Nigeria’s state governments are spending more than ever, but much of that money is failing to translate into usable infrastructure, from roads and schools to clinics, water systems, and local markets that communities rely on daily.
New data from Tracka BudgIT shows that weak execution, abandoned projects, and outright fraud are eroding the economic returns of public capital spending, turning record budgets into stranded assets rather than engines of growth, and leaving many communities with little to show for rising allocations.
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Where execution falters
The report highlights a stark mismatch between allocations and delivery. While officials often claim that most states achieve over 80 percent capital budget execution, Tracka BudgIT’s data shows that only a handful convert funding into completed projects.
Katsina stands out as the only state to complete more than 85 percent of its 114 tracked projects in 2024, valued at N26.79 billion. Most other states fall far short, exposing a wide gap between reported performance and actual project delivery.
Rivers, Bauchi, Gombe, and Kano performed moderately well, with completion rates above 65 per cent, while Delta and Ondo lagged behind. Meanwhile, Taraba, Abia, Nasarawa, Adamawa, and Ogun accounted for 97.5 percent of abandoned projects despite full disbursement of funds.
Quadri Faruk, an economist at SPEC-MATRIX, says many of Nigeria’s delivery failures stem from weak local governance structures. “States must build capacity, create performance incentives, and strengthen monitoring frameworks to ensure capital budgets translate into effective service delivery,” he said. “Local governments also need better tools to manage and track projects, including real-time monitoring platforms.”
“For vulnerable communities, the cost is immediate. In Kaibo Sabo, Gwagwalada, failed projects cause daily hardship.”
These gaps in delivery reveal that higher allocations alone do not ensure results, raising questions about the efficacy of state capital spending.
Why bigger budgets fail to deliver
Economic theory holds that public capital expenditure should generate a multiplier effect, with government spending on infrastructure stimulating growth, creating jobs, and improving welfare. Nigeria’s experience, however, tells a different story.
Delays, abandoned projects, and weak management prevent public funds from turning into usable assets, eroding their economic impact. Even relatively well-resourced states like Lagos complete just 50.91 percent of tracked projects. For a state that anchors Nigeria’s economy, weak execution shakes confidence far beyond its borders.
For vulnerable communities, the cost is immediate. In Kaibo Sabo, Gwagwalada, failed projects cause daily hardship.
“My friend lost his wife in 2015 because there was no health facility in the community,” said Kabiru Yusuf Pada, an Abuja-based community leader. “When the chairman said we had been given a hospital, we thought our suffering was over. Instead, things became worse. They left us like this, and we have lost countless brothers and sisters.”
Patterns of failure
Project-level data reveal recurring problems nationwide. Many projects remain ongoing well into the budget year. In Oyo, 36.96 percent of projects were still underway, nearly matching its completion rate. Abia recorded 37.5 percent ongoing projects and just 36 percent completed.
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In other states, abandonment dominates. Ondo completed only 24.51 percent of projects, with more than half abandoned. Yobe’s abandoned projects accounted for 50.76 percent, far exceeding its 29.63 percent completion rate. Plateau and Taraba also posted abandonment rates above 30 percent.
Some states, including Adamawa and Benue, failed to start a significant share of projects, with 17.95 percent and 16.67 percent listed as “not done”, pointing to planning or procurement failures.
In some states, the problem goes beyond delays and poor planning. Tracka, BudgIT’s data, shows that a significant share of capital projects are flagged as fraudulent, raising questions about whether public funds are being diverted rather than delayed.
Fraud and weak governance
Poor delivery often coincides with fraud. Delta completed fewer than two out of every ten projects, with 31.49 percent flagged as fraudulent and another 30.39 percent abandoned. Northern states such as Kaduna, Kano, and Kwara also recorded high shares of projects flagged for irregularities, while Nasarawa posted the highest fraud share at 41.06 percent despite completing just 40.79 percent of projects.
Tracka BudgIT notes that moderate headline completion rates can mask deeper governance failures, as large portions of capital spending may be lost to irregular or compromised projects.
Lessons from better-performing states
States with higher completion rates tend to show low abandonment and limited fraud exposure. Katsina completed 85.84 percent of projects, with no abandonments and a small fraud share. Rivers completed 74.26 percent, with abandonment at just 5.56 percent and no fraud flagged. In these cases, execution failures appear contained, allowing capital spending to produce tangible assets.
Bridging the gap
The report recommends tighter oversight, transparent procurement, and real-time project monitoring. Budget allocations, it argues, should be tied to measurable outcomes rather than headline spending increases.
Joshua Osiyemi, Head of Tracka at BudgIT, said: “When people see their contributions translated into clinics stocked with medicines, schools equipped with textbooks, and roads that stand the test of time, they are more willing to pay taxes and less tolerant of corruption. Trust becomes a virtuous circle, driving higher compliance, increased revenue, improved services, and greater legitimacy.”
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Tracka, BudgIT’s findings underscore a core weakness in Nigeria’s fiscal system: bigger budgets alone do not guarantee bigger economic impacts. High shares of stalled, abandoned, or fraudulent projects reduce the returns on public spending and weaken growth prospects.
Without stronger project screening, procurement discipline, and continuous monitoring beyond fund release, state budgets will continue to produce fragmented assets, delayed benefits, and limited economic spillovers.
