It’s exactly 523 days to the 2019 general election; politics has assumed centre stage and governance relegated to the back stage, as there have been alignment and realignment of forces in the nation’s political atmosphere.
Already, subtle campaigns have commenced even as consultations and nocturnal meetings are ongoing across political boundaries to strategise and sponsor the emergence of platforms that would offer enough space to politicians to realise their political ambitions.
While some political pundits say the July 12 Supreme Court verdict, which validated the position of Ahmed Makarfi as the authentic national chairman of the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) may have ruled out the emergence of other political platforms to give the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) a run for its money in the next general election, others disagree, citing the inability of the governing APC to organise a National Convention despite the return of President Muhammadu Buhari as strong indication of the emergence of viable alternative platforms other than the PDP.
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo belongs to the second school-of-thought. According to him, both the APC and PDP are not vibrant enough. The elder statesman revealed that two new political parties would be established before the 2019 general election. He said politicians across the nation would engage in alignment and re-alignment for the creation of two new political parties that would be very formidable.
The two major parties have systematically zoned the presidential ticket to the North, hence the dominance of the presidential race by the Northern politicians.
Checks on the website of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on Friday revealed that there are 46 political parties in Nigeria, even as findings by BDSUNDAY confirmed that over 100 political associations have applied to the electoral body to be registered as political parties.
Nigerians have expressed divergent views from across the broad spectrum of the society, on the country’s exit from economic recession. To pro-Buhari supporters, the President’s economic policies are yielding fruits but to anti-Buhari campaigners, there is nothing to celebrate as the exit does not impact positively on the harsh living conditions of the people.
However, for political economists, this would translate to increased cash flow as the next general election approaches.
Below are some of the politicians that are eager to take President Buhari’s job, even as the President’s body language shows a man that appears not yet willing to leave the Aso Rock Villa in 2019.
Muhammadu Buhari (74 years)
The succession battle for 2019 among members of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), assumed another dimension last week when the Minister of Women Affairs and Social Development Aisha Alhassan said President Muhammadu Buhari told members of his party in the buildup to the 2015 elections that he would only seek one term.
Although the President is yet to make any official pronouncement on his plan to seek re-election, Alhassan stressed in an interview with BBC Hausa Service that if Buhari sought re-election she would resign and support her ‘political father’ and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar if he decides to run.
She said: “In 2014/2015 he (Buhari) said he was going to run for only one time to clean up the mess that the (previous) PDP government did in Nigeria. And I took him for his word that he is not contesting in 2019.
“If today Mr. President says he is running in 2019, I will go to him respectfully and thank him for giving me an opportunity to serve, and then tell him that I have to resign because my political father (Atiku) may be running”.
The President has been hampered by ill-health as he has embarked on medical vacation in London cumulatively for four months in 2017.
Already, the APC in Ebonyi State has commenced campaigns for his re-election, even as the governing party’s national chairman, John Odigie-Oyegun had said that he would pray and fast to God that the President agrees to contest in 2019.
Also, presidential aides like Minister of State for Petroleum Resource, Ibe Kachikwu, his Transportation and Agriculture counterparts Rotimi Amaechi and Audu Ogbeh, respectively as well as Senior Special Assistant to President Muhammadu Buhari on Media and Publicity, Garba Shehu have all maintained that the President would win the 2019 presidential election.
The President enjoys right of first refusal to the party’s ticket.
Political commentators say endorsement of Buhari as the 2019 presidential candidate by the party and his formal acceptance could polarise the party as there are other political heavyweights within the party eyeing the position.
Another school-of-thought believes that even if the President clinches the ruling party’s ticket for re-election, his opponents will use his ill-health to ‘demarket’ him as an ‘unfit’ candidate.
Pundits say that Buhari’s alleged promise to do only one term may not hold water as politicians are fond of breaking their vows and are not good covenant keepers. They cited instance with the immediate past president Goodluck Jonathan, who, after promising that he would not stand election in 2015, forced himself on the party, thereby breaking his promise, which allegedly dragged the PDP into crisis.
Nonetheless, should the President seek re-election, he is expected to garner widespread support in both North West and some parts of North East geopolitical zones considering his large followership there. However, moneybags who contributed immensely to the actualisation of the Buhari Presidency in 2015 may withdraw their support due to lack of political patronage by the President.
Yemi Osinbajo (60years)
There are strong indications that if the President decides not to run in 2019, he could use a Plan B: deploy the services of his vice Yemi Osinbajo to continue from where he (Buhari) he would stop. Those who hold this view buttress their argument with the endorsement of Osinbajo by wife of the President, Aisha Buhari, when he held sway as Acting President.
During Osinbajo’s 60th birthday in March, the First Lady had congratulated him, saying that he had the ability to lead Nigeria in line with the manifesto of the All Progressives Congress (APC). A source at the Presidency familiar with the matter revealed that the President may rattle his political opponents within the APC by throwing up Osinbajo as his successor due to his loyalty.
