…Prices hover at N1000/kg
Nigeria households are finally catching a break at the stove. According to new data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), a massive surge in imports has flooded local depots, bringing much-needed relief to prices in the cooking gas market.
Retail prices are now moving toward the N1,000-per-kilogram threshold. If this trend holds, it will mark a complete turnaround from the severe energy crisis that hit families just five months ago, when prices were significantly higher, and supply was scarce.
NMDPRA’s January 2026 fact sheet shows total national daily LPG supply climbed to 6,300 metric tonnes per day last month, up from 5,200 MT/day in December and sharply above the 4,000 MT/day recorded at the start of 2025.
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The NMDPRA data signals growing momentum in Nigeria’s downstream energy sector, driven by expanded domestic capacity and a competitive import environment.
The January supply figure represents a 21 percent jump from December alone, and a near-doubling of volumes from the troughs of September 2025, when supply collapsed to just 3,900/day amid a confluence of shocks that drove retail gas prices to crisis levels.
The most striking element of January’s supply data is the role of imports. After contributing virtually nothing in March 2025, and averaging just 0.4 to 0.8 thousand MT/day for most of the year, cooking gas import volumes shot to 2.6 thousand MT/day in January, accounting for more than 41 percent of total national supply and dwarfing the 1.5 thousand MT/day imported in December.
Industry analysts attribute the pricing improvement partly to currency stabilisation, with the naira trading around N1,350 per dollar in mid-February, enabling marketers to moderate price swings and reduce volatility in depot pricing.
The domestic supply side also held firm. Refineries and gas plants contributed 3,700 MT/day in January, consistent with December’s output and reflecting the sustained production gains that have underpinned Nigeria’s growing LPG self-sufficiency.
The supply surge is flowing through to consumer prices with unusual speed. Market checks on February 12, 2026, show that 11Plc quoted N1050.50 per kilogramme in Lagos, while NIPCO announced N1,000/kg. Techno Oil set its rate slightly higher at N1100/kg.
The contrast with late 2025 could scarcely be starker. In October 2025, the average retail cost of refilling a 12.5kg cylinder surged from N16,155 in September to N18,636, a 15.36 percent increase in a single month, as the PENGASSAN strike coincided with maintenance work at Nigeria LNG’s Train 4 facility at Bonny Island, strangling supply.
In Lagos, retail surveys at that time showed prices reaching between N2,500 and N3,000/kg, compared with N1,200 to N1,400/kg only weeks earlier.
That October shock, which forced millions of households to abandon gas stoves for charcoal and firewood, now looks like an inflexion point that galvanised both importers and regulators.
Experts’ voices
The scale of January’s supply rebound has drawn cautious optimism from industry insiders, though most are careful to distinguish between cyclical relief and structural reform.
“What we are seeing in January is a market responding rationally to price signals,” said one Lagos-based downstream energy consultant who has advised downstream importers. “The naira has stabilised enough for importers to price cargoes with some confidence, and the Dangote refinery’s LPG output is creating real competition at the depot level for the first time. That combination is powerful.”
Saidu Mohammed, chief executive officer at NMDPRA, said in late January that sustained competition, rather than subsidies, would ensure adequate supply and promote affordability of petrol, diesel, and LPG nationwide.
His remarks signal that the regulator views the current market dynamic as a model to be protected, not a windfall to be managed away.
Aisha Mohammed, an energy analyst at the Lagos-based Centre for Development Studies, warned that without consistent investment in local production and distribution infrastructure, Nigeria will continue to experience price shocks each time international supply tightens, or the naira weakens.
Mohammed points to Nigeria’s persistent dependence on a handful of supply nodes, chiefly the Bonny Island NLNG terminal and the Dangote refinery’s nascent LPG stream, as a structural fragility that January’s numbers do nothing to resolve.
Consumer advocacy groups have welcomed the price movement but urge restraint in declaring victory.
“The households that switched back to firewood and charcoal during the October crisis are not going to immediately return to LPG at N1,000 per kg,” said Chioma Okafor, a clean energy access researcher at a Lagos policy institute.
“Trust has been broken. People remember paying N2,500 per kg. Until prices are stable at affordable levels for at least two or three months consecutively, the behavioural shift back to gas will be slow.”
Traders at Lagos’s Mile 2 and Ajegunle cylinder markets told Bloomberg that retail foot traffic has visibly improved since mid-January, with 5kg and 12.5kg refills gaining renewed traction among cost-conscious buyers. Several retailers reported trimming their margins voluntarily to rebuild customer bases eroded during the price spike.
Read also: Families still reel under pain of cooking gas’ high cost
What N1,000/kg would mean
For Nigerian households who cook with LPG, a N1,000/kg mark is a meaningful affordability milestone. Average 12.5kg cylinder costs rose from N9,000 in October 2023 to about N16,000 by August 2025, a 78 percent increase in under two years, squeezing low- and middle-income households who in some cases spent up to a tenth of their income on cooking fuel.
A sustained drop to N1,000/kg would translate to roughly N12,500 for a standard 12.5kg refill, a level not seen since early 2024 and one that could accelerate Nigeria’s clean cooking transition by drawing back the millions of consumers who reverted to biomass fuels during the 2025 price shocks.
