Nigeria’s listed banks are moderating record gains on the Lagos bourse as investors reprice the stocks lower in response to the disappointing earnings reports of most lenders.
This is as the value of equities transactions on the NGX reached N8.538 trillion in nine months to September 2025, rising by 115 percent from N3.968 trillion obtained in the corresponding period of 2024.
From a high of +51.22 percent as at trading week ended Friday, October 24, the stock market has moderated its rally as evidenced in NGX ASI year-to-date (YtD) return at +50.94 percent on October 28.
The NGX Banking Index, which tracks the most capitalised and liquid banking stocks, decreased the most by -2.63 percent week-to-date (WtD). Also, while other key sectoral indices have yielded positive returns month-to-date (MtD), the NGX banking index is in negative of 3.67 percent, according to October 28 trading data, which shows it was further driven by Tuesday’s sell-off in counters such as Wema Bank, Zenith Bank, Access Holdings, UBA and GTCO.
“With several companies already releasing their nine months (9M) financial results, market sentiment is expected to remain largely earnings-driven in the near term. We anticipate selective buying in stocks that post strong earnings and dividend guidance,” Coronation research analysts said in their October 27 note.
According to CardinalStone research analysts, “Following the weaker than expected H1’25 financial report from Access Bank, we will further reduce our exposure on the counter.”
In their October 27 Model Equity Portfolio (MEP), the analysts noted, “In anticipation of potentially strong 9M’25 numbers from companies under our coverage, we expect sustained bullish sentiments in the market. We will continue to monitor portfolio positions closely and stay opportunistic where compelling entry points emerge.”
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Access Holdings, GTCO results fail to impress
In its recently released results for the nine months ended September 30, Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc (GTCO) reported profit before tax (PBT) declined by 26 percent to N900.8 billion, down from N1.22 trillion in 9M’2024. Also, the group’s after-tax profit declined by 36 percent to N699.6 billion from N1.09 trillion in 9M’24.
After a while, Access Holdings Plc released its half-year (H1) audited financial results for the period ended June 30, 2025. The results show Access Holdings profit before tax (PBT) of N320.574 billion in H1 2025 as against N348.922 billion in H1 2024, representing a decrease by 8.1 percent.
Also, its profit after tax (PAT) stood at N215.916 billion as against N281.327 billion in H1 2024, marking a 23.3 percent decrease.
Meanwhile, the Group’s gross earnings increased by 13.8 percent year-on-year to N2.5 trillion in H1 2025 from N2.2 trillion in H1 2024, driven by strong growth in interest income which increased by 38.9 percent year-on-year to N2 trillion from N1.5 billion in H1 2024. Year-to-date (YtD), Access Holdings stock has decreased by 3.14 percent.
Mixed sentiment trails stocks
Futureview research analysts expect a stronger performance in equities this week, “fuelled by sustained interest in undervalued stocks, upbeat expectations for third-quarter (Q3) earnings, and improving market liquidity.”
According to them, “Broader sentiment should remain positive as investors position ahead of year-end portfolio rebalancing.”
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Also, in their recent views, Lagos-based United Capital research analysts expected equities market to maintain its earlier positive momentum, “buoyed by potential Q3 earnings releases that could continue to lift investor sentiment.”
In their October 28 post-trading commentary, Lagos-based Vetiva research analysts said: “We expect the risk-off sentiment to persist. Investors will likely await further earnings releases for guidance on company performance, while simultaneously booking gains in counters that have rallied recently in October.”
Strong nine-month transactions on NGX
According to September report on domestic and foreign portfolio participation in equities trading, out of the total N8.538 trillion worth of deals in the first nine months of the year, foreigner portfolio investors traded equities valued at N1.840 trillion or 21.56 percent, while domestic investors’ equities’ transactions stood at N6.697trillion or 78.44 percent. Foreign inflows into Nigeria stocks were N1.030 trillion in nine months while foreign outflows in the same period stood at N810.39 billion. Domestic retail investors traded stocks worth N2.611 trillion while their institutional counterparts accounted for N4.086 trillion worth of equities transactions in the nine months under review.
Speaking on the growth in value of market transactions in nine months, Temi Popoola, CEO, NGX Group, told BusinessDay that “the strong growth in market activity reflects the increasing depth, resilience, and dynamism of the Nigerian capital market.”
He said the momentum is driven by ongoing economic reforms, innovation across market infrastructure, and the confidence of both domestic and foreign investors.
“Over the past two years, the alignment between government policy direction and capital market advancement has created a more efficient, transparent, and investable environment, enhancing liquidity, broadening participation, and reinforcing the Exchange’s role as a catalyst for capital formation and economic growth,” he noted.
“At NGX Group, we remain committed to deepening this progress by leveraging technology, partnerships, and sustainable finance to drive more listings, attract diverse investors, and position the Nigerian market as a beacon of opportunity across Africa and beyond,” Popoola added.
