This week’s Africa finance landscape is being shaped by rising geopolitical risk in the Middle East, resilient capital market performance in South Africa, early signs of currency stabilisation in parts of the continent, renewed Mergers and acquisitions movement in banking, and easing inflation pressures in East Africa.
Together, the signals point to a continent navigating external shocks while pockets of macro stability begin to emerge.
Middle East crisis raises energy risk for Africa
The joint US–Israeli operation that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday, has raised geopolitical tensions, sending Brent crude up about 10 percent to above $82 per barrel. The move followed attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil flows. Analysts warn prices could exceed $100 if the conflict escalates.
Why it matters: Higher oil prices pose asymmetric risks across Africa. Importers such as Egypt face renewed external and fiscal pressure, while exporters like Nigeria could see revenue gains tempered by domestic fuel inflation. The episode reinforces Africa’s continued vulnerability to external energy shocks and could complicate the region’s disinflation path in 2026.
JSE breaks profit record on strong market activity
The Johannesburg Stock Exchange reported full-year net profit of R1.07 billion ($57.8 million), up 16.7 percent from R918 million ($49.6 million) in 2024 — the first time earnings have crossed the one-billion-rand mark. Headline EPS rose 17.7 percent to 1,329 cents, while return on equity improved to 22.0 percent.
Why it matters: The milestone underscores renewed investor confidence in South African financial assets and highlights the earnings resilience of exchange operators despite global volatility. It also signals strengthening capital market depth at a time when African exchanges are competing for global flows.
Kwacha, naira lead Africa’s FX recovery
Zambia’s kwacha and Nigeria’s naira emerged as Africa’s top-performing currencies in the first two months of 2026. The kwacha gained 17.7 percent to 18.79 per dollar, while the naira strengthened 6.95 percent to around N1,353.4 per dollar. Overall, eight of 17 African currencies tracked have appreciated year to date.
Why it matters: The gains suggest tentative macro stabilisation in parts of the continent following aggressive reforms and tighter monetary policy in 2024–2025. However, the uneven performance across currencies shows the continent’s FX recovery remains fragile and highly sensitive to external shocks — especially oil and global risk sentiment.
Bidvest restarts bank sale after Access deal collapse
South Africa’s Bidvest has relaunched the sale of Bidvest Bank after its proposed disposal to Nigeria’s Access Bank failed to close before the regulatory long-stop date. The restart comes alongside interim results showing steady earnings growth and strong cash generation.
Why it matters: The renewed sale process keeps cross-border banking consolidation in focus and highlights the persistent regulatory complexity in African financial M&A. For Nigerian banks pursuing pan-African expansion, the episode is a reminder that execution risk remains high despite strategic ambition.
Kenya’s inflation falls to six-month low
Kenya’s annual inflation eased to 4.3 percent in February from 4.4 percent in January, marking a six-month low. Monthly consumer prices rose just 0.2 percent, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.
Why it matters: Cooling inflation strengthens the case for a continued easing bias by the Central Bank of Kenya and signals improving price stability in East Africa’s largest economy. If sustained, the trend could support credit growth, consumer demand and local bond market performance in 2026.
Chart of the Week
