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Disregarding series of criticisms and warnings by some prominent Nigerians that he should shelve his second term presidential ambition and honourably return to his native Daura in Katsina State at the expiration of his tenure on May 29, 2019, President Muhammadu Buhari on Monday told the National Executive Committee (NEC) of his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), that he intends to seek re-election in 2019.
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo, former military President Ibrahim Babangida, Emeritus Catholic Archbishop of Lagos Anthony Cardinal Okogie, Nobel Laureate Wole Soyinka, Archbishop Emmanuel Chukwuma of Enugu Anglican Diocese, and a host of other prominent Nigerians, while acknowledging Buhari’s constitutional right to go for a second term, had on separate occasions specifically asked the president to perish the idea of seeking re-election in 2019 in order to save the country from destruction.
But making his intention to seek re-election known to his party NEC on Monday, Buhari said, “People have been asking me to declare for re-election and some have been asking me when I am going to declare. I want to give the NEC the honour to be the first to hear it. I have decided to contest the 2019 elections.”
While the president’s declaration has put an end to months of speculation regarding his political future, pundits are already forecasting what this means for the polity and the opposition.
Although political campaigns are due to begin from November 18 for the February 16, 2019 presidential election, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) timetable, observers say the race for the presidency may have commenced in earnest with Buhari’s declaration, pushing governance to the backseat.
Political commentators contend that Buhari’s emergence as standard bearer of the ruling party in the 2019 election is fait accompli. They argue that the announcement of his intention to run may have put paid to the ambitions of other prospective presidential aspirants in the APC, including Senate President Bukola Saraki, Aminu Tambuwal, Sokoto State governor and former Speaker of the House of Representatives, as well as Rabiu Kwankwaso, a former governor of Kano State and senator representing Kano Central.
The commentators hinge this viewpoint on the belief that what matters to political parties is winning elections and as such, they always try to put their best foot forward. They believe that in spite of the failures of the present administration and the general discontent in the country, when it comes to chances of winning elections, Buhari for now remains APC’s surest bet. To them, therefore, the 2019 presidential battle is Buhari versus the opposition.
In the meantime, some key figures in the ruling APC are basking in the euphoria of Buhari’s declaration for second term, saying it signifies the final nail in the coffin of the opposition in the country.
Rochas Okorocha, Imo State governor and chairman of the Progressive Governors’ Forum, believes the president’s declaration would “reduce the noise of the opposition and take care of the idiosyncrasies of certain elements in the system”.
Okorocha claimed that Buhari has done well to deserve a second tenure, expressing optimism that the president would garner more votes in 2019 than he did in 2015 because, according to him, most Nigerians, including people of the South-East, had seen that Buhari meant well for the nation and the citizenry. “The antenna of the opposition in the country will finally be lowered when the campaigns begin and the party will be showing Nigerians its achievements in the states under its control and at the federal level,” the governor said in a statement signed by Sam Onwuemeodo, his chief press secretary.
Calling Buhari’s bluff
But top shots in the major opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) as well as other political parties claim they had always expected that Buhari would declare for a second term.
For instance, Ahmed Makarfi, immediate past chairman of PDP National Caretaker Committee, said Buhari’s declaration of interest to contest in the 2019 presidential election was no news to Nigerians. As far as the PDP was concerned, he said, expectations had always been that Buhari would run.
“For me, it should be news only if the announcement had been that he will not seek re-election. For the PDP, our expectations have always been that he will run; so, nothing changes in our resolve to do the needful. What the country needs is mature, issues-based clean contest,” Makarfi said.
Kola Ologbondiyan, PDP national publicity secretary, while answering questions on Channels TV’s Sunrise Daily on Wednesday, claimed that the mammoth crowd that attended the PDP rallies in Jigawa and Katsina States must have pushed the president to make a sudden, desperate declaration to run for a second term.
“In our political history, particularly in the modern political history since 1999 till date, President Muhammadu Buhari is the first incumbent president that will declare a second-term interest one clear year ahead of the election,” he said.
He, however, said the PDP was not bothered whether or not Buhari emerges as the APC candidate at the primaries, saying the opposition party was ever ready to reclaim power from the APC.
Chekwas Okorie, national chairman, United Progressives Party (UPP) and the party’s presidential candidate in the 2015 elections, believes that given the socio-economic condition of Nigerians, beating Buhari in 2019 would be a walkover.
For Yunusa Tanko, national chairman, National Conscience Party (NCP), Buhari’s early expression of interest to seek re-election next year would not stop the NCP from trouncing him in 2019 as, according to him, “We are fully prepared to run against him.”
What opposition should do
Political analysts, however, say rather call Buhari’s bluff without putting any concrete measures on ground to confront the sitting president, the opposition parties should focus on putting their houses in order so as to be able to present a formidable force that can not only take on but also overcome the Buhari challenge in 2019.
If he eventually gets his party’s ticket, Buhari, who would officially be 76 next year, is expected to slug it out with candidates of the main opposition PDP and 60 other political parties.
The president’s declaration, coming as suddenly as it did, the analysts say, should put enormous pressures on the opposition parties to quickly go back to the drawing board and come up with winning strategies. They foresee difficult times ahead for the PDP and other parties in the opposition unless they expedite action on forming political understanding, alliances or even mergers ahead of 2019.
They say the opposition can also exploit the discontent in the land caused by insecurity (especially the menace of armed herdsmen), the half-hearted anti-corruption fight, the poor state of the economy and massive infrastructure deficit by telling Nigerians how they would do better.
