…Sept hike of 548,000 bpd agreed, sources say
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies have agreed on another bumper oil production increase for September, completing its current tranche of supply revival one year early as the group moves to reclaim its share of global crude markets.
However, conspicuously absent from the key producers’ list was Nigeria, a major African oil exporter and long-time OPEC member, raising questions about its standing and participation within the alliance.
In a virtual meeting held on August 3, 2025, eight core OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, agreed to initiate a gradual reversal of previously announced voluntary production cuts.
These cuts, totalling 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), were implemented across multiple phases since April and November 2023 to stabilise prices amid uncertain market conditions.
Beginning in September 2025, these eight nations will adjust their production levels upward by 547,000 bpd, representing the fifth monthly tranche of the phased restoration strategy. The move follows a prior agreement reached on December 5, 2024, which outlined the gradual reintroduction of supply through April 2025 and beyond.
Notably absent from the production adjustment schedule was Nigeria, a country often grappling with underperformance, security challenges in the Niger Delta, and infrastructure constraints that have hindered it from meeting OPEC+ quotas in recent years.
Nigeria’s absence raises eyebrows
Energy analysts and market observers are interpreting Nigeria’s exclusion as a reflection of its prolonged struggle to meet production targets.
While OPEC+ has in the past shown leniency toward members facing domestic challenges, Nigeria’s persistent shortfalls may have eroded its influence within the group.
“Missing from the table doesn’t necessarily mean Nigeria is out of OPEC+, but it suggests the alliance is moving forward without relying on a country that has consistently failed to deliver its allocated share,” said Adaobi Okwuosa, a senior energy analyst with the Lagos-based Centre for Petroleum Strategy.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer by reserves, has seen its output decline significantly in the past two years, frequently falling below its OPEC quota due to pipeline vandalism, crude theft, and operational inefficiencies. Despite ongoing reforms in the Nigerian oil and gas sector, including the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), tangible improvements in production have been slow.
Meanwhile, other OPEC+ members are stepping up.
According to the official production table released on Sunday, Saudi Arabia will raise output to 9.978 million bpd, Russia to 9.449 million bpd, and Iraq to 4.22 million bpd in September 2025. UAE, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman will also increase output in line with the phased adjustments.
OPEC’s move to reclaim market share
The group’s decision to increase supply comes at a time when oil inventories are at multi-year lows and global economic indicators suggest a recovery in demand. The phased return is designed to avoid flooding the market while enabling OPEC+ to reassert its dominance amid growing production from non-OPEC countries such as the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana.
“The eight participating countries are implementing this production adjustment in a coordinated and flexible manner, with the option to pause or reverse if market conditions require,” the group said in a joint statement. The flexibility is intended to preserve price stability while gradually reclaiming market share lost during the downturn.
OPEC+ reiterated its intention to monitor conformity closely, with monthly meetings to assess market fundamentals, compensation mechanisms, and progress toward agreed targets. The next meeting is scheduled for September 7, 2025.
The latest hike caps a dramatic shift from OPEC and its partners from defending prices to opening the taps, which has helped put a lid on oil and gasoline futures in the face of geopolitical tensions and strong seasonal demand, offering some relief for drivers and a win for US President Donald Trump. The accelerated increases have helped fuel expectations for a global supply surplus later in the year.
Sunday’s decision, confirming an agreement in principle first reported on Saturday by Bloomberg, also comes as Trump intensifies diplomatic pressure on OPEC co-leader Russia. Trump has threatened Moscow with secondary tariffs on its oil customers unless there is a swift ceasefire in the war in Ukraine.
A disruption to Russian flows would threaten to drive up crude prices and run counter to Trump’s repeated call for cheaper oil, as he pushes the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
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Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak made a rare visit to Riyadh on Thursday to discuss “cooperation between the countries” with Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. The two countries have jointly led OPEC since its creation almost a decade ago.
While Nigeria is still officially a member of OPEC, its non-inclusion in the latest phase of production adjustments could undermine its influence and reduce its access to high-level strategic decisions affecting global oil supply.
Implications for Nigeria
The implications for Nigeria are twofold. On the one hand, it may be spared from the pressure of increasing output it currently cannot deliver. On the other hand, its absence could isolate it from coordinated pricing and supply strategies, limiting its ability to shape market outcomes and benefit from collective stability.
Industry stakeholders within Nigeria are urging the federal government and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) to urgently address production inefficiencies and security issues that have plagued the sector.
