There are many positives to the process Nigeria has gone through in the course of these elections – we have evolved a stronger two-party system; our elections have become vastly more competitive both at national (imagine an incumbent Nigerian president working intensely on persuading various constituencies to support his re-election) and sub-national levels (Benue, Ogun, Oyo, Lagos, Kaduna, Borno and several other states which used to be single-party preserves appear open for contest); many “exclusionary zones” in our political space have been broken down or at least eroded (General Buhari may win some Christian and Southern votes, which were taboo just four years ago; Jonathan has regained decent support in the South-West; Governors Amaechi, Okorocha and Oshiomhole from Jonathan’s core South-East/South-South constituency supported his opponent, Buhari; and Jonathan retained the support of Governors Sule Lamido, Babangida Aliyu, Ibrahim Shema and co in spite of all blackmail and intimidation, etc.); and the awareness and interest of the average citizen in politics and elections have been greatly enhanced.
On the other hand, there are negatives! These have been a very divisive election campaign with the fissures running through ethnic, religious, communal, political and other homogeneities. Virtually every group or organization has been divided down the line as politics often set apart what other interests had put together. In some way, the development of a stronger two-party system has been a missed opportunity as the political class chose the exigency of building a contest devoid of principle, policies and ideas and politicians crossed from one party to the other simply based on personal political calculations and interests. We have dragged the international community into domestic politics as various global power groups appear interested in shaping, influencing or deciding the outcome of the elections; and it is possible to argue that some elements may have deployed terror and intimidation as instruments of seeking political power. It is also evident that no other election in Nigeria has been characterized by the scale of resources and (negative) propaganda as much as the ones we shall have on Saturday.
The good thing is that all good (and bad) things must come to an end and Nigeria will vote this weekend to elect a president for the next four years. Even though I have written about the possibilities of continuity, change, coalition and CRISIS, my hope is that the polls may go relatively smoothly and we will again walk away from the brink.
In terms of outcomes, I have noted that my firm RTC Advisory Services Ltd has been running numbers since November 2014 around our assumptions and projections for the polls first slated for February 14 and 28, 2015. We anticipated the postponement of the vote (and said so in this column) and we have since been revising our projections based on the latest permanent voter card (PVC) collection statistics. In the last six weeks since the polls, several things have happened all favourable to the incumbent –the PVC distribution statistics have altered with higher collection in the South-South/South-East and Lagos by constituencies substantially favourable to Jonathan; the president has gone on an onslaught across the country and particularly in the South-West which appears to have been successful; the APC campaign appears to have tapered down as the candidate took a mysterious two-week holiday in London and kept a low profile subsequently; and the PDP has done a slightly more successful job of dispelling the idea that “Jonathan has done nothing”.
On the other hand, the president appeared to be working from a weak starting position having neglected politics and propaganda until it was almost too late. Many of those who had decided to vote Buhari had become fixed in their voting intentions.
In the event, our projections suggest that Jonathan has significantly closed the gap in Lagos State, though we expect Buhari may still win the state. Jonathan may be victorious in other South-West states except Osun and will retain his extraordinary majority in the South-South and South-East. We also expect Jonathan to take a narrow majority in the North-Central. Buhari will naturally dominate the populous North-West although Jonathan may put up a strong showing in Kaduna and Kebbi States, and score twenty-five percent minimum in some other states. The
North-East is very nuanced with both candidates winning in some states, and the overall regional outcome dependent on turnout and the margin of victory in each state.
I will not announce who our projections suggest will win, but we have discounted those international analysts who have naively projected a large margin of victory for the opposition candidate based on faulty assumptions about homogenous regional votes in the South-West and North. My message to all Nigerians is that irrespective of who wins or loses, there will be life after these very interesting elections and victory or otherwise will be decided by the Nigerian electorate (those of them who eventually secured their PVCs), INEC/Jega and President Jonathan.
Opeyemi Agbaje
