The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reported two days ago (Monday, 2nd March, 2015) that state governors, gubernatorial candidates and chieftains of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) were meeting to strategise on the 2015 general elections. It is presumable that similar meetings have been held or are being contemplated by the dominant opposition party, the All Progressives Congress (APC). For our purpose, some of the men and women who play key roles at such meetings as well as the strategists and speech writers qualify to be considered as handlers of presidential candidates.
Previous activities of handlers of presidential candidates produced party manifestoes described as unrealistic by notable analysts. However, as General Yakubu Gowon (rtd), former military head of state, once quipped, if there are bad leaders, there are also bad advisers. The fact that your previous strategy sessions produced unrealistic manifestoes that have failed to ignite confidences in the electorate means that you are candidates for the bad advisers that the former military ruler talked about.
Consider the manifestoes of both PDP and APC. BusinessDay reported on 4th February, 2015 that promises, proposals and projects in APC’s 2015 election manifesto “could amount to an estimated N53 trillion spending plan in the first term of office”, if the party’s flag bearer is voted into office on March 28. Divide this amount by four and you get an average annual expenditure of N13.25 trillion compared to the N4.46 trillion “Transition Budget 2015” outlined by the PDP-led federal government. Already, the senate has slashed this figure to less than N4.0trillion.
Similarly, BusinessDay reported on 17th February that the PDP’s manifesto for the 2015 general elections “would require financing a N4.3 trillion deficit”, which is almost six times the N755 billion deficit currently in Nigeria’s 2015 budget proposal before the National Assembly.
Both your parties plan to rely on deficit spending to fund some of the promised programmes and projects. This policy stance ignores the point forcefully made by Nobel prize-winner James Buchanan and Richard Wagner in their book, ‘Democracy in Deficit: The Economic Consequences of Mr. Keynes’. The authors accuse Lord Maynard Keynes, the once-celebrated British economist, of strengthening the hands of politicians in a democracy to get parents accept the milking of grandchildren through the instrumentality of deficit spending.
It is certain, therefore, that the hard work required to tell Nigerians where the money that will fund the many promises will come from has not been done. Will the money come from taxes? Will it come from increased non-oil exports? Will it come from bonds issuance? Nigerian voters deserve to know because yields on 10-year FGN bonds due 2022 were already trading at 13.14 percent two years ago. Today, the yield on this bond is already 16.09 percent. “Such elevated bond yields threaten to keep borrowing costs high for the government, while discouraging Nigerian firms from accessing funds through the domestic corporate bond market,” experts have long pointed out.
As you take advantage of the extra time provided by the election umpire, kindly remember that Nigerians and their friends around the world are complaining loudly that both the presidential and gubernatorial campaigns have so far lacked a sharp focus on the economy. There is a growing clamour for proper articulation of the economic challenges we face and what the victorious candidate will do differently to assure citizens of shared prosperity.
It is appropriate to remind you of the big picture so that you can factor it into what you tell your principals. The challenges have been with us for decades waiting for the leader to resolve. Consider this declaration: “The threat of falling real income in Nigeria today is real and the overall picture of economic insecurity which portends food insecurity, health insecurity, community insecurity and, not the least, political insecurity, is ominous indeed.” Surely, these words ring true today but they were spoken 20 years ago by Oba Oladele Olashore of blessed memory! The event was an anniversary luncheon of the Apapa Committee of Gentlemen. The exact date was 4th December, 1994, as indicated in his autobiography, ‘Joy of Service’.
We beseech you to help your principals to device strategies that will remove the many threats we have become used to. May the good Lord be your guide and inspiration.
We beseech you to help your principals to device strategies that will remove the many threats we have become used to. May the good Lord be your guide and inspiration.
WENESO OROGUN
