The African Development Bank in its recently released Africa Economic Outlook report for 2009 projected that real GDP growth rate for Nigeria will plummet to 4% in the current year from the 5.3 % growth achieved for 2008. This 4% growth projection is remarkably at variance with the Federal Government’s projection for a 7.5% growth rate for 2009. While this variance in growth projections may send signals of the overall influence of optimism on growth projections or statistics generated by government and its agencies, it is equally an indication of the perennial conflict of data arising from an inefficient data gathering and dissemination culture in the country. Essentially, the plummeting of growth rate rather than a sustained increase poses a serious challenge to our economic management team.
We are convinced that the business of country governance is a serious one laden with realistic challenges and should not give room for exaggerated expectations by those who govern, possibly for the sake of boosting local and external confidence. Often, such exaggerated projections are punctured by alternate international and even local sources. And when this occurs, it portrays inefficiency or an improper assessment of the tasks of governance.
Agencies of government concerned with generating and compiling statistics should always endeavour to do it with utmost caution and a high degree of integrity. Furthermore the National Bureau of Statistics and the research and statistics departments in ministries and parastatals should be appropriately equipped with the right calibre of staff, adequate funding and resources so that they can execute their tasks properly. Whilst acknowledging that optimism is a cherished mindset, it however should not be a basis for self-delusion or a platform for painting an unreal picture of the Nigerian condition.
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It is remarkable that the low growth rate projection for 2009 is dependent on the epileptic and dismal performance of the oil sector since the last quarter of 2008. This is owing to the plummeting of oil prices in the international market, the interruption of production in the Niger Delta as a result of the incidence of violent activities of local militias and the decrease in production quota. An economy largely dependent on the fortunes of an unstable oil market gives occasion for undulating growth rate figures.
The relatively poor contribution of the industrial and agricultural sector to GDP and consequently the country’s economic growth is worrisome and provides a ready challenge for government in the country. Beyond rhetoric, government at all levels and all stakeholders in the civil society should focus on moving the Nigerian economy from a largely oil based one to a diversified one variedly dependent on other revenue yielding economic activities. The spate of factory closures across the industrial sectors is an indication of a de-industrialization trend that further endangers economic growth.
Furthermore, the issues of growth rates should not becloud that of the quality of life and wellbeing of the citizenry. Government should pursue economic growth in a manner that such growth will positively impact on the human development of the populace. Access to employment, qualitative education, healthcare, potable water, electricity and other necessary social infrastructure should not be compromised. The Nigerian growth experience must be that which propels overall development and creates a positive multiplier effect across all spheres of human activity.
