Nigeria brought the timetable for next year’s election forward and announced new rules that appeared to catch the opposition off guard.
Presidential and National Assembly elections will be held on Jan. 16, roughly a month earlier than was previously scheduled, the Independent National Electoral Commission said. State elections will follow three weeks later.
It’s the earliest a presidential vote has been called since the return of democracy in 1999. Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress, who won the presidency against a divided opposition three years ago, is widely expected to retain power.
“2027 is shaping up to be a home straight for Tinubu,” said Ikemesit Effiong, Managing Partner at Lagos-based SBM Intelligence. “The opposition may spring a surprise in a few states if it gets its house in order, but that is unlikely to be enough to dent the president’s re-election momentum.”
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Bola Tinubu
Tinubu has been endorsed by the APC for another term, and securing the party’s ticket is likely to be routine.
Nigerian assets have been getting a closer look from foreign investors who’ve warmed to the president’s economic reforms. The inflation rate has more halved to 15% since he took office, and the central bank has begun lowering borrowing costs, while the economy expanded 3.9% last year, the most since 2022.
The changes haven’t been as popular among ordinary Nigerians, who faced steep price increases after he phased out fuel subsidies and allowed the naira to float.
Security conditions have also worsened on his watch. An Islamist insurgency in the northeast persists, banditry and kidnapping have spread into southern states previously considered stable, and the US has inserted itself to ensure Nigeria confronts what it says is the killing of Christians.
Vice President Atiku Abubakar is widely expected to win the nomination from the African Democratic Congress, the main opposition coalition.
He has been contesting presidential elections since 1992, and many view this as his final throw of the dice.
Abubakar campaigns as a market-oriented reformer advocating privatisation and decentralisation of power.
His support base in southern Nigeria has shrunk, however, and even if he does win the ADC primary, he may struggle to convince its young supporters who shunned him in the previous vote to back him next year.
Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s candidate in the last election, remains popular among urban and younger voters, but his Obidient Movement, which underpinned his campaign, has splintered. Factions within the party also prompted him to join the broader ADC coalition. His challenge lies in navigating the ADC primary, which will require negotiating and internal deal-making skills that he has yet to show he has mastered.
If he wins the coalition’s nomination, Tinubu could have a fight on his hands in urban centres and parts of the southeast and north-central regions where Obi previously dominated.
It is hard to see his young supporters rallying behind another opposition candidate if he doesn’t make the cut however.
Election Reforms
Changes to the electoral rules, several of which address disputes that defined the 2023 vote, may have left the ADC playing catch-up.
The law now requires results from polling stations to be transmitted electronically in real-time, but that has been challenged by the ADC because the lawmakers provided the option of paper collation of results were internet fails.
Political parties are also concerned that the outcome of party primaries will be determined by registered members. That’s problematic for the ADC, which only recently constituted itself as an alliance — meaning a larger number of its supporters have yet to formally join its ranks and may be excluded from voting.
The early onset of the primaries next month also complicates things for the ADC, which has been “beset by political wrangling over who will helm its ticket,” said SBM’s Effiong, leaving Tinubu in the drivers’ seat.
