For investors with patient capital, opportunity is beckoning as global demand for infrastructure investment has been projected to reach around $106 tillion by 2040. This huge amount is spread over various sectors in which investors can put their money.
They are transportation and logistics, $36 trillion; energy and power, $23 trillion; digital infrastructure, $19 trillion, social infrastructure, $16 trillion, waste and water, $6 trillion, agriculture, $5 trillion, and defence, $2 trillion. These amounts represent the value of opportunity in each sector.
Due to new trends in developments, the concept of infrastructure is evolving, signifying that physical asset definition that have underpinned societies, e.g. roads, and power grids have changed to now include artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and electric vehicles.
In many cases, new infrastructure components are incorporated into existing systems. This redefinition requires a nuanced perspective from governments, investors, and operators. This is essential for stakeholders to create the right solutions to pertinent challenges while simultaneously providing numerous opportunities.
A new report by Panterra, a research and investment company, says that an estimated $3 trillion infrastructure finance shortfall exists in Nigeria over the next 30 years, adding that long-term patient capital is required, but not the easiest to get.
“Some indigenous firms have struggled to issue bonds with good credit ratings for institutional investors. Pension funds may allocate up to 15 percent in infrastructure bonds.
Still, actual exposure to corporate and infrastructure bonds remains well below these limits – relative to industry assets under management (AUM). Institutional investors are mostly interested in Federal Government Securities, and are typically reluctant to incur credit risk for infrastructure projects,” the report says.
It notes that investment patterns are shifting toward newer asset types. Digital and renewable infrastructure options are expanding rapidly. Traditional transport appears to be on the decline. Cross sector investments are also rising.
This is due to growing interdependencies. Private investors face obstacles, including competitive deal environments and longer holding periods. This further affects valuations and cross-border transactions. Investors are pursuing value-creation strategies such as platform consolidation and operational improvements.
The data shows that several Nigerian states have strong fiscal capacity for infrastructure investment. Revenue availability for capital expenditure (CAPEX) ranged from 62 percent to 77 percent. Anambra (77 percent) leads in being well positioned to fund new infrastructure projects.
Oil-producing states, Akwa Ibom (74 percent), Imo (68 percent), and Delta (68 percent) prioritise CAPEX over OPEX. This is despite commodity price risks. States such as Abia (70 percent) and Gombe (67 percent) demonstrate improving fiscal space. Overall, the figures suggest increased subnational infrastructure investment potential.
Several Nigerian states appear to be approaching high utilisation levels. This ranges from 86 percent to 92 percent and suggests mounting pressure on existing infrastructure. It also points to a need for efficiency-enhancing upgrades more than greenfield projects.
In 2026, infrastructure investment in these states is likely to improve service reliability, presenting demand fundamentals to support private capital participation.
