Ayo Kusamotu, senior lawyer and political strategist, is one of the managing partners at Kusamotu & Kusamotu. He heads the China practice Section of the firm by rendering legal services to Chinese State- owned enterprises doing business in Africa. In this exclusive interview with Iniobong Iwok, he said that for President Bola Tinubu’s reforms to gain public legitimacy and become sustainable, the administration must urgently bridge this gap by delivering tangible results in all sectors of the economy. Kusamotu spoke on a wide range of issues in the polity, including the wave of defections to the ruling party and what the opposition coalition leaders need to do to stand a chance against the incumbent in 2027. Excerpts:
What is your take on the performance of Bola Tinubu’s administration, his reform policies, especially with the recent drop in inflation?
The Tinubu administration has demonstrated a serious commitment to macroeconomic reform.
The recent decline in inflation is an encouraging, albeit early, validation of policies focused on fiscal discipline, revenue diversification, and exchange rate normalization.
However, a significant chasm persists between these improving statistics and the lived reality of most Nigerians.
For these reforms to gain public legitimacy and become sustainable, the administration must urgently bridge this gap by delivering tangible results: job creation, increased real incomes, lower food prices, and improved public infrastructure.
The diagnosis is correct and the treatment has begun, but the patient is still in pain. The next 12-24 months are critical to determine if this economic stabilization translates into broadly shared prosperity.
Amid criticism, the administration has increased borrowing, which it stated is to fund capital expenditures. What is your view?
In theory, borrowing to finance productive capital expenditure such as infrastructure, energy, and transport is a sound economic strategy. The profound risk, however, lies in execution. Without stringent transparency, impeccable project management, and a steadfast commitment to fiscal discipline, this borrowing could exacerbate Nigeria’s debt burden without generating the intended growth dividends.
The ultimate measure of success will be whether each naira borrowed translates into a visible, functional asset that boosts economic productivity.
PDP governors are defecting to the ruling party ahead of the 2027 polls. What is your take?
This trend presents a dual narrative for Nigerian democracy. On the surface, it reflects a fluid political landscape where allegiances can shift. On a deeper level, it signals a potentially alarming erosion of a robust opposition, nudging the system toward one-party hegemony.
A healthy democracy thrives on vigorous competition and credible alternatives; a constant drain of opposition figures into the ruling party undermines this fundamental principle.
There are reports that opposition politicians are pressured to join the ruling party. Do you believe this, and why is the ruling party desperate?
These reports are credible. While some defections are strategic and voluntary, the political operating environment often makes alignment with the ruling party the path of least resistance for accessing patronage and political survival.
The ruling party’s fervor in courting defectors is less about desperation and more about a calculated strategy of consolidation.
It aims to create an insurmountable political advantage, control subnational resources, demoralize the opposition, and project an image of invincibility ahead of 2027. This is a classic tactic by a dominant party seeking to pre-emptively neutralize any viable challenge.
Political watchers say defections signal disarray in the opposition. Does this mean Tinubu would easily win re-election in 2027?
While the defections grant Tinubu and the APC a significant tactical advantage, declaring his re-election “assured” would be premature. The final outcome will be determined by three pivotal factors: Firstly, governance performance: Can the administration demonstrate clear improvements in economic well-being and national security that voters can feel by 2026?
Secondly, opposition cohesion: Can the fragmented opposition parties overcome their differences to present a united front with a single candidate?
Thirdly, APC’s internal unity, will the ruling party itself remain a cohesive unit, or will internal fractures emerge as the election nears?
Tinubu is the clear front-runner, but the race is far from over.
What is your take on the formation of ADC and the fusion of opposition politicians into the party?
Consolidating opposition forces under the banner of an existing party like the ADC is a pragmatic shortcut, avoiding the arduous process of building a new party from scratch.
However, the challenges are profound. For this coalition to be more than a paper tiger, it must: Define a compelling identity. Establish a clear, cohesive ideology and policy platform that distinguishes it from the APC.
Practice internal democracy: Create a transparent power-sharing structure that genuinely integrates new members and avoids becoming a vehicle for recycled elites.
Build grassroots trust: convince the electorate that it represents a genuine alternative, not merely an alliance of convenience for disgruntled politicians.
Without this, the ADC risks being perceived as a transient vessel for political opportunism, incapable of mounting a serious national challenge.
The National Assembly, as part of the Electoral Act amendment, is proposing the general election be held in November 2026 to allow disputes to be resolved. What is your view?
The intent to provide ample time for electoral dispute resolution is laudable and addresses a critical flaw in the current process.
However, this proposed shift requires careful calibration. Moving the election timeline must be balanced against the risk of creating a prolonged period of “campaign mode” that paralyzes governance.
The success of this change hinges on simultaneously strengthening the capacity of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the judiciary to handle the compressed legal timeline efficiently, ensuring the change delivers its intended benefit without unintended consequences.
Does it worry you that opposition politicians may not arrive at a consensus candidate to challenge Tinubu, and who should the coalition present?
Absolutely. A fractured opposition, presenting multiple candidates, would virtually guarantee Tinubu’s re-election by splitting the anti-incumbent vote. For the coalition to be viable, it must rally behind a consensus candidate who possesses:
National Appeal: The ability to connect with voters across regional and ethnic divides.
Perceived Integrity: A track record that fosters trust and embodies the change narrative.
Coalition-Building Skill: The political stature to unify various opposition factions.
The political terrain currently favors the ruling APC, which is effectively using its incumbency to consolidate power.
However, the 2027 election will ultimately be a referendum on governance—specifically, the Tinubu administration’s ability to translate economic reforms into palpable improvements in the lives of citizens.
The key variables to watch are: The cost of living: The single most important factor will be the price of food, fuel, and other essentials.
Opposition arithmetic: The ability of opposition parties to forge a strategic, unified coalition.
The Candidate Factor: The emergence of a credible, consensus opposition candidate with national appeal.
While the APC holds the advantage, the volatility of the Nigerian electorate and the urgency of public demands mean that 2027 is far from a foregone conclusion.
