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In the complexity of governance, policy, and politics in Nigeria, the story of reforms is often told through the lens of revenue. Over the last three administrations, those of Goodluck Jonathan, Muhammadu Buhari, and now Bola Tinubu, there has been a common theme: the struggle to use government income to push structural change, ease economic hardship, and repair systemic dysfunction. Yet, time and again, reforms have either faltered due to political pressures or been undermined by opaque or misdirected spending.
During President Jonathan’s tenure (2010–2015), Nigeria was overflowing with petrodollars. Oil sold for over $100 per barrel, accounting for more than 70 percent of government revenue. That wealth presented a historic opportunity to restructure an economy overly reliant on oil and subsidies.
Jonathan’s administration attempted one of the boldest reforms in modern Nigerian history: the removal of the fuel subsidy in January 2012. The decision was met with nationwide protests under the ‘Occupy Nigeria’ movement, leading to a partial reversal of the policy. The fallout highlighted a fundamental tension: while the state needed to curb wasteful spending, citizens demanded accountability and relief.
In response, Jonathan created the Subsidy Reinvestment and Empowerment Programme (SURE-P), promising to redirect subsidy savings into infrastructure, healthcare, and youth employment. However, SURE-P became mired in inefficiencies and accusations of corruption, reinforcing public distrust. The episode showed how oil revenue, though abundant, was often used more to pacify resistance than to drive sustainable change.
When President Buhari assumed office in 2015, the era of oil windfall had ended. Prices plummeted, and with them, government revenue. Buhari’s administration championed anti-corruption and public finance reforms, enforcing the Treasury Single Account (TSA) and expanding the Integrated Payroll and Personnel Information System (IPPIS) to root out ghost workers.
Yet, these administrative reforms were undercut by fiscal realities. Revenue-to-GDP ratios dropped below 8 percent, one of the lowest in the world. Nigeria struggled to meet basic obligations, and the government increasingly relied on borrowing and central bank deficit financing.
Though Buhari signed the long-awaited Petroleum Industry Act in 2021, a significant step toward reforming the oil and gas sector, he failed to end fuel subsidies, which by 2022 cost the country over N4 trillion. In essence, government revenue was being drained to fund a politically convenient but economically harmful subsidy regime.
Even during the Covid-19 pandemic, when emergency fiscal responses were needed, the government’s spending through the Economic Sustainability Plan raised concerns over transparency. The contradiction was clear: a government committed to fighting corruption was burning revenue to prop up inefficient systems.
Looking diverse, President Tinubu’s administration has taken a markedly different approach. Barely days into office in May 2023, Tinubu removed the fuel subsidy, a move that had eluded his predecessors. In the same breath, he unified the exchange rate system, ending decades of dual-market manipulation that encouraged round-tripping and drained government coffers.
These moves have brought immediate fiscal relief. The savings from subsidy removal and gains from FX market reform have boosted government revenue, giving Tinubu a rare fiscal breather. However, these reforms came with harsh side effects: inflation soared, transportation costs doubled, and food prices skyrocketed.
To cushion this, the government launched the Renewed Hope Conditional Cash Transfer Programme, promising monthly stipends to vulnerable households. Yet, concerns linger about implementation, targeting accuracy, and the transparency of disbursed funds. Without a clear audit trail, citizens may begin to doubt whether their pain is matched by tangible gain.
Moreover, Tinubu’s administration has doubled down on efforts to boost internally generated revenue. The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and Nigeria Customs Service have embarked on reforms to widen the tax base and digitise revenue collection. While commendable, these efforts must ensure they do not stifle struggling small businesses already battered by inflation and FX instability.
The three administrations reveal a pattern: reforms are often dictated by fiscal desperation rather than a strategic long-term plan. Jonathan’s reforms were abandoned under public pressure despite high revenue; Buhari’s were partial and inconsistent due to low revenue and populist tendencies, and Tinubu’s are bolder but are being tested by inflation and public trust deficits.
The core issue remains how revenue is spent, not just how much is generated. Nigerians have heard promises before: from SURE-P to social investment programmes. What they want is clear, transparent use of public funds that leads to visible improvements in their lives.
To move from talks to results, Nigeria must institutionalise revenue transparency and reform accountability. First, the government should publish monthly reports on subsidy savings and FX gains, showing exactly where the funds are going. Second, independent bodies should be empowered to monitor reform-related spending. Third, a greater share of revenue must go into productive infrastructure, roads, power, and schools and not administrative overheads, and any future reform must be people-centred, with deliberate social protection measures before, not after, implementation.
Above all, the revenue conversation must shift beyond oil. Reform is sustainable only when Nigeria grows and taxes a broad-based economy, from agriculture to services and technology.
Government revenue should be a lever for transformation, not a tool to preserve the status quo. From Jonathan to Buhari to Tinubu, Nigeria’s reform journey has been one of bold desires, cautious reversals, and hard-won gains. The opportunity before us now is to ensure that revenue, earned or saved, is finally used to deliver the promise of reform to the people.
