At a small office in Ikeja Lagos, Segun Adeoye, a middle-aged civil servant, stared at his stock trading app, this time without concerns.
Like many other retail stock buyers, Adeoye has always been wary of the stock market. He has always believed that inflation would eat his dividends before he even withdraws them.
But merely hearing that the ‘Big Green’ is coming to the board, that is Dangote Fertilizer Limited official listing, Segun has decided to change his calculation on what makes up his stock portfolio in 2026.
For years, the ‘math’ for Nigerian stock buyers has been a frustrating equation of balancing high growth potential, inflation adjusted returns and foreign exchange (FX) risk.
But the planned listing of Dangote Fertilizer Limited on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) is expected to rewrite that formula.
For Adeoye, and others alike, owning the ‘golden stock’ won’t just be an investment which will offer a revolutionary promise in terms of dividends, but also a hedge against the future.
By offering the public the opportunity to own the stock, Dangote Fertilizer Limited will not just be adding another ticker to the NGX board, but will be introducing a massive industrial asset with an annual revenue target of $70 billion.
The sheer scale of the fertilizer business will significantly deepen NGX’s market liquidity, experts say.
Aside from retail investors like Adeoye, there is also good news for institutional investors, particularly Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs), as the listing will provide a rare, investment grade local asset that offers high-yield, hard-currency returns.
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Dangote Fertiliser Limited is the largest Granulated Urea Fertiliser complex in Africa, with an investment of $2.5 billion, the plant has a capacity of three million metric tonnes per annum (MMTPA).
As Dangote Fertiliser Limited sells its fertilizer globally in dollars, it can pay its shareholders in a currency that held its ground.
As Africa moves toward fertilizer self-sufficiency, the plant’s dominance as the world’s soon-to-be largest urea exporter ensures that its shareholders are betting on a winner.
The plant in Ibeju-Lekki has been a silent giant for years, churning out urea that reached as far as Brazil and the United States.
Now, it was opening its doors to the very people it served, thereby eliciting excitement on Custom Street.
Aliko Dangote, president and chief executive, Dangote Group, last year disclosed the plans to soon list Dangote Fertiliser Limited on the Nigerian Exchange.
He said during a visit by capital market stakeholders to the company’s facilities that Dangote Fertiliser Limited listing aims to “revolutionise the capital market” by addressing investor concerns about the naira losing value through a dollar-based business system.
“The main challenge is that many investors are hesitant, thinking, if I invest my naira now, by the time I receive dividends in 10 years, the naira will have lost value,” Dangote explained. “However, we are entering the market with a dollarised business model.”
By introducing a ‘naira-in, dollar-out’ model, the company has no doubt shifted the calculation from simple price appreciation to a sophisticated play on global export revenues. Investors will no longer just buy a stake in a local factory but will be acquiring a claim on a massive foreign exchange (FX) engine.
Interestingly, the Dangote Group’s chief executive outlined extraordinary growth targets for the fertiliser business, projecting daily revenues of $20 million within 40 months.
In a bid to put Africa on the path of self-reliance, Dangote Fertilizer is committed to drawing up ambitious plans to set up world-class projects within the realm of fertiliser production.
These projects are suited to drive Dangote Fertilizer operational effectiveness in creating the most competitive fertiliser products across the continent.
“We expect to reach over $70 billion in revenue and possibly pay dividends of $3–4 billion. Our philosophy is to always think big,” Dangote further told the capital market stakeholders during their visit.
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Dangote Fertilizer priority is to support the farmers by rendering professional services, crop advisory and soil testing services to their respective village/ towns to enhance the crop productivity for agriculture.
The company is actively expanding its fertiliser plants to achieve these ambitious targets, with Dangote expressing confidence that dividend payments to shareholders will exceed $3 billion as operations scale up.
For the NGX, its total market capitalisation, which had hovered at modest levels for years, began climbing over the N100 trillion mark. International fund managers, who had once overlooked Lagos, are now re-allocating capital, and Dangote Fertilizer will be another stock to buy.
Dangote also plans to list its refinery business this year, the group’s founder said. The IPOs are intended to raise cash and open shares to institutional investors.
Dangote Fertiliser produces about three million tons of granulated urea annually and plans to be the largest maker globally by 2028, said Dangote previously. To do this, it needs to expand its $2.5 billion complex in Lagos, and will start building a facility in Ethiopia this year.
Further firming the fertilizer business Initial Public Offer (IPO) plans, Ralph Mupita, chief executive officer, MTN Group Limited, has just been appointed to the board of Dangote Fertilizer Limited as it prepares to expand and list the operation in Nigeria.
This high-profile hire to Aliko Dangote’s stable comes as Dangote Fertiliser plans an initial public offering on the Nigerian Stock Exchange this year.
Mupita spearheaded the listing of MTN’s unit in the West African nation in 2019, a business whose revenue has more than quadrupled since. With a market value of $8.6 billion, it’s the bourse’s biggest company after BUA Foods.
At the Afreximbank Annual Meetings in June 2025, Dangote said the fertilizer plant – already operational and exporting – would be listed first, followed by the $20 billion refinery, which is ramping up production.