There are also those who believe that Buhari’s early declaration of interest may be a blessing in disguise for the opposition as having early knowledge of the APC’s flag-bearer puts the parties in a good stead to know what they are up against and so choose their candidates wisely.
To many analysts, Buhari’s defeat at the poll will depend on two major factors: presenting a credible alternative candidate and making the electoral process free, fair and credible.
Lesson notes for PDP
Political analysts have prescribed three strategies for the PDP to regain the confidence of Nigerians ahead of the election. They include shunning imposition and impunity, picking a credible presidential candidate and forming an alliance with other political parties to defeat the incumbent president.
Currently, presidential aspirants in the PDP include former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Gombe State Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo, former Jigawa State Governor Sule Lamido, his Kano, Sokoto and Kaduna counterparts Ibrahim Shekarau, Attahiru Bafarawa and Ahmed Makarfi, respectively, as well as Ekiti State Governor Ayo Fayose, who has insisted on contesting despite that the party has zoned the slot to the North. Among the pack, Taiye Odewale, a political analyst, believes that only Atiku can give Buhari a run for his money in the next presidential election because, unlike other contestants, the former vice president already has massive political structure across the country.
Odewale also dismissed Obasanjo’s assertion that Nigerians should reject the two main political parties, insisting that as it stands, only APC and PDP have the structures to dominate the Nigerian political space.
“Based on what is on ground, there is no other party. The two main parties that we have now are the ruling APC and the main opposition PDP. And now that Buhari as a sitting president has declared his intention to run for second term, that means that the possibility of any other person emerging as candidate of the party is zero because just like what Jonathan and Obasanjo did when PDP was in power, Buhari will get the ticket of his party,” Odewale said in an interview with BDSUNDAY.
“Only PDP will give Buhari the required contest. And that is the reason why the party needs to sit down properly and calculate on what type of person they can push forward to give Buhari a run for his incumbency factor.
“Of all the people that have signified their intention in PDP, it is only Atiku Abubakar I see as a formidable challenger because he had served as vice president for eight years at the beginning of this democracy. He is a well-known political figure across the length and breadth of this country. And he is from the other zone of the core North, the North-East. Buhari is from the North-West. So, if you pick somebody like Atiku from North-East, it will weaken Buhari’s strength in that area and also tackle him in the North-Central axis while South is all for Atiku’s taking. If they [PDP] pick any other candidate, it means they will give Buhari an easy ride,” he said.
Odewale also disagreed with former President Goodluck Jonathan and ex-military President Babangida, who advocated for younger presidential candidate for the main opposition party.
To him, at age 71, Atiku remains vibrant and agile in addition to having political structures across the country, stressing that despite being much younger, 56-year-old Dankwambo is unpopular outside Gombe State.
“If they say PDP should field a young candidate, that should have been good if you view the age factor. But the young candidate I see PDP bringing is Dankwambo, the sitting governor of Gombe, not even Tambuwal because he is from the same North-West zone with Buhari. The North-West will not drop Buhari for any other person from that zone.
“So, Dankwambo is from the same zone with Atiku. But Dankwambo outside Gombe is not known elsewhere. It will create a problem of marketing a product. Atiku is already known. Yes, he is of age but he is vibrant. He is not like a Buhari that is old and incapacitated health-wise. To me, Atiku is the best bet for the party,” he said.
But some analysts have raised some important questions that may decide PDP’s fate in 2019. They are asking whether Nigerians will accept PDP’s apologies and give it a second chance; how the party will convince Nigerians that the mistakes of 1999-2015 would not be repeated; whether it would even survive the politics of presidential nomination; whether Nigerians would prefer APC with its endless excuses, and whether the citizens are ready to try a ‘Third Force’ to rescue the country from the present political and socio-economic crises.
Whither SDP?
Before now, the news of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) repositioning itself had raised hopes that Nigerians may at last have a choice from the two dominant political parties in the country, the ruling APC and the major opposition PDP.
In an open letter to President Buhari in January, former President Obasanjo had also mooted the idea of forming a movement, a ‘Third Force’, in the political circle “that will drive Nigeria up and forward” and lead Nigerians out of the present excruciating situation.
The repositioning of SDP – particularly the movement into the party by Jerry Gana, a former Minister of Information and National Orientation, Tunde Adeniran, a former Minister of Education and one-time Nigerian Ambassador to Germany, and Godsday Orubebe, a former Minister of Niger Delta Affairs – had seen the polity brimming with hope that here, at last, is the “nubile beauty” to be courted by all and sundry ahead of the 2019 general elections.
There were also expectations that apart from the People’s Redemption Party (PRP) and People’s Salvation Party (PSP) which teamed up with the SDP to form a formidable platform, more people would join the SDP from other political parties and platforms, with insinuations that the Coalition for Nigeria Movement (CNM), inspired by former President Obasanjo, was in talks with the party.
As it is, it appears the SDP has run out of steam as no new thing seems to be happening in the party, leaving Nigerians to wonder what has gone wrong.
Nigerians are also worried that 10 months to the elections, they are yet to see any formidable candidate who can defeat incumbent President Buhari despite what appears to be a consensus that Buhari must be voted out in 2019. Many are asking of the whereabouts of groups like the Nigerian Intervention Movement (NIM) and the Coalition for Nigeria Movement (CNM) being tipped as the ‘Third Force’ now that Buhari has declared.
