A report by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) has warned that growing uncertainty around the United States trade preferences under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) poses significant risks to African economies, urging governments to accelerate and equalize implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as a countermeasure.
The report, titled Beyond Aid and Fear: A Progressive Path to Africa’s Growth Resurgence, was presented in Abuja and examines how rising right-wing populism in parts of the Global North is reshaping aid, trade and global governance frameworks in ways that could undermine Africa’s development prospects.
According to the report, protectionist policies and the politicisation of trade arrangements, particularly during the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump have exposed the fragility of Africa’s external trade dependence.
While AGOA has provided preferential access to the U.S. market for eligible African countries, the report argues that shifting political priorities in Washington have made such access increasingly unpredictable.
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Between 2018 and 2020, AGOA exports from Africa to the United States declined significantly, reflecting both global trade tensions and domestic policy shifts.
The report highlights South Africa as a case study, noting that disputes over tariffs and market access, alongside political disagreements, placed its AGOA eligibility under pressure.
Beyond the United States, the report points to similar trends in Europe, where nationalist political movements have pushed for tighter trade safeguards and resisted new free trade agreements. These dynamics, it says, have contributed to Africa’s marginal share in global exports and heightened vulnerability to external shocks.
To address these structural weaknesses, the authors call for a more assertive and equitable implementation of AfCFTA, describing it as Africa’s most ambitious economic integration project to date. With 54 signatories, the agreement is designed to dismantle intra-African trade barriers, strengthen regional value chains and reduce dependence on volatile external markets.
Speaking at the book presentation on Monday in Abuja, Aderonke Ige, the co-author said the report interrogates the changing character of international development cooperation, warning that aid has increasingly become transactional, often tied to migration controls and cultural conservatism, while rising protectionist barriers continue to erode Africa’s global competitiveness.
According to her, Africa is not merely a passive recipient of these shifting policies but is actively crafting strategic responses. Central to this response is the assertive and equitable advancement of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), aimed at deepening regional integration and reducing exposure to volatile external markets.
She noted that diversification toward partnerships within the Global South is also gaining momentum, offering alternative export markets, infrastructure financing, and commodity-based trade arrangements that come without the ideological strings often attached to Western agreements.
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Ige argued that the resurgence of right-wing populism across parts of the Global North has exposed Africa’s structural over-reliance on externally controlled markets and politically conditioned trade regimes.
As a counter-strategy, she said, African governments must pursue a multifaceted approach, strengthening continental self-reliance through AfCFTA while building a diversified external portfolio anchored in South–South cooperation.
“This is not just an aspirational agenda. It is a survival strategy designed to transform structural disadvantages into strategic advantages and ensure Africa shapes its own development trajectory in an increasingly complex global landscape,” she said
“AfCFTA is the continent’s most powerful tool for economic resilience, but it must be implemented equitably. Safeguards for smaller economies and workers’ rights are vital, ensuring that integration does not privilege the largest players.
“Progressive leaders should push for the faster removal of non-tariff barriers, the expansion of cross-border infrastructure, and the activation of AfCFTA’s dispute settlement body to protect weaker economies. A measurable goal is to raise intra-African trade from the current 15% to at atleast 25% within the next decade,” she added
The report also calls on Western governments to recalibrate their engagement with Africa, urging more equitable and less politicised approaches to aid and trade, renewed commitment to multilateralism, and efforts to address the domestic drivers of populism within their own societies.
The report further highlights how aid flows are increasingly used as political leverage. Policies in the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union illustrate this trend. Under former President Donald Trump, the reinstatement of the “Global Gag Rule” led to significant funding losses for health services across Africa.
In the UK, official development assistance was cut from 0.7 per cent to 0.5 per cent of Gross National Income beginning in 2021, resulting in billions of pounds in reduced humanitarian support.
In Europe, the rise of far-right parties such as Alternative for Germany has intensified pressure for aid reductions, though spending cuts have also been implemented by mainstream governments facing fiscal constraints.
The most visible manifestation of this shift, the report argues, is the rise of transactional aid, financing increasingly tied to donor domestic priorities. Migration control has become a defining conditionality in EU–Africa relations, exemplified by agreements such as the EU–Tunisia memorandum aimed at curbing irregular migration flows.
Such conditionalities, the authors warn, risk restricting policy autonomy, weakening essential services, and undermining long-term development planning across the continent.
