Lagos state, Nigeria’s commercial hub, is expanding its fleet of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) buses across key corridors, signalling a strategic shift in public transportation policy despite growing global push toward electric vehicles (EVs).
The state government, over the years, has been deploying CNG-powered buses, a move official said aligns with broader efforts to reduce transport costs for mass transit, while leveraging Nigeria’s vast natural gas reserves as a cleaner alternative to petrol and diesel.
While the government maintains that CNG provides a practical and lower-cost pathway toward cleaner public transport, experts note that the move contrasts with the growing global shift toward fully electric bus fleets.
“Lagos’ decision to prioritise CNG buses is a transitional strategy, considering the global shift towards decarbonisation, as Nigeria has about 200+ trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves and more upside potential, which makes CNG economically pragmatic now,” Abdulsomod Sarumi, EV and sustainable energy expert, told BusinessDay.
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Sarumi, however, said that Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan targets deep transport electrification over time (going all electric by 2055), which is what aligns with the global decarbonisation push.
He added that Lagos, being one of the two states with a greater number of CNG refilling stations nationwide, is better positioned to scale CNG buses than electric buses.
Sarumi noted that as of now, Lagos has CNG refilling stations far below what’s needed for large fleet operations, but scaling seems more closer than that of EVs, highlighting grid reliability and charging depots are the main constraints for scaling of EVs.
He also noted that increased investment in CNG buses risks slowing Lagos’ long-term decarbonisation goals because investing very high in an intermediary solution without a clear plan and budget for electrification might lead to the fear of losing on such investment.
“Hence, wanting to stay more with it, for maximum ROI, Lagos is doing it right. They pursue a hybrid pathway: CNG for immediate cost relief after subsidy removal, and energy security, while piloting electric buses and expanding electrified rail. The risk of this is carbon lock-in, if CNG infrastructure is overinvested in without a clear electrification roadmap,” Sarumi said.
While CNG offers lower fuel costs and faster deployment within Nigeria’s current infrastructure realities, electric vehicles are widely regarded as the cleaner long-term alternative due to zero tailpipe emissions and lower operating costs.
According to Mobility Rising, governments across Africa are buying EVs directly for use by state entities, rolling out grants and subsidies to facilitate the production and purchase of EVs, primarily aimed at stimulating local production.
CNG vs EV: The cost and decarbonisation goal
According to Youdha by Lohia Global, while both CNG and electric autos are cleaner alternatives to traditional fuels, electric autos clearly offer stronger advantages in cost-efficiency, maintenance, comfort, and long-term savings.
BusinessDay findings showed that while CNG is sold by volume at N380 per Standard Cubic Metre (SCM), electricity for EVs is billed per kilowatt-hour (kWh).
On average, a CNG car costs roughly N30 – N38 per kilometre to operate, depending on efficiency, and an electric vehicle costs approximately N10 – N16 per kilometre to charge, based on prevailing electricity tariffs and typical consumption rates.
“CNG addresses short-term environmental and operational concerns, but electric systems are the ultimate destination due to cheaper operating costs, lower maintenance, fewer moving parts, and more affordable transport for citizens,” Victor Okwudili, EV mobility & fleet economics advisor, said.
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EVs appear cheaper per kilometre, but a reliable power grid is required, with limited charging infrastructure, coupled with the high upfront cost of buses and expensive battery replacement, hindering adoption in the country.
In terms of maintenance, CNG vehicles are almost the same as petrol vehicles, requiring regular changes, which can lead to higher routine servicing costs. EVs, on the other hand, have fewer mechanical parts and lower routine maintenance is needed, but they rely on advanced battery and electrical systems, which can be expensive to replace.
Okwudili added that ultimately, policy often drives which option is prioritised, not necessarily which is better, noting that EVs remain cheaper, safer, and more sustainable in the long term.
“Heavy investment in CNG buses could slow Lagos progress toward decarbonisation. CNG was intended as a transition, not a destination. EV adoption should remain the end goal.
“CNG buses are a practical short-term solution, but electric mobility is the future. Strategic planning should balance immediate needs with Lagos long term decarbonisation goals,” he said.
