Nigeria’s real estate sector is moving from just developing land and building to a regime of capital discipline, driven by rigorous financing, market data, and clear exit strategies. This has become the only way for developers to survive and for investors to protect their wealth in 2026, as high borrowing costs and a cooling inflationary environment kill off the era of unscalable projects.
This was discussed at the Property Investment and Smart Cities Conference organised by BusinessDay, themed: ‘Property Investment in an Era of Capital Discipline.’
Hakeem Ogunniran, chief executive officer of Esimia Realty, defined capital discipline as a strategic approach prioritising risk mitigation and long-term sustainability. He highlighted the need to align on market opportunities, quality development, regulatory compliance, and market absorption.
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“The traditional build-and-they-will-come model is being replaced by a rigorous, financing-first approach, with metrics like yield, risk, security, and exit being crucial for capital trust,” he said.
This shift toward discipline comes as Nigeria enters a disinflationary cycle; with inflation cooling to 15.1 percent in January 2026, investors are no longer just hedging against rising prices, they are now hunting for real, sustainable growth.
With the Monetary Policy Rate still at a high of 26.5 percent, the cost of debt remains a barrier. Experts suggest that cement and land are no longer enough to cover interest obligations, forcing developers to prioritise projects with rapid market absorption.
Ogunniran also mentioned that for the capital-disciplined developer, the future belongs to those who stop building for the prestige of the past and start building for the demographic realities of 2026.
While 66 percent of the population is under 30, it is the ageing three percent, nearly 11.5 million Nigerians aged 65 and above, that could define the next decade of institutional real estate.
Ogunniran noted that the Japa syndrome is not just a brain drain; it is a caregiver drain.
“As young professionals migrate to Europe and North America, they leave behind an elderly population with increasing disposable income from foreign remittances but a total deficit of local support.”
“With the rate at which people are shipping their wards abroad, care homes will be a massive asset class in the next five-ten years,” Ogunniran said.
Paying attention to demographic realities, at UPDC, Odunayo Ojo, chief executive officer at UPDC Plc, said that the firm has moved from luxury to middle-income housing due to strategic reasons and the sustainability of scale in these segments.
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While the Naira has stabilised near N1,350 per dollar, expert says that construction cost inflation from previous years has permanently raised the entry price for new builds, making yield and exit metrics more crucial than ever for capital trust.
Udo Okonjo, chief executive officer, Fine & Country International, also said that capital is not sentimental, and for investors to release capital, they need to first of all understand the rules of real estate.
Okonjo noted that investment has to be strategic and should go to where there is profitability and a market. “Because predictability is not just about the person who is giving capital,” but also about the one who will utilise the capital.
