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President Muhammadu Buhari on Monday finally shrugged off relentless criticisms and pressure from three of his retired colleagues to dismount the horse and allow young Nigerians take over, to declare his intention to run for office again in the 2019 presidential elections.
“People have been asking me to declare for re-election and some have been asking me when I am going to declare. I want to give the NEC the honour to be the first to hear it. I have decided to contest the 2019 elections,” Buhari told a closed door meeting of his party’s National Executive Council (NEC) at the party’s secretariat in Abuja.
In the last few months and although he had said he had not made up his mind on whether to contest or not, there has been a new spring in the steps of the 75 year old former general and his famed body language suggests one who was already investing in his re-election project.
The official declaration erases any doubts that he may succumb to the criticisms and pressures from the trio of Obasanjo, Babangida and indirectly, Danjuma to perish the thought of running for a second term in office following what they perceived as the failure of his administration to revamp the economy, improve the living conditions of the people and also stop the genocide and killings by Fulani pastoralists across Nigeria’s north-central states of Benue, Taraba, Plateau and Kogi states.
What is driving PMB to run again?
Despite the heavy criticisms that has trailed the president and his administration’s handling of the economy, jobs and security of late, the president has enjoyed tremendous support from his party and state governors under his party, who are desperate to ride on the back of his popularity and cult-like followership especially in the northern part of the country, to get re-elected for a second term.
Of late, some of these governors, especially those of Kogi, Kano, Plateau, Niger, Yobe, Kaduna, and Adamawa states have been making comments to suggest they will compel the president to run for a second term whether he wants to or not.
On one of their visits to the president, the governors were reported to have said
“We are politicians and those of us that you see here want the President to contest for a second term of office. So, everything is about 2019; there is no hiding that. We have no apologies for that.
“We believe in the President, we want him to keep running the country in the right direction. So, people can speculate about 2019; we have no apologies,” governor el Rufai spoke on behalf of the governors.
Besides, as former president Obasanjo seems to suggest in his open later of January 2018, many of the president’s ‘nepotic’ court who have gained tremendous power and influence due to the president’s passive and deliberative style of governance, have walled him off from majority of Nigerians and are reinforcing the message of the governors that he is the only one suited to run the country.
What is more, some analysts have pointed out that the attempt by Obasanjo, Babangida and Danjuma to force Buhari to stand down may have helped the president make up his mind to contest the elections. “What I do know is that if you want a Fulani man to do something for sure, tell him not to. So the…former army generals should probably think of another way,” says Rafiq Raji, Chief Economist at Macroafricaintel Investment LLC, an Africa-focused macro research & investment consultancy based in Lagos.
Jets off to the UK
Just immediately after announcing his decision to run again, President Buhari left for the United Kingdom (UK) ostensibly to attend a meeting of Commonwealth Heads of States and Government, coming up from 18 to 20th of April, 2018.
However, his office did not give a date of his return fuelling speculation that he may just be using the Commonwealth leaders meeting as excuse to go on his customary health vacation to treat his mysterious illness.
At the NEC meeting which he attended ahead of his departure for a one-week official visit in UK, the President also proposed suspension of provision of Article 30 Section 1 and Subsection 3 of All Progressive Congress (APC) constitution which requires any serving officer desirous of seeking re-election to resign from office 30 days
before the election.
The President said the waivers had become necessary because it is practically impossible for the present serving officers to meet this condition.
The President said he believed that the current executives should be free to run for elective position in the party if they so wish.
“Considering the provision of Article 30 Section 1 and Subsection 3 of our party constitution which requires any serving officer desirous seeking re-election to resign from office 30 days before the election, I’m not sure of the practicality of the present serving officers’ ability to meet this condition”
”Accordingly, the party may consider granting waivers to party executives at all levels so that they are not disenfranchised in participating in the elections provided this does not violate our
rights or our rules.”
“Necessary waivers should also be extended to executives at the ward level whose tenures may have elapsed and indeed to anyone knocking on
our doors from other parties,” he stated.
Buhari said his intention to seek re-election in 2019, was in response to demands by Nigerians.
A statement by Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media and Publicity, Garba Shehu, confirming the development said Buhari made
the declaration at a closed-door meeting of the Council.
