The above question appears to reflect the mood conveyed by much of the global news coverage as delegates gathered last week for the 30th Climate Conference of the Parties, COP 30, in Belém, Brazil.
The boycott of the COP 30 conference in Belém, Brazil, indicates that the world’s climate efforts are losing steam. It’s not just a diplomatic protest; it reflects a deeper split in global climate governance. Although the Belem Climate Conference didn’t see a mass boycott, the absence of key leaders, including the US, China, and India, along with visible protests from civil society groups, delivered a strong message. While most countries sent delegations, the leaders of the three largest carbon-emitting nations chose not to attend. Their absence highlighted a growing divide in global climate politics, showing that momentum is fading into exhaustion.
Reading the climate pulse
It seems many countries are slowing down their efforts, even as Europe continues to put in relatively more effort. Several developing nations claim they plan to cut emissions enough to hit the 1.5-degree target by 2030, but their actions so far show a gap between their goals and actual progress. And with the US once again stepping back from the Paris Agreement, a move that isn’t new, the outlook for the climate talks in Brazil becomes even more uncertain.
However, the retreat reflects growing disillusionment with a global system that has repeatedly failed to deliver on its promises, most notably the long-delayed $100 billion annual climate finance pledge to vulnerable nations. Trust has eroded, and Belem became the focal point for that frustration. At the same time, rising geopolitical tensions- from US–China rivalry to shifting alliances across the Global South- have weakened the unity forged in Paris and Glasgow.
The irony is clear: global urgency is slowing down just as climate impacts worsen. The world has experienced consecutive years of extreme heat, along with increasing floods, droughts, and food insecurity across Africa and Asia.
In Nigeria, where climate pressures are rising and the push for fair and green growth is becoming increasingly urgent, the message from Belem is unmistakable. The global landscape is fragmenting, and navigating this new reality will require steadier leadership at home and a more deliberate, strategic approach to climate diplomacy abroad.
High vulnerability, Low policy coherence
Nigeria is at the forefront of climate vulnerability, and its policy response remains disjointed and slow. Climate change is no longer a future threat; it is a current, tangible reality. The country faces some of the most severe climate risks in Africa. In 2022, floods displaced over 1.4 million people, desertification continues to engulf farmlands across the North at a rate of more than 350,000 hectares annually, and extreme heat endangers productivity in cities, where temperatures now regularly surpass 40°C during peak dry seasons. These shocks are not abstract; they have a direct impact on food security, livelihoods, health, and economic stability.
Despite this exposure, Nigeria’s climate policy landscape remains characterised by weak coordination, poor enforcement, and outdated data systems. The National Climate Change Act provides a framework, but implementation varies inconsistently across ministries and states. Critical climate data, such as flood mapping, emissions inventories, and vulnerability assessments, are often incomplete or outdated, which limits the country’s ability to plan effectively. Additionally, energy-transition planning lags: although Nigeria has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2060, funding for renewables remains limited, and reliance on diesel generation continues in key sectors.
A widening gap between climate commitments and actual budget priorities worsens this disconnect. Adaptation financing makes up only a small part of national spending, despite the increasing impacts of climate change. This gap reflects the global retreat seen in Belem; an era where ambition is loudly announced but poorly put into action.
Nigeria risks drifting into the same climate apathy unless it strengthens policy coherence, enforces climate laws, modernises climate data systems, and aligns budgets with climate realities. Without these corrective steps, vulnerability will continue to rise while preparedness remains dangerously thin.
Missing climate finance
The limited participation of major global powers at the Belem Climate Conference revealed a deeper issue: climate finance is shrinking just as countries like Nigeria need it most. Nigeria depends heavily on concessional funding for adaptation, expanding renewable energy, and building climate-resilient infrastructure. However, global disengagement means that the long-promised $100 billion per year in climate finance remains inconsistently delivered, and new funding pledges are becoming more uncertain.
As global support falters, adaptation costs are shifting onto Nigeria’s already strained domestic budget. The country faces annual climate-related losses of $7–10 billion due to flooding, coastal erosion, and agricultural disruptions. However, fiscal constraints, including high debt servicing, revenue volatility, and competing social needs, limit the government’s ability to scale climate investments without external backing.
This creates difficult trade-offs: Should Nigeria prioritise short-term economic stabilization or long-term green transition? Should scarce public funds go to flood defenses, renewable projects, or food security interventions? These choices become even sharper as climate shocks intensify.
Without credible, predictable climate finance, Nigeria risks locking millions into deeper climate-driven poverty. Inclusive, climate-resilient growth cannot be achieved on domestic resources alone. Global disengagement doesn’t just slow progress, it widens inequality and jeopardises the country’s development trajectory.
Signs of optimism
There are glimmers of hope, albeit few: Many countries are trying to decarbonise and are figuring out how to do so, including Nigeria. In addition, the costs of renewable energy have decreased significantly over the past decade. According to the United Nations (UN) in 2024, global investment in clean energy reached $2 trillion – about $800 billion more than in fossil fuels, making solar power the cheapest form of electricity in history. The downside, however, is that the vast majority of the capital is not flowing to where it is most needed, particularly in Africa, according to Annalena Baerbock, the President of the UN General Assembly.
According to her “more than 600 million Africans still lack access to electricity, even though the continent’s renewable energy potential is 50 times greater than the world’s projected electricity demand by 2040”.
Nigeria can turn global climate fatigue into momentum by aligning development with data-driven risk mapping, enforcing state-level adaptation plans, and investing in green infrastructure and climate-smart agriculture. With more decisive domestic action and bold advocacy for fairer global climate finance, Nigeria can anchor climate action within its inclusive growth agenda and lead, even as global ambition weakens.
