Nigeria’s smartphone market shrank by 7 percent in the first quarter of 2025, as mounting economic pressures pushed consumers to prioritise essential goods, such as food, over digital devices. This is according to Canalys, now part of Omdia, a global technology market analyst firm, Q1 report on Africa’s smartphone market.
The decline follows a sluggish performance in Q3 2024, where the market grew by just one percent, weighed down by the depreciation of the naira, which lost more than 40 percent of its value against the dollar in 2024 alone.
Despite the contraction, Nigeria remained the continent’s second-largest smartphone market by volume in Q3 2024. The unification of the country’s foreign exchange market in 2023 led to record inflation, exceeding 30 percent in 2024. The naira has since become one of the world’s worst-performing currencies, plunging from N470/$ in June 2023 to N1,583.74/$ as of May 26, 2025.
Inflation stood at 23.71 percent in April 2025. Between January 2022 (15.6 percent) and the end of 2024, the sustained rise in inflation significantly eroded consumers’ purchasing power. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, inflation wiped out N7.61 trillion in consumer spending in 2023 alone.
This economic strain hit the import-dependent smartphone market hard, threatening digital inclusion efforts. Smartphones are essential for access to internet connectivity and digital services. Smartphone penetration in urban Nigeria grew to 59 percent and 26 percent in rural areas in 2023, according to GSMA, the global telecoms body.
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“We import our phones, and higher dollar prices mean higher prices,” stated Ifeanyi Akubue, president of the Phone and Allied Product Dealers Association of Nigeria (PAPDAN).
Adeolu Ogunbanjo, president of the National Association of Telecoms Subscribers (NATCOMS), added, “Mobile phones are a necessity, but people now face difficult choices between feeding and buying phones.”
This financial squeeze has driven demand for entry-level smartphones, particularly those made by Transsion and Xiaomi. However, much of their sales have been enabled by device financing schemes.
“Financing schemes like TRANSSION’s Easy Buy and Palmpay have successfully enabled consumers to purchase new smartphones through long-term installment plans, a model now being emulated by other brands,” stated Manish Pravinkumar, senior consultant for Middle East and Africa (MEA) at Canalys.
However, he cautioned that while such financing options, including those by OnPhone Mobile and LOOP in Kenya and EasyBuy in Nigeria, have broadened access, they also raise concerns about consumer debt sustainability.
Still, Canalys maintained that Nigeria’s large, youthful, and tech-savvy population offers long-term growth potential for the market, despite its current struggles.
Nigeria’s market trajectory contrasts with that of the broader African continent, which recorded its eighth consecutive quarter of growth. Canalys revealed that smartphone shipments in Africa rose 6 percent year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q1 2025, reaching 19.4 million units.
“While other regions saw weaker demand for entry-level devices, Africa benefited from resilient offline retail activity and renewed vendor focus on broad-based market coverage,” the firm noted. “Q1 momentum was also supported by targeted policy moves in key markets, easing currency volatility and early-year product refreshes aimed at the value-conscious segment.”
In North Africa, Egypt led with a 34 percent y-o-y growth in shipments, followed by Algeria with 16 percent. In Sub-Saharan Africa, South Africa posted 14 percent growth, while Kenya saw a modest 1 percent growth.
“Africa’s smartphone market holds promise in 2025, but persistent economic challenges are keeping growth in check,” Pravinkumar said.
On the brand front, Transsion, maker of Tecno and Infinix, saw a 5 percent y-o-y decline in Q1 2025, breaking a streak of seven consecutive quarters of growth on the continent.
“Competitors have begun replicating their three-tier channel model, built on national distributors, regional wholesalers and micro-retailers offering credit, promotions, and localised after-sales support,” Pravinkumar explained.
He noted that rivals are increasingly capturing the attention of younger consumers through sleeker designs, better specs, and bold marketing strategies.
Samsung, with a 21 percent market share in Africa, performed strongly in South Africa and Egypt. While the brand continues to push its premium models, its A-series, including the A06 and A16, accounted for 60 percent of its total shipments, appealing to cost-conscious buyers.
Xiaomi recorded 32 percent growth, driven by strong performance in Egypt and Nigeria. OPPO grew by 17 percent, while HONOR posted a 283 percent surge.
Overall, Canalys projects a 3 percent growth in Africa’s smartphone market in 2025, amid challenges like infrastructure deficits, rising sovereign debt, and macroeconomic instability.