”The President said he was responding to the clamour by Nigerians to re-contest in 2019, adding that he wanted to give NEC the honour of
notifying them first,” Shehu said.
Declaration portends danger to Nigeria – Junaid Muhammad
Meanwhile, Buhari’s intention to seek re-election for the 2019 presidential election has elicited mixed reaction from politicians, political parties and public affairs analysts.
Reacting to the President’s declaration, Second Republic lawmaker, Junaid Muhammad told BusinessDay on Monday that Nigerians have nothing to cheer with the president’s re-election bid adding that it probably portends danger to the country.
“I don’t know if Nigerians have a say in it. If Nigerians have a say in it there would have been no such declaration. Nigerians are going to be bystanders in the sense that in spite of all the urges not to run, Buhari will probably rig the election and unleash mayhem and catastrophe the like of which Nigerians have never seen,” Muhammad said.
“The government has the capacity to rig the election and they are shameless enough to do that. I find myself unable to justify under any circumstances the reasons for the President to want to run for a second term because he has failed in everything he said he was going to do. He has said several times that he will not go beyond one term, now he has set that aside and has decided to go for power no matter the consequences for the country. That is not my idea of a statesman; Buhari has pathological lust for power.
“I don’t believe that Nigeria will see peace and of course Nigeria has never seen good governance under Buhari and the same pattern will continue unfortunately. Buhari said he was going to bring security and control the Boko Haram he has failed in that. He said he was going to fight corruption he has failed in that. He said he was going to bring
the militants of the Niger Delta under control he has failed in doing that. He promised to better the economy he has failed woefully on that. The best thing is for him to leave so that Nigerians can have
their county back,” he said.
Also contributing, the National Chairman of the National Unity Party (NUP), Perry Opara, in his reaction told BusinessDay that President Buhari’s bid to seek re-election is good for democracy, good for Nigerians and also good for APC.
“With this declaration, political activities will commence immediately. As a leader of a coalition of political parties, we have now gotten emboldened and we will re-strategize. I will go ahead and call a meeting immediately with all the national chairman of political parties in our coalition so that we can assess and reassess President Buhari’s declaration and proffer solution on how to move ahead for 2019. It is good that the declaration happened on Monday and I can
assure you that between now and Friday, a lot of alignment and realignments will commence.
“Nigerians are the people to decide whether the type of government they have seen for over three years is what they want to continue with or they need a change,” he said.
Obasanjo to respond
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo will react to President Muhammadu Buhari’s declaration to contest for the 2019 Presidential election, a
close confidant of the former president confirmed.
Opara told BusinessDay that Obasanjo, who is implacably opposed to the government of President Buhari, is not in the country now but will
surely issue a statement when he returns to the country soon.
Opara said that Obasanjo is catalyst for the mass movements that have swept across the federation in the form of Coalition for Nigeria Movement (CNM), the Nigeria Intervention Movement (NIM) which is in grand coalition with about 35 political parties, civil society organisations, faith- based organisations among others, allegedly aimed at removing the Buhari government and forming a Government of National Unity.
“We are going to commence meeting with Obasanjo to reinforce our strategy for 2019. Obasanjo is not in the country now but as soon as
he comes back he will issue a statement that Nigerians will follow and take it from there,” he said.
Obasanjo has inspired the Coalition for Nigeria Movement (CNM), which he launched to allegedly unseat President Buhari and the ruling All
Progressives Congress (APC). Obasanjo is also mobilizing Nigerians against the return of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party
(PDP) to power. The former president has said that the two main parties have led Nigerians astray and don’t deserve to be given any further chance.
Recall that Obasanjo issued a letter to President Buhari in January in which he severely criticized the president for failing to better the Nigerian economy and failing to provide security to the people following the incessant attacks by armed Fulani herdsmen.
Obasanjo has since received the support of former generals who also denounced Buhari over his shortcomings.
Declaration anchored on failure -NCP chair
Meanwhile the National Chairman of the National Conscience Party (NCP), Tanko Yunusa, said Buhari’s declaration gives the people little to hope for following the pervasive hardship in the country.
The NCP chair told BusinessDay on Monday that the declaration is not news. “For us we already have in mind that he was going to run. He has
the right to run and he is welcome to the game. We will put up our own team to run against him.
