With Osun State gearing up for the August 8, 2026, governorship election, the political climate is already intense as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has fixed March 11, for official commencement of public campaigns.
Political alignments are shifting, rhetoric is hardening, and the major contenders are positioning themselves around narratives that they believe will resonate most with voters.
At the centre of the unfolding contest is Governor Ademola Adeleke, whose dramatic defection from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the Accord Party (AP), and his emergence as the party’s governorship candidate, has fundamentally altered the political landscape.
Equally significant is the challenge from the All Progressives Congress (APC), which has settled for Bola Oyebamiji, as its candidate, setting the stage for what many observers describe as a straight contest between the incumbent governor and the main opposition party in the state.
Analysts are of the view that the 2026 election will be shaped by a complex mix of governance performance, economic realities, social services, infrastructure delivery, party dynamics, electoral integrity, security concerns and voter sentiment. It is argued that together, these issues will define campaign narratives and ultimately influence voter choices.
Defection and battle for political legitimacy
Governor Adeleke’s defection from the PDP to the Accord Party is seen as the most consequential political development ahead of the election.
The development has generated intense debate sequel to the fact that for a sitting governor to abandon a major party platform for a relatively smaller party is unusual in Nigerian politics.
However, supporters of the governor have described the move as a strategic recalibration driven by internal party disagreements and the desire for greater political control. But critics see it as opportunistic and question whether Adeleke still commands the kind of institutional backing that helped propel him to office in 2022.
BusinessDay reports that the defection has forced a reshuffling of political loyalties across the state, as some PDP stalwarts have followed Adeleke to Accord, while others have stayed behind, nursing grievances and exploring alliances with other parties.
For the APC, the development presents both an opportunity and a challenge, an opportunity to exploit PDP fragmentation, and a challenge to overcome Adeleke’s incumbency advantage. Pundits say these issues will feature during the campaigns.
Adeleke’s performance record
Pundits have also argued that one of the most dominant issues in the 2026 race will be the performance record of the Adeleke administration. The election is increasingly being framed as a referendum on whether the governor deserves a second term.
Governor Adeleke will face APC’s Oyebamiji, candidates of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and many others.
However, a political analyst, Jackson Lekan Ojo, said the APC might have posed a stronger challenge to Governor Adeleke if it had fielded Senator Iyiola Omisore, former national Ssecretary of the party, as its governorship candidate.
Speaking with BusinessDay in a telephone interview, Ojo argued that the party undermined itself by disqualifying Omisore from its primaries.
“The only person who could have given Adeleke a fair fight is Senator Iyiola Omisore. But he was not even allowed to participate in the primary; he was disqualified. Someone who has been a deputy governor and a senator for about 12 years was pushed aside. That is unfortunate.
“Today, Governor Adeleke is more popular than any political party in Osun State. Across party lines, Adeleke is the candidate most people will vote for. I am confident he will secure an overwhelming percentage of the votes cast in the election,” he said.
But the APC and other critics tell a different story. They accuse the governor of misgovernance, policy inconsistency and weak institutional capacity. They claim that while the administration is strong on optics and public relations, it is weak on long-term planning and execution.
The APC candidate, Oyebamiji, had described Adeleke as a “dancing governor”, arguing that his consistent public show of dance has been affecting governance in the state. But Adeleke had dismissed this line of attack, insisting that his dancing does not interfere with his official responsibilities and that he would continue to dance as it pleases him.
APC’s internal dynamics and credibility
While much attention is focused on Adeleke, pundits have said the APC’s internal cohesion will also shape the election.
The party has faced periodic tensions over zoning, aspirant disqualifications and leadership struggles. Although Oyebamiji has emerged as the candidate, lingering resentments among aggrieved aspirants are seen as a threat.
BusinessDay reports that the APC Screening Committee, chaired by Obinna Uzoh, had disqualified seven of its nine aspirants for the December 13, 2025, primary ahead of the August 8, 202,6 governorship election.
