That Nigeria’s official name is the Federal Republic of Nigeria and its capital is in Abuja are known and verifiable facts. And that if subject to dispute, it will be an exercise in futility. That the country’s area size is 923,768 squarekilometres will meet a few objections. Though demographic figures are often politicized, a well conducted census can sort out population palavers.
How about statistical data about Nigeria’s economy? There are as many figures as national, multilateral and private and non-governmental organizations. The release of data about Nigeria’s economic performance in the first three months of 2009 by the Federal Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) raises oft-repeated, but pertinent worries.
Firstly, the data is a tad too late to be of any use. Sincerely, the reports did not tell us anymore than we could not guess. The vital statistics of an economy, though unavailable on demand, is preferably one week old, one month at the least. Coming a week shy of crossing into the second half of 2009 suggests we can expect the second quarter report by the end of the year. We hope not.
Other than agriculture, and its continued boost to GDP, oil and non-oil receipts eg, tax, performed poorly. We must however note that the timing of the report was poor. Also, no data on unemployment was provided. Admittedly monthly inflation figures are now becoming a norm. However more can still be done.
Data on inflation and unemployment, unlike fires, are not highly visible phenomena. Without timely and accurately measured economic variables, proffering solutions will be in vain. We dare say policy formulation is as good as the data collected. Otherwise, determining the nature of our current and potential economic problems will be impossible. Businesses can neither thrive nor count on such data. If the data was accurate and broad, a business could rely on it as lagging data – to explain shortfalls or above average performance in the past. When the data is unreliable, narrow and untimely, plans based on such information are likely to go awry.
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When economic data fails to meet some criteria eg, accuracy, depth and breadth as well as timeliness, it neither helps businesses nor government. Particularly those statutorily charged with managing the economy. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), despite being revamped, is falling short. Thus, analysts tend to avoid quoting these figures provided by the government agency. If they do at all, they compare them with those of multilateral agencies. Interestingly, these agencies often have more up-to-date information about Nigeria’s economy. These shortfalls compound the problem of forecasting. If yesterday’s data is available month’s after it occurred, anticipating the future becomes even more difficult.
Planning then becomes a game of puzzles. Key pieces are missing, but can be sourced from different places with degrees of variance. Prices, demand, inflationary trend, employment changes are poorly estimated. That the compilation of data on country’s unemployment figures just commenced means past resources spent on tackling unemployment and alleviating poverty may not have been optimally allocated.
Collecting and processing data can be tedious. But once the appropriate people and processes are put in place, difficulties like the date, nature of the data and its incompleteness can be improved upon. Reliable, comprehensible and relevant information aids planning. More so, it means past mistakes are less likely to be repeated.
The present situation does not augur well for diversifying the economy. The crux therefore, is improving the processes and equipping competent people. Charging them with the gathering and presenting accurate, timely and relevant economic data on a pre-determined and regular basis.