“But it is clear that the president and the government itself have not lived up to expectations of Nigerians and the cry has been huge. Look
at the issue of corruption, people have seen that it has been selective and the issue of economy which has been woeful,” he said.
Leader of the Northern Elders Forum (NEF) Tanko Yakasai described the declaration as “no news” adding that “Nigerians had abandoned the All
Progressive Congress (APC) long ago”
The elder statesman who stated that the declaration did not take him by surprise, attributed his reaction to how the President’s supporters ” had been behaving”
“His supporters did not seem to know that Nigerians have changed their
mind about the APC”
“My advice to Nigerians is that they should be more conscious about
their future and the future of their children.”
Former Minister of Special Duties, Tanimu Yakubu, while also reacting, expressed happiness that the President is contesting the election.
Yakubu, a chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in a telephone chat with BusinessDay in Abuja, said the party will be happy
to square it up again with President Buhari.
“We are happy because, it is going to be a rematch with President Buhari. It is the President that we want to defeat” adding that “we are happy that the APC is most likely to represent him for the 2019
Presidential election”
Yakubu said ”Nigerians are fully aware of the misrule, fragmentation and neglects” the All Progressive Congress had visited on Nigeria
since the inception of the current administration.
“We are not afraid of the APC and the President because they have created more division and insecurity among Nigerians than they
inherited.”
He added that the PDP is however working to conduct the most transparent, free and fair primaries that will produce their own
candidate.
“You know the PDP is the biggest party in Nigeria, we are working to produce our candidate through free, fair and transparent primaries,”
he said.
Pally Iriase, member of National Executive Council (NEC) of APC commended the Buhari’s decision to seek second term in office as Nigeria’s President.
Iriase who doubles as Deputy Majority Whip in the House of Representatives, in a chat with BusinessDay, described Buhari as a
focussed leader in the areas of anti-corruption crusade and infrastructural development.
”One thing that is very clear about this President is that no matter what anybody will have against him, he is much focused and very passionate about repositioning Nigeria and his single fight against
corruption is what Nigerians must commend.
“Secondly within the limited resources available, he has been able to show that Nigeria can develop and work because not many are aware about the huge infrastructural development that is ongoing all over the country, roads are receiving attention, the rail system is receiving attention, the airports are receiving, and even the power problem is receiving consistent attention.
”This shows the serious mindedness of a President that want to turn things around for the betterment of Nigeria, he came in at a time when things have gotten so bad and he has since jettisoned the easy escape route of blame game and he has settled down to work.”
Rekindles hope?
Speaking shortly after the NEC meeting held in Abuja, Governor Abubakar Sani Bello of Niger State stressed that the decision by President Buhari to seek for re-election in 2019 has rekindled hope and reassured Nigerians that the restoration agenda, the war against
corruption and enthronement of good governance for the country will sail safely to coast.
The governor commended this decision shortly after President Buhari told the APC NEC of his intention to contest the presidential election
next year in a statement signed by his Coordinator, Media and Publicity, Jide Orintunsin.
The Governor noted that the President pronouncement has rekindled the
hope of average Nigerians for a better tomorrow.
”It was so heart-warming when the President today told members of the national executive committee (NEC) of our great party of his intention to seek for re-election. This is the brightest moment for our country.
A moment that has rekindled the hope of our people, a moment that has reaffirmed that all the good works, the good initiatives of the
President that saw us out of economic recession the country was plunged into by mismanagement of past administration will now be sustained to take us to the desired enviable position among the
comity of nations.
”By this pronouncement, President Muhammadu Buhari has exhibited high sense of a good leadership. He has shown that he listens to the
yearnings of millions of Nigerians who called on him to continue the good work he started since 2015.
”He would have dashed the hope of teeming Nigerians, especially the younger ones who are looking up to him, if he has turned down this
call to serve.
”The onus is now on all good and well-meaning Nigerians to rally round our President and ensure that the reactionary forces of the opposition
and agents of doom are not allowed to dash the much cherish hope we
all have in the new emerging Nigeria by doing the needful during the next general election.
