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It took Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos’s government almost four years of difficult talks with Marxist rebels to reach a deal to end the country’s five-decade conflict. On Sunday, six days after he signed the deal in front of regional heads of state, Colombians rejected the agreement, handing a humiliating setback to Santos and raising the chance that the country could once again sink back into war with the FARC.
The vote was decided by a razor-thin margin, with 50.2 percent voting against the pact and 49.8 percent in favor. While nearly everyone in this nation of 49 million says they want an end to violence that has left more than 200,000 dead, many balked at the idea of rebel leaders receiving lenient treatment for crimes such as murder and kidnap, and objected to rebels receiving seats in Congress and a monthly payment from the government.
After it became clear that the ‘yes’ vote had fallen short, Santos took steps to limit the damage, pledging to maintain a cease-fire with the guerrillas, as he ordered his negotiating team back to Cuba, and also reached out to leaders of the ‘no’ campaign. The Revolutionary Army Forces of Colombia also said they would continue to respect the cease-fire. But it was clearly a big defeat for a man who had stated before the referendum that there was no “plan B” if this deal wasn’t accepted.
“As President, I retain my powers and my obligation to maintain public order and to seek and negotiate peace,” Santos said. “I will continue seeking peace until the last minute of my presidency.”
The ‘no’ campaign was led by the Democratic Center Party of former President Alvaro Uribe, Santos’ predecessor and former ally. Uribe, who is likely to play a key role in whatever happens next, told reporters that he wants to contribute to a “national pact”, and said he would back a lighter punishment but not impunity for the FARC. Santos and his allies denied that the deal granted the rebels impunity, and said that any deal with an enemy would necessarily be imperfect but that the concessions were worth paying to end decades of violence.
Voters in Bogota backed the deal, while the western coffee-producing region and Uribe’s home province of Antioquia rejected it.
On Sunday, FARC leader Rodrigo Londono, who is better known by his alias “Timochenko”, still held out hopes for peace.
“The FARC maintain their desire for peace and reiterate their willingness to use only words as a weapon of construction into the future. For the Colombian people who dream of peace, count on us. Peace will triumph,” he said in remarks to reporters.
Market Volatility
The referendum results could unsettle financial markets, weighing on government bonds and the peso once they resume trading on Monday. The peso has strengthened 10 percent this year, the best performer among major Latin American currencies after the Brazilian real.
“We’ll likely see a lot of volatility in the coming days. Bonds and the peso will probably fall,” Munir Jalil, head analyst at Citigroup Inc.’s Colombia unit, said by phone from Bogota.
The result may make it harder for the government to pass its tax reform bill this year, he said, which it needs to do to plug a hole in its finances caused by the oil price drop.
At least three polls published last week showed that voters would back the deal by 60 percent or more. Bad weather caused by Hurricane Matthew may have contributed to low turnout in the Caribbean coast, an area whose residents heavily backed the deal by a wide margin. Turnout was 37 percent nationwide, and as low as 19 percent in the coastal province of La Guajira.
The agreement would have granted the largest guerrilla army in the Americas seats in Congress, agricultural reform and reduced sentences for crimes in return for handing in their weapons.
Drop in Violence
Levels of violence dropped during the talks, as the FARC declared a series of unilateral cease-fires and the air force stopped bombing guerrilla camps. Acts of terrorism fell to 167 in the first eight months of the year, according to the Defense Ministry, down 77 percent from the same period in 2012, the year the talks started.
During half a century of violence, the guerrillas fought for a Cuban-style revolution, ambushing army patrols, blowing up oil pipelines and charging businesses protection money.
Without the FARC scaring away investors and without the war diverting government spending from more productive uses, Colombia’s economy could grow 1 percentage point per year faster, according to the Finance Ministry.
