EURASIA Group, the world’s leading global political risk research and consulting firm has changed its almost two years view on the March 28 presidential election and is now calling it a victory for the opposition All Progressive Congress candidate Muhamadu Buhari.
In an advisory written by its head of Africa, Philippe de Pontep who has recently spent a good time in Nigeria, Eurasia said although it had long held the view that President Goodluck Jonathan was favourite to win re-election, the same element which appeared to be working in favour of the president had been losing in significance and saliency as the campaign draws to a close.
According to Eurasia, “chief among them is the incumbency and financial advantages of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). While this still helps Jonathan, its impact is blunted by the intensity of support for Buhari, lackluster grassroots campaigning by the PDP, and new anti-rigging measures by the electoral commission.
“New permanent voting cards and card readers will sharply reduce the level of rigging seen in 2011, when Jonathan beat Buhari in a landslide. Equally important are the enthusiasm gap between the candidates and widespread desire for change.
“Tepid support for Jonathan, even within his own party, means there is no guarantee that patronage will translate into votes. This is especially the case in the north where influential PDP governors and other leaders are taking the money but barely campaigning for Jonathan because of Buhari’s overwhelming popularity in the region.
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“While we expected the electoral map to favour Jonathan, current trends suggest that the swing regions may side with Buhari, including the Christian-majority and heavily populated southwest around Lagos. That could be the decisive demographic factor in the election.
Jonathan won the southwest and middle belt handily in 2011, but faces an uphill task now. Buhari has reached out to the southwestern Yoruba community and brought them into the upper ranks of his campaign and potential administration, in a political alliance of the country’s two largest ethnic groups (the Hausa and Yoruba). In contrast, Jonathan has struggled to make inroads with either group.”
In addition, the firm said “the spotty polling data which is available is also trending in favour of Buhari. A recent poll by a credible local think tank, the Center for Public Policy Alternatives, showed a heavy 58-32% lead for Buhari in Lagos state, a state in which Jonathan handily defeated Buhari last election.”
It said while a national poll by Afrobarometer in January showed a statistical dead heat at 42% for each candidate, economic conditions with the weakening naira continue to deteriorate, along with the security environment.
According to an IPSOS/Eurasia Group model for predicting elections, incumbents have a hard time winning re-election when their approval ratings are below 40%. Eurasia said, “we don’t have polling data to confirm where Jonathan is now, but given he was at around 50% at the end of last year, our best guess is that he is below 40% now.”
In addition, the report said the All Progressives Congress (APC) has suffered few defections during the campaign, despite plenty of PDP inducements, suggesting a relatively united coalition whose members have confidence in the prospects of victory.
In contrast, the PDP has been weakened by internal power struggles, including the dramatic departure from the party by former President Olusegun Obasanjo.
Another obstacle for the PDP is the downturn in the economy, especially the naira devaluations that have hit pocketbooks hard in the import-dependent country. That has played into the APC’s rallying call for change at an inopportune time for the ruling party.
The Eurasia report said “despite some important military gains against Boko Haram in the northeast and a partial exoneration of its oil revenue management in a recent PWC audit, the PDP is starting to look desperate. Examples include: forcing the election delay, seeking (unofficially) the resignation of respected Independent Nigerian Electoral Commission (INEC) head, Attahiru Jega, questioning Buhari’s health, playing sectarian politics, and casting doubts about the new permanent voter cards.
“This raises the possibility of another election delay, but we think that is relatively unlikely, in part because it would probably backfire politically and would certainly do so internationally.
“While some of his aides and military leaders may feel otherwise, Jonathan himself is unlikely to support such a maneuver.”
While its clients around the world expect a disputed election outcome, Eurasia provided some insights to what it expects of a Buhari presidency.
According to Eurasia, “Buhari is a radically different politician and leader than Jonathan, and his approach to security and corruption will be a sharp departure from the status quo, most likely for the better. When it comes to policies, however, there may be less divergence than meets the eye, especially in the economic realm.
“Many of Jonathan’s priorities, power and agriculture reform, local content regulations, and selective liberalisation of the economy,will also be priorities under a Buhari administration, with differences of emphasis. Buhari may additionally look to liberalise the rail, refinery, and gas pipeline industries, none of which will be easy.
“Even though a Buhari win may be the better outcome for investors over time, we are keeping our short-term trajectory (six months) at negative and long-term political outlook (two years) at neutral. In the near term, the post-election climate will be tense and likely contested regardless of who wins.
“But in contrast to Jonathan, a Buhari administration has a different mix of assets and liabilities. On the plus side, a Buhari administration would be stronger in tackling corruption, more reformist in the oil sector, and less likely to allow politics to swamp the business climate.”
For more, please see full text of the Eurasia report on www.s19080.p615.sites.pressdns.com/en
