Africa’s major economies entered 2026 with tentative signs of macroeconomic stabilisation, as slowing inflation, improving currencies and policy reforms begin to rebuild investor confidence. Yet uneven growth, shifting bank profitability and persistent structural constraints highlight a recovery that remains fragile and highly differentiated across regions.
Here are some of the stories
Markets open year on cautious recovery
January indicators across key economies including Ghana, Zambia and Zimbabwe point to easing inflation, stabilising exchange rates and gradually improving growth expectations. Reform momentum and tighter macroeconomic management are helping restore confidence, though structural bottlenecks and uneven regional performance continue to cloud the broader continental outlook.
Why it matters: Early-year stability signals improving macro credibility, a critical factor for attracting foreign capital and lowering borrowing costs across African markets.
South Africa leads institutional asset rankings
South Africa retains a dominant position in Africa’s institutional investment landscape with roughly $268 billion in assets, driven largely by the Government Employees Pension Fund’s more than $150 billion portfolio. Libya ranks second at $167 billion, followed by Morocco ($92 billion) and Egypt ($67 billion), while Nigeria, Ethiopia, Algeria and Zambia trail behind.
Why it matters: Deep domestic capital pools strengthen financial stability, support infrastructure financing and position leading markets to better withstand global volatility.
Falling rates to pressure bank earnings
Bank profitability in Nigeria and Egypt is expected to weaken as interest rates decline and inflation stabilises, while lenders in Morocco and South Africa should remain resilient, according to S&P Global. Credit growth and lower loan-loss provisions are likely to partly offset margin compression across most markets.
Why it matters: Banking-sector earnings shape credit availability, investment flows and overall economic momentum across the continent.
Uganda keeps PMI lead despite slowdown
Uganda remained Africa’s top ranked economy on the Purchasing Managers’ Index for a second straight month in January, even as activity cooled to a 10-month low of 52.6 from 54.0 in December—still above the 50 expansion threshold.
Why it matters: Sustained private-sector expansion signals underlying economic resilience despite moderating growth conditions.
Access Bank stays committed to South Africa
Access Holdings reaffirmed confidence in South Africa’s financial market after the proposed acquisition of Bidvest Bank collapsed when deal conditions were not met before the deadline.
Why it matters: Continued regional expansion by major African lenders underscores long-term confidence in intra-African banking integration despite short-term transaction setbacks.
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