Those disqualified were high-profile politicians, including Iyiola Omisore, former two-term senator and Lagos Assembly member, Babajide Omoworare; former Deputy Governor, Benedict Alabi, and other notable party figures like Babatunde Oralusi, Oyedotun Babayemi, Akinade Ogunbiyi, and Adegoke Adekunle.
Only Mulikat Jimoh and Munirudeen Oyebanji were cleared, having met all constitutional and guideline requirements, including proper sponsorship from party members across the state’s local government areas, according to the party. There are fears that this may not help the party. Though party officials have countered this claim, saying reconciliation has since taken place.
Issue-based campaigning
Civil society organisations, religious leaders and traditional rulers have continued to call for issue-based campaigns and peaceful conduct of the election. Recall that Osun has experienced political violence in the past, and stakeholders are keen to avoid a repeat.
It is said that the tone adopted by party leaders and candidates will be critical in either calming or inflaming tensions, while confidence in the electoral process will significantly influence turnout.
Advocacy groups are also intensifying voter education efforts, especially among first-time voters. Concerns about vote buying, intimidation and manipulation remain, even if large-scale incidents have not yet been reported. How effectively these issues are managed will shape perceptions of legitimacy.
Debates around the effectiveness of local security initiatives, including the state’s role in supporting regional outfits such as Amotekun, may feature in campaign discussions.
Adeleke’s supporters have emphasised his grassroots appeal, accessibility and “people’s governor” image. They portray him as a humble leader who connects easily with ordinary citizens. But opponents paint a picture of an unserious administration that prioritises spectacle over substance.
The APC frames the election as an opportunity to “rescue” Osun and restore what it calls credible governance. These competing stories will shape how voters interpret facts and judge performance.
Economic front
Observers say economic concerns will rank among the most potent campaign issues. Osun, like many Nigerian states, grapples with high youth unemployment, underemployment and rising living costs.
Young people, who constitute a large portion of the electorate, are increasingly vocal about the lack of sustainable job opportunities. Campaign promises around skills acquisition, entrepreneurship funding, industrial parks and agricultural value chains will therefore be closely scrutinised.
Adeleke’s emphasis on agro-industrialisation seeks to tap into Osun’s agricultural potential, especially in cocoa, cassava and other cash crops. His camp argues that strengthening agro-processing and attracting investors into agribusiness will create thousands of jobs.
But opponents counter that such plans remain largely aspirational and that concrete results are yet to be seen at scale. They insist that voters should demand clear timelines, budgets and measurable targets.
Closely linked to this debate is the question of revenue utilisation. Critics accuse the state government of mismanaging resources, particularly in light of increased federal allocations following subsidy removal.
They argue that higher revenues have not translated into commensurate improvements in public welfare. But the government rejects these claims, maintaining that funds are being channelled into priority sectors.
Others issues
Analysts say the issue of human capital development will also shape the campaigns. In education, opposition figures have consistently accused the government of failing to recruit enough teachers to address shortages in public schools and of underfunding critical areas such as infrastructure, instructional materials and teacher training.
But the government responds by pointing to ongoing school renovations and policy reforms.
BusinessDay reports that health care delivery is similarly contested. While the administration cites upgrades to selected facilities and improved access to primary health care, critics argue that many hospitals remain understaffed and poorly equipped.
Social services, including support for the elderly, people with disabilities and low-income households, are increasingly important to voters who expect government to cushion the impact of economic hardship.
Adeleke’s camp will be expected to showcase completed and ongoing projects as evidence of progress during the campaigns. Observers say to many voters, especially in rural areas, the presence or absence of functional roads and basic amenities will weigh more heavily than abstract policy debates.
At its core, pundits say the race will revolve around whether Governor Ademola Adeleke has done enough to deserve a second term, and whether the opposition can present a compelling alternative.
As political actors sharpen their strategies and voters weigh their choices, analysts say the outcome will depend not only on party machinery and elite alliances, but also on how convincingly each side addresses the everyday concerns of the Osun electorate.
