Growth in US oil output until 2025 will be the strongest seen by any country in the history of crude markets, making it the undisputed leader among global producers, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday as oil traded slightly lower at above $63 a barrel.
Technological advances that have enabled production from US shale oilfields to thrive will lead to growth of 8m barrels a day between 2010 and 2025, surpassing expansion rates enjoyed by any other nation.
The US will become the undisputed global oil and gas leader for decades to come, said Fatih Birol, IEA executive director as US crude exporters aim to contest markets in India and Asia with producers like Nigeria.
The US is now expected to account for 80 per cent of the increase in global supply over the same period.
US tight oil production, which includes crude, condensates and natural gas liquids (NGLs) will rise to 13m b/d by 2025, out of total US output of 16.9m b/d.
“The growth in production is unprecedented, exceeding all historical records, even Saudi Arabia after production from the mega Ghawar field or Soviet gas production from the super Siberian fields”, Mr Birol said.
The long-term projections form part of the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook that uses scenarios based on existing energy and climate policies as its main case.
The outlook also includes more ambitious scenarios envisaging the action required to reduce carbon emissions and air pollution in line with the Paris climate agreement and the UN sustainable development goals. In a low oil price model, where the energy body assesses what it would take to keep oil prices around current levels, US crude output would sustain current growth levels and the world would switch to electric cars at an even more rapid rate. In this case prices would stay between $50-$70 a barrel until 2040, the IEA said.
