Southern African economies are sustaining a rare period of price stability, with Zambia and Zimbabwe maintaining single-digit inflation for a second consecutive month in February 2026, supported by firmer currencies, favourable commodity prices and tight monetary policy.
Data compiled by Trading Economics shows annual inflation in Zambia eased to 7.5 percent in February, the lowest since March 2019, down from 9.4 percent in January. In Zimbabwe, inflation slowed further to 3.8 percent, the lowest since September 2018, from 4.1 percent the previous month.
The developments extend a disinflation trend across parts of the continent. Late last year, Ghana and Ethiopia also returned to single-digit inflation for the first time in several years following aggressive policy tightening, currency stabilisation and structural reforms supported by multilateral lenders.
Their return places them alongside countries such as South Africa, Kenya and Tanzania, which have largely kept inflation within manageable ranges despite global commodity shocks and currency volatility.
The trend reflects a broader easing of price pressures across Africa. The World Bank estimates that the number of African economies recording single-digit inflation will increase from 27 in 2022 to 37 by 2025, highlighting the scale of the disinflation underway.
“Consumer price inflation has continued to recede across most sub-Saharan African countries, albeit at varying speeds,” the World Bank said in its latest Africa’s Pulse report.
“The projected acceleration in growth in 2025 is underpinned by improved terms of trade across much of the region, contributing to currency stabilisation and, in some cases, appreciation.”
Zimbabwe: A historic milestone
Zimbabwe’s return to single-digit inflation marks a significant milestone in the country’s long struggle with hyperinflation and currency instability.
Inflation dropped to 4.1 percent in January, the first single-digit reading since 1997, before easing further to 3.8 percent in February. The slowdown follows a sharp decline from 85.7 percent recorded in April last year, highlighting the scale of the recent turnaround.
“This marks a historic moment for Zimbabwe,” Mthuli Ncube, the country’s finance minister, said in a statement earlier this year.
The disinflation is closely linked to the introduction of the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) currency in April 2024, backed by gold and foreign reserves. ZiG represents Zimbabwe’s sixth attempt since 2009 to establish a functional local currency and reduce dependence on the US dollar.
Authorities say sustaining single-digit inflation is central to plans to make ZiG the country’s sole legal tender by 2030. The central bank has set benchmarks including maintaining price stability and building reserves capable of covering three to six months of imports.
According to Ncube, foreign assets backing the ZiG rose to $1.2 billion by December 2024, from $276 million at launch.
The central bank last week kept its policy rate unchanged at 35 percent, signalling its intention to maintain a tight monetary stance to anchor inflation expectations and prevent a relapse into price instability.
Zambia: Strong kwacha and copper boost stability
Zambia’s improving inflation outlook reflects a combination of currency strength, rising copper prices and improved external financing conditions.
The kwacha has emerged as Africa’s best-performing currency as of February, appreciating 17.7 percent to 18.79 per dollar since the start of the year.
Currency strength has played a key role in easing imported inflation. The kwacha was also among Africa’s strongest currencies in 2025, supported by tighter monetary policy and strong copper export revenues.
Copper accounts for more than 70 percent of Zambia’s export earnings and roughly a quarter of government revenue, helping stabilise the country’s external balance and strengthen the currency.
The International Monetary Fund recently approved a $190 million disbursement, closing Zambia’s current financing programme and paving the way for further engagement with international lenders.
However, signs of softness are emerging in the domestic economy.
Zambia’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.3 in February, down from 50.2 in January, signalling the first deterioration in private-sector business conditions in nearly a year.
“The February PMI report shows that overall private sector business conditions declined for the first time in almost a year,” said Musenge Komeki, head of sales at Stanbic Bank.
“Output and new orders contracted amid weaker demand and increased competition from cheaper imports driven by an appreciating kwacha.”
Komeki noted that firms responded by reducing purchasing activity, slightly increasing employment and cutting selling prices to remain competitive.
Despite the slowdown in activity across manufacturing, construction, and wholesale and retail sectors, business sentiment improved as companies anticipate stronger demand later in the year.
