The BusinessDay 2027 Election Insights January poll on the possible 2027 presidential election revealed a divided electorate, with security and the cost of living emerging as the most decisive issues for voters assessing President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress (APC).
The survey asked respondents whether they would vote for President Tinubu as the APC presidential candidate in 2027, how they rated his performance so far, what issue would most influence their vote, their level of optimism about Nigeria’s direction, their likelihood of participating in the election, and whether they believed the poll would be free and fair. Participants were also asked to state their biggest concern about Nigeria’s future leading into 2027.
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Mixed support for 2027
Responses show a near-even split between those willing to vote for the President again and those who would not. A smaller group remains undecided, while a few respondents said they are not eligible to vote.
Among supporters, performance ratings largely ranged between 4 (“Good”) and 5 (“Excellent”). Those backing the President often cited economic reforms, infrastructure projects and policy continuity as reasons for their position. One respondent said, “Yes, the economy has stabilised. The economy has been liberated from fuel and FX subsidies. There is energy security. There is increasing investment in infrastructure.”
Another supporter wrote that their concern would be “reversal of current economic and political gains if Tinubu is not re-elected,” while others mentioned “Stability and sustaining the reforms,” and “Security is my concern, which I know the President will tackle.”
However, critics rated the President’s performance between 1 (“Very Poor”) and 2 (“Poor”). Their comments focused on inflation, insecurity and governance. One respondent wrote: “My biggest concern is the declining standard of living. Many Nigerians are operating in survival mode, living hand to mouth and unable to build real financial stability.” Another warned of “continued insecurity and cost of living.”
Several respondents expressed distrust in the political system itself. One described Nigeria as operating a “Selectoral system instead of an electoral system,” adding, “No sincerity in Nigeria’s political system.”
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Economy and security dominate concerns
When asked which issue would most influence their vote in 2027, the economy and cost of living ranked first by a wide margin. Security and safety followed closely. A smaller number cited infrastructure and development, job creation and youth opportunities, and education and healthcare.
Concerns about inflation, foreign exchange stability and unemployment were recurring themes. One respondent said their concern was “FX stability due to the behaviour of Nigerian politicians as we inch closer to the election phase.” Another warned that “Housing, foodstuffs, school fees, transportation are going to get more expensive.”
Security concerns were also prominent. References were made to “banditry, kidnapping & religious extremists,” “Public Insecurity,” and fears that the country could face “breakdown of law and order leading to possible civil war.” Some respondents linked insecurity directly to economic hardship, arguing that safety is the basis for growth and investment.
Optimism divided
On whether they feel optimistic about Nigeria’s direction under the present administration, responses ranged from “Very optimistic” to “Very pessimistic.” A significant number of supporters described themselves as “Very optimistic,” while critics largely chose “Very pessimistic.”
Some respondents took a middle position. One said, “Curiously optimistic.” Another stated, “I want to maintain some optimism, but when have elections ever been free and fair in this country?”
A number of comments reflected both hope and doubt. One respondent wrote, “I hope the macro gains made especially in taming the inflation will not be washed off by the erratic dollar spending behaviour of politicians.”
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High intention to vote
Despite differing views, most respondents said they are “Very likely” to participate in the 2027 presidential election. Even among those critical of the administration, there was a clear intention to vote. One respondent wrote, “No, but we’ll vote and watch!”
A smaller group indicated they were unlikely or unsure about voting, while those not eligible to vote still shared opinions on governance and national direction.
Concerns over free and fair elections
Confidence in the conduct of the 2027 election remains mixed. Many respondents said they are optimistic the election will be free and fair. Others expressed doubt, particularly around electronic transmission of results.
One respondent said, “If the electronic transmission is not granted, it will be chaotic.” Another wrote, “I strongly doubt the election will be free and fair given the fishy resolution by the Senate real time transmission of election result with the wicked clause to use manual process as backup which I strongly feel is the area the government and politician will exploit to dubiously and corruptly win the election.”
There were also references to “Rigging,” “Thugs and Manipulation,” and fears of “Election Fraud and Massive looting in 2nd term.”
A country at a crossroads
The poll shows a country deeply engaged in its political future. Supporters point to reform momentum, infrastructure investment and policy continuity. Critics focus on hardship, insecurity and distrust in institutions. Undecided voters often cite security and economic stability as the issues that will determine their final choice.
Across responses, one message stands out: Nigerians are watching closely. Whether driven by hope, frustration or caution, many intend to participate in 2027. The economy and security will shape that decision, and trust in the electoral process may prove just as decisive.