“There is Plan ‘B’ if Buhari’s health does not allow him to contest in 2019. The possibility of backing Osinbajo for the 2019 Presidential election cannot be ruled out. Anything is possible in politics and those who do not see him as a potential candidate for the next election may be in for a big shock,” the source disclosed.
However, the major challenge Osinbajo will have to confront is the vested interests within the APC. There are political gladiators from the legacy parties of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), a faction of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) as well as joiners like a faction of People’s Democratic Party (PDP) already eyeing the president’s job.
Another hurdle is whether the Northern elite will give their backing to Osinbajo considering the argument that the North was supposed to serve out two terms of eight years and Buhari’s endorsement of his deputy who is from the South, could alter this arrangement. Recall that the South-West where the Vice President comes from had earlier spent two terms of eight years under former President Olusegun Obasanjo between 1999 and 2007.
The scenario that played out during the administration of the late President Yar’Adua (a Northerner) when his then deputy, Goodluck Jonathan (from the South), completed his first four year tenure and ran for another term is still fresh in the minds of the Northern political heavyweights, as they will not want to be shortchanged this time around.
Atiku Abubakar (70 years)
Ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar challenged Buhari for the APC presidential primary in 2014. In what shocked many political observers, Atiku emerged as second runner-up with 954 votes trailing Buhari and former Kano State governor and current senator, Rabiu Kwankwaso who emerged first runner up.
Proving to be a dogged fighter, the former Customs officer has since been oiling his political machinery ahead of 2019. Last week, he accused the President and the APC of abandoning him after they used his money and influence to win the last presidential election.
In what has unsettled the Presidency, Atiku’s presidential bid received a major boost when the Minister for Women Affairs, Aisha Alhassan, endorsed the former vice-president for the 2019 presidential election, describing him as her ‘mentor and godfather’.
This is the first time in recent political history that a serving Minister would endorse a presidential aspirant outside the Presidency, even when his/her boss – the incumbent President – is yet to formally declare his intention.
There are speculations that the Turakin Adamawa would return to PDP to actualise his presidential ambition, should Buhari seek re-election or the party picks someone else for the position.
To some analysts, the fact that the ex-Vice President donated N5million to Benue flood victims in response to the call by former President Goodluck Jonathan on his Facebook page is a clear indication that he is on his way back to PDP.
With large financial war chest and political structure, insiders say the APC chieftain has already sent emissaries to some political gladiators to declare his presidential ambition. The politician has won the admiration of people in the South by advocating for restructuring of the country. He also commands large followership in the North East and North Central.
However, his critics describe him as an opportunist and failed politician, having participated and lost in every presidential election, either at primaries or as candidate of a party since he left office in 2007.
Bola Tinubu (65 years)
The former Lagos State Governor has a vested interest in contesting for 2019 in the event that the President decides not to seek re-election.
Tinubu, whose bid to become running mate to Buhari in the buildup to the 2015 general election was truncated by the PDP bloc of the APC on the grounds that Muslim-Muslim ticket would hamper the party’s chances at the poll.
It remains to be seen if he would shelve his presidential ambition and support Osinbajo whom he nominated as Buhari’s running mate in the last general election.
As godfather of South West politics, Tinubu has a cult followership in the region and the financial wherewithal to prosecute a presidential election. Just like Atiku, he was one of those who helped Buhari and the APC financially to win the 2015 poll but sidelined after the party assumed office.
Like Osinbajo, the odds against him are that he is from the South-West where former President Obasanjo who governed the country for eight years hails from.
Bukola Saraki (54 years)
Call him the political bride of the 2019 presidential elections and you won’t be wrong.
The acquittal of Senate President Bukola Saraki by the Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT) of 18-count charges of false assets declaration has changed the political equation for 2019, as the nation’s Number Three citizen is now one of the strong contenders for the nation’s top job.
The former governor of Kwara State, who was among the PDP bigwigs that defected to the then opposition APC, dropped his presidential ambition for Buhari, two months before the party’s primaries in 2014. He was also one of the major financiers of Buhari’s presidential campaign in the last general election. With age on his side – 54, his cosmopolitan outlook and use of social media gives him an edge over most candidates.
One of his aides, who spoke on the matter, revealed that due to the controversy surrounding his emergence as Senate President, he may contest on another political platform. At a meeting with Kwara PDP stakeholders in Abuja recently, National Chairman of the party, Ahmed Makarfi, hinted that PDP is expecting political bigwigs in the state from other parties to defect to the party.
Saraki has large followership in North Central geopolitical zone; even as pundits say he may ride on this influence and with the help of his colleagues contest for the position of president in 2019.
However, this is debatable considering the fact that some lawmakers have been stoned by their angry constituents due to neglect by senators.