”We cannot afford to go back to the dark days of extravagance and impunity. President Muhammadu Buhari has changed the game, he has brought sanity to governance, the war against insurgency is nearing logical conclusion and our economy is improving. Posterity will not
forgive us as a people if we allow this golden opportunity to slip off our hands, the President has declared, we have to do the needful as a
people by supporting him,” Governor Sani Bello advised.
What it means for markets
Despite exiting Nigeria from its worst recession in decades and gradual stabilization of the naira, the decision by 75 years old former dictatorship ruler and current President Muhammad Buhari to run for second term still may not restore confidence in Nigeria’s economy as Africa largest economy continues to struggle to find its path to greatness.
F our analysts surveyed by BusinessDay were not surprised by the president’s decision to contest for a second term however they differ on expectations for the market.
“Everything pointed to the fact that he wanted it so there is nothing new; however his decision doesn’t affect the stock market and FX market in any form,” Bismarck Rewane, CEO of economics consulting firm Financial Derivatives Limited said.
“What the market will be looking out for is what the other opponents are bringing to the table,” Rewane added.
Ayodeji Ebo, managing director and CEO of Afrinvest Securities Limited was also not surprised however and said certainty is very pivotal in an investment decision, so the President’s decision to run will provide some form of confidence to investors giving the assurance there will be continuity of policies if he emerges the winner.
“It is positive news for manufacturers and the real sector market in terms of FX stability and
Increasing d the domestic production of goods and services,” Ebo said.
“Generally, for the economy its positive news although a lot still has to be done in terms of infrastructure funding and FX stability.”
Dolapo Ashiru, CEO at Lagos-based Mega capital financial services said the market has been expecting that President Buhari will come out and contest so the announcement was really not an issue.
“In-fact the major reaction that we would have seen in the market is if the opposite had happens, because the market already expects a re-run from him as no Nigerian president has ever declared not to run for the second time,” Ashiru said by Phone.
After becoming the first opposition candidate to win power in Nigeria at the ballot box, the Buhari led-government has been faced by several market uncertainties such as Boko Haram Islamist insurgency and inconsistent international crude oil price from which Nigeria generates a bulk of its revenue from.
“Governance is likely going to be a casualty, though; the longsuffering 2018 budget and a recent $1 billion approval for the military, could become pawns in the political games to follow,” Rafiq Raji, Chief Economist at Macroafricaintel told BusinessDay.
The Nigerian economy has been hammered by a lengthy collapse in oil prices that began in mid-2014, and snowballed into a two-decade low of $28 per barrel in January 2016.
The pain inflicted by militant attacks in the Niger-delta, which sent production levels to near decade-lows of 1.2 million barrels a day, dealt an even steeper blow on the oil-dependent economy.
These factors, alongside the 75 -year old Nigerian president attitude on holding the naira rate unchanged despite reduced dollar inflows y, tipped the economy into recession and triggered acute dollar shortages that stifled the non-oil sector, as the latter contracted 0.2 percent to record is worst performance since 1984.
However, the economy managed to limp off the recession in the second quarter of 2017 after expanding 0.55 percent, on the back of a rebound in oil prices, following an agreement reached by OPEC members in 2016 to shave some 1.2 mbpd off the market to nip a growing supply glut in the bud and relaxed hostilities in the Niger-Delta.
Foreign exchange liquidity has improved following not only increased CBN firepower, but the creation of the investors & exporters window in April 2017 to boost liquidity and ensure timely execution and settlement for eligible transactions as stipulated by the CBN.
This rebound in economic activities, was not due to favourable economic policy by the government, but was largely as a result of a rebound in crude oil prices and the calmness that has been witnessed by the aggrieved Niger delta militant group.
A barrel of Brent oil sold for $66.7 as of Monday, April 9, according to data obtained from the Bloomberg terminal.
That’s a 20.8 percent increase compared to the same period last year ($55.2) and a 54.8 percent leap from an average of $43.10 per barrel in January 2016.
Oil production hit 1.8 million barrels daily in February 2018, representing a 50 percent increase from the 1.2 million barrels produced in the thick of militant attacks, according to the most recent OPEC data.
Tony Ailemen, Kehinde Akintola & Innocent Odoh, Abuja
CHRIS AKOR, Michael Ani & Dipo Oladehinde, Lagos
