Speaking at the PwC + BusinessDay 2026 Executive Roundtable, Kunle Amida, partner, Deals Advisory at PwC, identified key trends expected to shape Nigeria’s investment landscape in 2026. He pointed to improving macroeconomic stability across the economy. He also highlighted deeper scrutiny of transactions. According to him, institutional investors are gradually returning to the Nigerian market.
Amida said investment activity in 2026 will be driven by a delicate balancing act between asset valuation and deal completion risks. He said this is particularly evident following Nigeria’s revised capital gains tax (CGT) regime. According to him, the new tax framework is forcing both buyers and sellers to reassess pricing assumptions. This has lengthened negotiations. It has also placed greater emphasis on execution certainty.
“Transactions are no longer just about price,” he noted. “There is now a much stronger focus on whether deals can actually close under the new regulatory and tax environment.”
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Improved access to local capital
Another major theme shaping the outlook for 2026 is improved access to local capital. Amida said expectations of a lower interest rate environment could support deal activity. He added that ongoing banking sector recapitalisation is also critical. Together, these factors could gradually ease financing constraints across the market. As banks strengthen their balance sheets to meet regulatory thresholds, lending capacity is expected to improve. This, he said, would support domestic deal activity. It would also reduce reliance on offshore capital.
Beyond funding conditions, Amida highlighted a shift in how investors approach value creation. He said Nigeria is seeing a rise in what he described as “business diligence”. Under this approach, investors go beyond financial due diligence. They now interrogate business models. They examine value chains. Governance structures and operational resilience are also coming under closer review.
“We are no longer just diligencing the numbers,” he said. “Investors are diligencing the business itself, how value is created, how it is sustained, and where the risks truly lie.”
This approach, he explained, allows investors to enter transactions with a clearer understanding of value levers. It also supports the development of defined post-acquisition transformation strategies. The focus is increasingly on “transacting to transform”. Opportunistic acquisitions are becoming less attractive.
There will be more energy sector deals this year
Sector-wise, Amida said energy, financial services, and impact-oriented investments are expected to remain the most attractive in 2026. In the energy sector, the continuation of international oil company (IOC) divestments is creating opportunities. Marginal field bid rounds are also opening up new acquisition and financing windows. He noted that while IOC exits are not yet complete, more transactions are expected to close within the year.
Financial services are also emerging as a key deal driver. This is particularly evident as banks approach recapitalisation deadlines. Amida said institutions with capital shortfalls may pursue last-minute transactions. These could include equity raises, mergers, or asset sales. Such moves, he said, create opportunities for both strategic and financial investors. He added that insurance industry recapitalisation is likely to follow a similar trajectory.
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One of the most notable developments, according to Amida, is the return of institutional investors to Nigeria. He said interest from global private equity firms has risen sharply compared with the past decade. He cited renewed engagement from firms that had largely stayed away from the market for several years.
“For almost eight to ten years, some global investors never called us,” he said. “In the last two years alone, we have received multiple calls. That tells you that confidence is gradually returning.”
He attributed the renewed interest to a more stable macroeconomic environment. Improved foreign exchange conditions have also played a role. Clearer policy direction has further supported investor confidence. As a result, deal activity is picking up. Investors are showing greater willingness to deploy capital, although transactions are now more structured and risk-aware.
Looking ahead, Amida said both buyers and sellers must adapt to the changing market dynamics. Buyers need to strengthen internal processes. They must be able to identify the right acquisition targets. Sellers, on the other hand, must organise their affairs. Balance sheets need to be cleaned up. Disclosures must improve to attract quality capital.
“If 2026 delivers on its macroeconomic promise,” he said, “Nigeria’s investment market could move from cautious recovery to sustained, value-driven growth.”