A school-of-thought believe that Saraki’s rift with the Presidency and by extension, his party, the APC, may prove tough for his chances to clinch the ticket if he decides to run under the party.
His political opponents perceive him as being over-ambitious but he will need to work hard on his corruption perception.
Nasir el-Rufai (57 years)
Although the Kaduna State Governor and former FCT Minister Nasir El-Rufai has denied nursing presidential ambition in 2019, analysts say this could change should the President not seek re-election.
El-Rufai was with President Buhari during the days of struggle in the now defunct CPC, as the President reportedly forced the former PDP stalwart on Kaduna APC governorship primaries. He is seen as fearless, as he stood up against the Senate as FCT Minister. Another plus for him is the restoration of Abuja Master Plan under his watch as FCT Minister.
But his critics say the governor’s biggest undoing is that he is not a trustworthy individual. They cite his scathing remarks about his former boss, Olusegun Obasanjo, Tinubu and pioneer EFCC Chairman Nuhu Ribadu in his book, ‘The Accidental Public Servant’. According to them, Obasanjo’s comments that el-Rufai can’t be trusted is a vote of no confidence in him. Coincidentally, Tinubu and Ribadu are now in the same party with him.
Ahmed Makarfi (60 years)
Chairman, PDP National Caretaker Committee, Ahmed Makarfi and former senator is said to be interested in contesting for the top job.
His non-confrontational brand of politics as well as favourable record in addressing the religious and ethnic violence as governor of Kaduna State has projected him as a tested leader.
His selling point is his acceptability across the country as the new face of opposition. He was able to rescue the PDP from the stranglehold of Ali Modu-Sheriff after a 14-month legal tussle.
However, he is perceived as being weak and not firm enough to handle the myriads of challenges facing the country. There’s also the speculation about his state of health. If the experiences of the late President Umaru Yar’Adua and President Buhari are anything to go by, Nigerians will not be ready to elect a terminally-ill candidate at the next election.
Aminu Tambuwal (51 years)
Another chieftain of the APC eyeing the presidential seat is Sokoto State Governor and former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwal. He shot into political limelight after he emerged Speaker of the legislative body, against the wishes of his former party (PDP) and the chieftains.
Like Saraki, he dropped out of the race for the presidential ticket of the All Progressives Congress in 2014.
Insiders say the APC chieftain has already embarked on ‘extensive consultations’, following the ill-health of President Buhari and he is nursing the ambition to succeed Buhari.
The governor’s selling point for the 2019 presidential election would be his ability to maintain peace in the House during his tenure as Speaker of the House of Representatives. In addition, his leadership style that many associates termed ‘inclusive’ could be another advantage for him.
He is viewed as an opportunist in some quarters for going against the wishes of his former party – PDP – to emerge House Speaker.
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso (60)
The immediate past governor of Kano State emerged first runner-up at the 2014 APC presidential primary. Kwanwanso, who represents Kano Central Senatorial District, was a two-time governor of the state.
He was one of the leaders in the mass defection from PDP in 2013, a development which won him a lot of followership going into the 2015 general elections.
His Kwankwasiyya group, which he established before the 2011 general elections, had spread to other states in the North, becoming a vibrant political brand.
Although he has been having a rough patch with his successor and former deputy governor, Abdullahi Ganduje, Kwankwaso still enjoys some measure of political followership up North.
Observers believe that as much as his influence in the North is well established, he would require a lot of political mastery to garner a measure of support down South.
Another school of thought believes that his visit to Ile-Ife after the clash between indigenes and the Hausa/Fulani community might be misconstrued for political reasons, a claim he has since denied.
Still, his likelihood of picking the ticket in the APC remains an uphill task, particularly if President Buhari decides to seek re-election.
David Mark (69 years)
Born in 1948, David Mark is a retired Nigerian Army Brigadier General and Nigeria’s longest serving Senate President (2007 to 2015). The former military governor of Niger State and ex-Minister of Communication brought political stability to the Senate, as he ended the era of ‘Banana Peel’.
He was also instrumental to the introduction of Doctrine of Necessity, on February 9, 2010 which saw a resolution by the National Assembly making the then Vice President Goodluck Jonathan the Acting President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces after the then President Yar’Adua, who for 78 days had been in Saudi Arabia receiving medical treatment, refused to formally empower the vice president to exercise full powers as Acting President, as provided for in Section 145 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended).
However, his years of working under the military are a big minus for him, as he is seen as one of ‘IBB Boys’. Many observers say it is about time he quit the political scene, citing his lackadaisical attitude to legislative activities after his re-election in 2015. He is regarded as one of the benchwarmers in the Eighth Senate, having sponsored only one bill without a single motion since June 9, 2015 when the Eighth Senate was inaugurated. He is more or less playing a siddon look role at the Senate.
OWEDE AGBAJILEKE, Abuja
