexit the new checks could still cause delays at ports and airports for both people and goods coming from the UK despite the “considerable preparations” by member states.
A no-deal Brexit would involve the immediate imposition of customs duties on UK goods entering the EU, as well as product checks.
In documents published on Monday, the EU also warned Britons that travellers to the continent would face questions at the border about the purpose of their visit and means of subsistence.
Animals from the UK would no longer be covered by the bloc’s “pet passport”. As a result, pets would be checked at the border to verify whether they have the necessary vaccinations and ID chips.
EU officials added that European companies had told Brussels they would prefer a no-deal outcome soon to prolonged uncertainty.
“They were telling us ‘we want certainty, and if it has to happen so be it’,” one official said.
Asked about the implications of customs checks for the Northern Ireland land border, an EU official said that Brussels was working intensively with the Irish government to minimise “disruptions to cross-border trade and supply chains” in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
“We are working very closely with the Irish authorities to try to carry out controls away from the border if at all possible,” the official said.
“But this is still a situation that is absolutely fundamentally different to a withdrawal agreement situation — there will be disruptions, we are working to find good solutions.”
