China’s exports to Nigeria climbed to a record $24.9 billion in 2025, reversing three consecutive years of decline and extending a decade-long expansion that has reinforced China’s dominance in Nigeria’s import structure.
Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, seen by BusinessDay, revealed that exports rose from $18.9 billion in 2024 to $24.9 billion in 2025, the highest level recorded in nine years. The figure surpasses the previous peak of $22.6 billion reached in 2021 and is nearly three times the $9.72 billion recorded in 2016.
The long-term trajectory reflects structural growth rather than isolated spikes. Between 2016 and 2019, exports increased steadily from $9.72 billion to about $16.8 billion as Nigerian importers expanded purchases of machinery, electronics, industrial equipment, and consumer goods to support rising consumption and industrial activity. China consolidated its position as a primary supplier of manufactured goods during this period.
Momentum remained intact in 2020 despite global supply chain disruptions triggered by the pandemic. Trade flows held broadly steady around the 2019 level before accelerating sharply in 2021. That year marked the first major breakout in the series, with exports jumping to $22.6 billion on stronger capital goods demand, infrastructure-related imports, and post-pandemic restocking.
The surge in 2021 proved difficult to sustain. From 2022 onward, export values moderated as foreign exchange liquidity tightened and trade financing conditions became more restrictive. Export flows eased from above $21 billion in 2022 to $20 billion in 2023 before declining further to $18.9 billion in 2024.
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The contraction over those three years coincided with currency volatility and dollar shortages that constrained importers’ ability to clear shipments. Higher naira depreciation increased the local currency cost of imported goods, while limited FX availability slowed trade settlement across sectors.
The rebound in 2025 signals renewed import capacity and improved trade clearing after exchange rate adjustments and reforms aimed at improving transparency in the foreign exchange market. As liquidity conditions improved, deferred demand filtered through, pushing export flows to a new high.
China’s export basket to Nigeria remains concentrated in consumer electronics, textiles, construction materials, industrial inputs and heavy machinery. These categories support both household consumption and production activity, particularly in manufacturing and infrastructure-linked sectors that rely heavily on imported intermediate goods.
The data show that despite repeated policy efforts to promote import substitution and strengthen domestic manufacturing, substitution has yet to materially reduce reliance on imported capital equipment and finished goods. The steady climb from under $10 billion in 2016 to nearly $25 billion in 2025 underscores the depth of China’s integration into Nigeria’s supply chains.
From a macro perspective, rising imports translate into sustained foreign exchange demand in an economy where oil remains the dominant source of FX earnings. As import volumes expand, pressure on reserves and exchange rate management increases unless offset by stronger non-oil export growth or capital inflows.
The three-year contraction preceding the 2025 rebound highlights how sensitive trade flows are to liquidity conditions. When dollar access tightens, import values adjust downward. When liquidity improves or exchange reforms ease settlement constraints, trade volumes recover quickly.
As trade flows scale new highs, the broader trajectory will hinge on the pace of local industrial expansion versus sustained import-led growth in a still import-dependent economy.
