Just over a year ago, Keir Starmer led Labour to a historic landslide. With 411 seats in the House of Commons and a majority of 174, he appeared to have secured a decade in power after 14 years of Conservative rule. Instead, just 15 months on, Starmer is now the most unpopular British prime minister on record — and his party is staring into the abyss.
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From triumph to turmoil
Labour’s 2024 victory was the party’s biggest in a century, crushing the Conservatives and raising expectations of sweeping change. But according to Ipsos, only 13 percent of voters are now satisfied with Starmer, while 79 percent are not. No other prime minister in modern history — not those who dragged the country into unpopular wars, mishandled the pandemic, or presided over economic collapse — has reached such depths of unpopularity.
Polls reflect the collapse in confidence. Labour has sunk to around 20 percent support, while Reform UK — the hard-right party led by Nigel Farage — has surged to 35 percent, the same share Labour won last year. Many within Labour fear a nightmare scenario: Reform sweeping into government with a majority as commanding as the one Starmer enjoyed just a year ago.
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The Enigma of Starmer
For voters, part of the problem is that Starmer himself remains an enigma. He once told an interviewer he doesn’t dream. He has no favourite novel. He has no political hero. That lack of a personal narrative translates into politics: while previous leaders were defined by clear ideologies, Starmer is defined largely by pragmatism. John Curtice, the veteran pollster, told CNN that the absence of any guiding “Starmerism” has left voters confused.
A Labour backbencher put it more bluntly to CNN: Starmer failed to “set out a vision” and has since “struggled to weave a coherent narrative” linking his policies together.
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A political squeeze
Starmer has tried to fend off Reform’s rise by talking tough on immigration, posting frequently about his government’s crackdowns on small boat crossings and warning Britain risked becoming “an island of strangers.” But critics say this strategy simply mimics Farage’s rhetoric, alienating progressive voters without winning over sceptical conservatives.
The gamble backfired this summer when Britain’s immigration debate boiled over. Protests erupted outside asylum hotels. Then an estimated 100,000 people marched through London at an anti-immigration rally where billionaire Elon Musk told the crowd: “You either fight back or die.”
Sscandals and poor optics
If the political strategy is muddled, the optics are worse. According to CNN, questions about property deals have dogged Starmer and his former deputy Angela Rayner. In one case, Starmer sold a field behind his parents’ house — originally bought for £20,000 so they could keep donkeys — for £300,000. Whether he paid the correct tax remains unclear. Starmer insists he did, but the murkiness has damaged his image.
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On its own, the case might seem trivial. But it plays into a damaging story: the barrister who promised integrity and decency now looks evasive, struggling to explain both his personal affairs and his plan for the country.
The economic drag
Labour’s biggest immediate problem, however, is the economy. The party spent years courting the business community before 2024. But a rise in employers’ National Insurance contributions has dented confidence and triggered job losses, particularly in the fragile hospitality sector. Unemployment is climbing, vacancies are falling, and manufacturers are reporting their worst contraction in output since March.
James Bentley, director at Financial Markets Online, told Al Jazeera that even a recent £150bn wave of US investment — announced during president Donald Trump’s state visit — has not shifted the mood. “Baleful economic numbers will be causing rising panic behind closed doors on Downing Street,” he said. “Things are going from bad to worse for Britain’s manufacturers, with manufacturing output now contracting at the fastest rate since March. Demand for British goods has weakened among both domestic and overseas buyers.”
Uncertain future
For now, Labour’s huge parliamentary majority shields Starmer from immediate collapse. But political gravity is catching up. Andy Burnham, Manchester mayor has hinted at a leadership challenge. If Labour continues to slump, party grandees may conclude that Starmer should be removed before the next election — officially due in 2029 but possibly earlier if the pressure becomes overwhelming.
Chris Francis, a retired teacher who voted Labour last year, summed up the mood: “The biggest thing that he promised was change. That was literally his campaign slogan. And yet nothing much has changed. Wages are rising higher than inflation, but it doesn’t feel like it for many people. I agree he isn’t the worst PM ever – but he failed to manage expectations before he got elected.”
A year ago, Labour looked set to dominate Britain for a generation. Today, it is fighting for survival.
