The global order is changing, rapidly and irreversibly. From Washington to Beijing, from Brussels to the BRICS, the once-familiar structure of international relations in a globalised, multilateral world is giving way to a multipolar, unpredictable, and interest-driven reality. For a Nigeria with continental ambitions hobbled by domestic challenges and a seemingly infirm civil democratic order, this is not a time for ball-watching. It is a time for a strategic recalibration of our foreign policy.
The Nigerian national security establishment (comprising the intelligence, military and foreign services) must awaken to the new global dynamic that in less than three years has been forcefully put before us by a whimsical president of the United States. The assumptions that underpinned Nigeria’s post-independence international posture—alignment with the West, reliance on moral authority, Afrocentrism, and a preference for multilateralism—are no longer sufficient. Today, national survival and prosperity demand a foreign policy grounded in realism, foresight and African agency.
This Editorial Board distils lessons from six renowned international affairs thinkers — Bolaji Akinyemi, Francis Fukuyama, Samuel Huntington, John Mearsheimer, George Obiozor and Jeffrey Sachs—whose ideas, though varied, converge on a single truth: the global order is fragmenting, and only nations that adapt with clarity and conviction will thrive.
The world is not what it was
Francis Fukuyama, known for his “End of History” thesis, now warns that democracy is retreating worldwide. Institutions are eroding. The liberal world order is in crisis. For Nigeria, this underscores the need to shore up domestic credibility and institutional strength if it is to have a voice on the world stage.
Samuel Huntington, though long departed, remains relevant. His “Clash of Civilisations” foresaw the rise of identity politics in global affairs. Nigeria—a deeply plural society—must therefore craft a foreign policy that reflects not just state interests but cultural awareness and regional sensitivity.
John Mearsheimer, the unapologetic realist, argues that power—not ideals—drives international behaviour. His views resonate in today’s environment of great-power rivalry. Nigeria, he might suggest, must stop seeking validation from the West and start pursuing sovereign interests with strategic discipline.
Jeffrey Sachs brings a different lens: development, justice, and climate sustainability. In a world plagued by inequality and climate stress, Nigeria can no longer afford a reactive foreign policy. It must integrate development diplomacy, green diplomacy and digital diplomacy as tools for both influence and survival.
The sum of these views is echoed—often with more urgency—by two of Nigeria’s most formidable diplomatic minds: Professors Bolaji Akinyemi and George Obiozor.
Nigeria’s missed opportunities and unclaimed role
Professor Akinyemi calls for strategic autonomy, led by an African agency. His abiding conviction that Nigeria can anchor a “Concert of Medium Powers”—a coalition of emerging states that shape global norms and not just react to them—has long since found validation in the establishment of the BRICS, which has now emerged clearly as a counterpoint to the West. He has consistently argued that non-alignment, not neutrality, must guide Nigeria’s engagement in global power contests.
Professor Obiozor, a seasoned diplomat of blessed memory, offered a sobering viewpoint. He warned that without internal coherence, Nigeria’s foreign policy will remain aspirational. For Obiozor, foreign policy is the outward projection of domestic legitimacy. No amount of grand rhetoric can substitute for institutional consistency and elite consensus.
Their arguments lead to a clear diagnosis: Nigeria is adrift in an ocean of global change, without a compass. And the cost of inaction is rising.
Risk everywhere
Nigeria is challenged on all sides. The U.S.–China rivalry could polarise global trade and diplomacy, forcing African countries into impossible choices. Climate change is already reshaping global financial flows and development frameworks. From Senegal on the Atlantic to Sudan on the Red Sea and down through Cameroon, the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo, jihadi insurgencies, civil war and lawlessness fuelled by a rabid quest for plundering mineral resources are hollowing out democracy and the rule on Nigeria’s northern flank.
The rise of economic nationalism and the weakening of the multilateral system threaten Nigeria’s access to trade, investment and aid. The ability and capacity of Africans to trade with each other are themselves deterred by the abject lack of legacy and digital transportation links right across the continent. Africa’s marginal voice in global governance may persist and will only worsen unless proactively addressed.
Nigeria’s strategic opportunity
Yet within these challenges lies opportunity. Nigeria can lead Africa’s diplomatic recalibration. We need to reframe our foreign policy doctrines to emphasise sovereignty, strategic realism and regional leadership. We must reinvest in the country’s diplomatic architecture and anchor strong West African diplomacy through ECOWAS.
Five actions for realignment
There are five initiatives that can be taken. First, undertake a presidential national security and foreign policy review. Second, push for the AU to host a summit of African Heads of State and state Africa’s views about the evolving global (dis)order; or alternatively, host such a summit in Abuja. Third, establish an active secretariat for the National Security and Defence Council established under the 1999 Constitution and populate it with staff drawn from the various MDAs whose work touches on anything that affects national security. Fourth, diversify Nigeria’s strategic alliances beyond traditional Western relationships and work actively to repair damaged regional relationships. Fifth, embed sustainability and innovation in Nigeria’s global engagement.
Conclusion: A new strategic posture for a new era
This is a defining moment for Nigeria. Foreign policy is not a ceremonial endeavour. It is a tool of national survival and growth. A strong foreign policy gives Nigeria bargaining power in a tough world. A weak one ensures it remains a pawn in global contests it cannot influence or even arbitrate. The intellectual legacy of Akinyemi and Obiozor, reinforced by the global perspectives of Fukuyama, Huntington, Mearsheimer and Sachs, shows us what is at stake and how to begin anew. Doing nothing is not an option.
Nigeria must step out of old paradigms. It must define its interests clearly, act with realism, lead with purpose and rally other African countries to speak with a coherent voice. Only then can Nigeria rise—on its own terms—in a world where power is shifting, fast and without sentiment.
