Barring any major shock to the electoral process, Nigeria’s general elections are now to hold on the new dates of March 28 and April 11, 2015. Expectations are high and the political parties and their aspirants continue to make efforts to convince and win over the undecided voters. This article argues that whether the ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) retains power at the centre or any of the opposition political parties causes an upset, three crucial issues must start happening the morning after May 29, 2015.
First, modalities for constituting a ‘dream team’ of technocrats and politicians to design good policies and/or modify existing ones must be in place. In fact, the leading presidential contenders should by now have a tentative list of persons they think can bring substance to the table. Second, strategies of how Nigeria will move from rhetoric to taking practical measures to strengthen its institutions. Third but exogenous to the system, Nigeria needs good luck in the form of favourable external environment. Specifically, the country needs the oil markets to rebound from current levels so that public finances can improve. With good policies and good institutions to push through the policies, Nigeria will be better able to manage its oil earnings.
The import of policy was demonstrated by the great economist Nicholas Kaldor who spent most of his career devising policies to improve economic performance. In Nigeria, there is no doubt that since the end of military rule in 1999, there has been laudable policies designed to catalyze the economy, whether in terms of growth, development, economic empowerment or social inclusion.
However, this is not to say that the country did not record its fair share of successes during the military era. In fact, some will argue that some military regimes performed creditably when compared with the civilian administrations. At present, the minister of agriculture and his team have demonstrated capacity given the impressive policies guiding operations of the sector. Nigeria surely needs the likes of Akinwumi Adesina post May 29, 2015.
The design of good policies is necessary but not sufficient to produce desired results if institutions are weak. The significance of strong institutions was emphasized by prominent economists like Adam Smith who noted that institutions are a necessary foundation for societal cohesion and progress, while Thorsten Veblen viewed institutions as the basic building blocks of economic development.
Similarly, Douglass Cecil North argued that institutions matter in three critical ways. First, they establish property rights and economic incentives. Second, institutions matter because they must enforce the rules of the economic game. Third, institutions matter because they help determine how people view fairness and correct behaviour in the society.
Also, Mancur Olson noted that institutions are a bulwark against the power of vested interests, while US President Barack Obama opines that Africa does not need strongmen but it needs strong institutions.
Strong institutions also play a vital role with respect to the flow of information to economic agents. It is important to note that much has changed within the economics profession since the mid-1990s with the rise of the New Keynesian School led by Joseph Stiglitz. This school of thought examines individual decisions to obtain information and how the economy is affected when people have insufficient information. Stiglitz and his followers posit that the lack of information generates economic problems because economic agents need information to make informed decisions.
Therefore, post-2015 elections, Nigeria must begin to take measures to strengthen its institutions as this will boost information flow to the public and help manage expectations. Similarly, there should be a feedback mechanism from the public to government so that governance is not detached from the public. Government and its agencies must start complying with provisions of the Freedom of Information (FOI) Act 2011 except where requests for information contravenes Sections 11, 12, 14, 15, 16 and 26 of the Act. However, information must be available before it can be provided to the public.
Record keeping is extremely poor in most ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs). Government must invoke Section 2(1) of the FOI Act which states that ‘A public institution shall ensure that it records and keeps information about all its activities, operations and businesses’. This is one way that the MDAs can be strengthened and mechanism should be put in place for compliance.
Nigeria needs good luck going forward because public finances are currently strained due to low oil prices. The country has often been found in a situation described by Ludwig von Misses as follows: The individual is always ready to ascribe his good luck to his own efficiency and to take it as a well-deserved reward for his talent, application, and probity. But reverses of fortune he always charges to other people, and most of all to the absurdity of social and political institutions.
In the Nigerian context, when oil markets are bullish and revenue accretion high, resulting in economic growth (often not backed by real sector productivity), higher external reserves and currency stability, the successes are ascribed to good policies and dexterity of the economic managers. We often fail to use the oil windfall to develop the non-oil economy and expand the tax base. But when oil prices drop and revenue dwindles, we resort to blame game and suddenly realize the need to take measures to boost non-oil revenue.
In sum, expectations are soaring and will become higher from the morning after May 29, 2015 when another cycle of governance will commence. It will be unfair to say that the present administration has not done well, but it will also be hypocritical to exaggerate its achievements. The opposition political parties seek power because they think they can do things differently. The party in power will be immaterial to the majority of Nigerians if from the morning after May 29, 2015 they do not start experiencing the ‘human face’ of PDP’s transformation or the change promised by the opposition parties.
MAXWELL EKOR
