Femi Otedola, billionaire investor and chairman of First HoldCo, has projected that the naira could strengthen to below N1,000 per dollar before the end of 2026, citing the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s attainment of full production capacity as a major catalyst for foreign exchange stability.
In a post on X on Thursday, Otedola described the refinery’s ramp-up to its full 650,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) capacity as a turning point for Nigeria’s macroeconomic outlook, particularly the currency market, which has faced sustained pressure from high import demand and dollar shortages.
According to him, the refinery’s ability to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily could drastically cut Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel, historically one of the country’s largest sources of foreign exchange demand.
“With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly,” Otedola wrote. “I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below N1,000/$1 before year end is increasingly within reach.”
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His optimism comes as the naira showed modest gains earlier this year, appreciating to N1,400.47 per dollar at the official market on January 29, reflecting improved liquidity and policy adjustments by monetary authorities.
The Dangote refinery announced on Wednesday that it reached full operational capacity after fully restoring and optimising its crude distillation unit (CDU) and motor spirit production block following scheduled maintenance. The company said the milestone represents a major step toward stabilising domestic fuel supply and strengthening Nigeria’s energy independence.
Beyond current output, Otedola disclosed that Aliko Dangote, founder of the refinery and Africa’s richest man, has already begun work on an additional $12 billion expansion project that will raise refining capacity to 1.4 million bpd. The expansion will also include petrochemical production lines capable of manufacturing 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tonnes of Linear Alkyl Benzene annually.
Both products are key industrial inputs used in plastics, packaging, and detergent manufacturing. Increased local production is expected to reduce Nigeria’s import bill for raw materials, further easing pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
