As next year’s presidential election draws closer, one had expected that some of these socio-political groups rooting for Goodluck Jonathan’s reelection next year, especially those with heavy media presence, would have started complementing such with foot-soldiers on ground. But, to my chagrin, some of the so-called pro-Jonathan groups are only media tigers without the needed manpower to deliver victory to the president come February 14, 2015. This observation has become very necessary and timely because as a communication scholar and practicing journalist, I know the limit of media in influencing voting decisions in our clime. This is because no media message gets to the voters in the exact way it was intended or designed. This is why Two-Step Flow theory was introduced by communication experts.
Two-Step Flow is a communication theory which asserts that information from the media and the message received by the people are influenced by opinion leaders. This theory says opinion leaders are very influential in getting people to change their attitudes and behaviours towards a particular candidate. For example, in 1944, there was a study conducted in the United States and published by Paul Lazarsfeld, Bernard Berelson and Hazel Gaudet in the ‘People’s Choice’. The study focused on the process of decision-making during a presidential election campaign. The researchers were out to find empirical support for the direct influence of media messages on voting intensions. So, they were shocked to discover that informal news sources and personal contacts were mentioned by their respondents more frequently than exposure to radio, television and newspaper messages as their sources of influence in deciding who or who not to vote for. Those who add their personal influence to media message and as well distort the actual media content and then pass on their own interpretation of the message to the electorates are called opinion leaders. Hence, what happens between media’s direct message and the audience’s reaction to the message is determined by opinion leaders.
It is for this reason that Paul Lazarsfeld and co developed the two-step flow communication hypothesis which has been proved to become theory. Understanding this theory will help to explain why certain media campaigns for Jonathan’s reelection next year may not be yielding the desired results – because there are no field soldiers to help correlate the unbiased and undiluted versions and then pass them on to the electorates to be well informed. It is when they are better informed that the electorates can make better electoral decisions next year. Members of the would-be Jonathan/Sambo Presidential Campaign Organsiation should therefore device how to blend the role of the media and the role of the opinion leaders for undisputed Jonathan victory next year.
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But while we await the composition and inauguration of the Jonathan/Sambo Campaign Organsiation, an official campaign organisation of the PDP which will solely drive Jonathan’s presidential campaign after the party’s convention in December, some of the socio-political organisations publicising the president’s achievements as well as sponsoring propaganda against Jonathan’s opponent in the print media should start galvanising eligible voters for the president ahead of the polls. This is what the president needs at this very moment. The ultimate goal for now should be how to return Jonathan next year. Since the Jonathan is a leading candidate for the election, all he needs are realistic strategies that will continually keep him ahead of other candidates until the election is conducted. This is because a winner must be proactive to remain relevant and not reactionary to cause division in his support base.
This is not to condemn the various ongoing media campaigns for Jonathan, but instead of all the pro-Jonathan organisations jostling for space in the media, some of them should hire reputable poll stars to conduct polls in likely difficult states and as well study the results, and then design a strategy on how to turn those difficult states to possible victory states for Jonathan next year. The era of adopting one campaign strategy for all the six geo-political zones in the country is over because the likely challenges that President Jonathan would face vary from zone to zone. For example, the strategy that works in South East and South-South geo-political zones may not work in North West, North East or even South West. The aim of the pre-election poll is to get the baseline data, analyse them and then formulate winning strategy for each zone, and then pass them across to the president and his think tanks. The president will appreciate this more than the media campaigns of calumny on opponents that don’t usually get to the real voters.
Besides, most of the media messages as currently observed are done in English, whereas we have over 350 ethnic groupings in the 120,000 polling stations across the country, each with its unique language. Those who will continue with publicity role for Jonathan should, as a matter of necessity, translate Jonathan’s achievements in all the languages in the country. If one vote can make the president to win an election, then an entire ethnic group should not be ignored.
Edwin Uhara