Demand for air travel in the third quarter of 2014 grew by 5.3 percent measured in revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs over September 2013 as African airlines record lower traffic apparently due to adverse economic developments in some parts of the continent.
According to global passenger traffic results for September released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), an umbrella body for airlines globally, the positive growth trend for passenger demand continues even though the performance was slightly below the August year-over-year rise of 6.3 percent.
September capacity rose 5.1 percent and load factor rose 0.2 percentage points to 80.3 percent.
“Overall, demand for passenger travel is growing in line with expectations. We saw, however, some shifting of the sources of that growth in September, largely driven by economic factors. The strengthening of the US and Asian economies was offset by weakness in Europe and Latin America,” Tony Tyler, IATA’s director general and CEO, said.
According to him, “the three big stories in September were Europe, Russia and India.” European airlines reported 3.9 percent growth for international demand.
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This, according to IATA, is a significant drop from the 7.0 percent reported in August indicating the impact of the Air France crew strike and a general weakening of European economic prospects.
African airlines experienced a 1.8 percent rise in international RPKs in September compared to a year ago, down significantly from August year-over-year growth of 7 percent.
Tyler noted that the deceleration in growth rates cannot be immediately interpreted as a trend change as significant volatility in volumes exists for this region.
However, the effect of any Ebola-related traffic downturn is mostly restricted to Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, but these markets comprise a very small proportion of overall African traffic.
“Adverse economic developments in some parts of the continent are responsible for the weakness in international air travel for regional carriers. However, South Africa has managed to avoid entering a recession, which could help moderate downward pressure on air travel. Capacity rose 2.6 percent and load factor fell 0.6 percentage points to 70.5 percent, the lowest among all regions,” he said.
European carriers recorded growth of 3.9 percent in September compared to a year ago, a significant slowdown on the August rise of 7.0 percent.
Along with the impact of the 14-day Air France crew strike, this also reflects a lapse in the Eurozone economic recovery.
Indicators show a weakening in key economies including Germany, owing to the Russia-Ukraine crisis and related sanctions, as well as a reversal in prior improvements in consumer confidence. With capacity up just 2.6 percent, load factor was 84.7 percent, the highest for any region and a 1 percentage point rise compared to last year.
North American airlines saw international demand rise by just 2.1 percent. However, underlying trends in business activity are positive and growth in trade volumes has accelerated, boding well for business-related international travel. Capacity rose 3.8 percent and load factor slipped 1.4 percentage points to 82.4 percent.
Middle East carriers once again recorded the strongest increase in international air travel, with a rise of 15.8 percent in September compared to a year ago.
Airlines here continue to benefit from the strength of regional economies as well as expansion in export orders that support international business activity and business-related premium travel.
Capacity rose 14.9 percent and load factor climbed 0.6 percentage points to 78percent.
Sade Williams
