Politics
Tambuwal expected to announce Presidential ambition
After Bukola Saraki and Rabiu Kwankwaso declared their intent to contest for the Presidential ticket under PDP this past week, all eyes are now on Aminu Tambuwal to declare his intent to join the race to clinch the priced ticket. It will not be surprising if he announces that he will be running for the highest seat in Nigeria just as he intended in APC in 2015 before dropping out of the race later on. With the PDP presidential ticket zoned to the North, the presidential race is shaping up to be an all-northern affair.
Aspirants to pick up nomination forms, set up campaign committees
Presidential and gubernatorial aspirants are expected to begin picking their nomination forms in their respective parties this week. Less dramatic than the announcements of their presidential ambition but more important than just talking about their desire, politicians are expected to pick up their forms and begin campaigning aggressively at the grassroots to secure their party’s ticket.
The aspirants will also begin setting up their campaign committees as we enter the last four months of 2018, when the political race is expected to heat up.
Defections to continue among PDP and APC politicians
Politicians continue to swap parties as uncertainty over who will be victorious continues to cloud their judgments. As their lips move so will their feet as they seek to remain relevant in any party possible. Loyalties will surely be tested in the coming week.
Moghalu may lose credibility after breaking pact
Nigerians will begin to question the credibility of Kingsley Moghalu, a presidential aspirant of YPP after breaking a pact he initially agreed to when a group of young political parties came together to select one leader to back for the Presidential race. It initially looked like he had an outside chance to win; now his chances appear even slimmer as Nigerians are now wondering if his act displays worrying signs of untrustworthiness or the rationale behind his participation in the pact in the first place. Either ways, it throws his credibility into question.
Nigerians without PVC to seek another extension
The countdown to the election is set to begin as voter’s registration closed last Friday. However with thousands of Nigerians still without PVC, INEC will be under pressure to once again extend voter’s registration whether they succumb to the pressure, we will wait and see.
Economy & Markets
Foreign outflows to accelerate after CBN/MTN saga
Outflow of foreign funds may jump this week as foreign investors begin to exit Nigeria capital markets en masse after news that CBN demanded MTN to return up to $8.1 billion allegedly illegally repatriated hit the market last week. Investors will probably reduce their portfolio allocation to Nigeria and foreign inflows will dip further as the week progresses.
Naira depreciates slightly in the FX market
With foreign outflows bound to rise and emerging market currencies selloff deepening further in the global markets, the contagion effect is set to hit the Naira this week as CBN battle to maintain the external reserves which has dropped slightly in recent months.
More pain for equity investors holding banks and multinationals
Investors holding banks and multinationals will see their share prices fall as uncertainty grows over the CBN’s decision to sanction four banks in the country for their alleged role in improperly repatriating profits on behalf of MTN between 2001 and 2006. The broad market index will decline further this week as year to date losses exceed 10 percent (correction) and approach bear market territory. The selloff which began in banks last week is likely to spread to multinationals operating in Nigeria and listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange.
Banks to refuse to pay sanctions, demand proof of wrongdoing
The four banks are expected to defy CBN orders to pay fines for illegally repatriating funds for MTN till it can be proved in the court of law that the funds were illegally repatriated without necessary approval by the monetary authority.
South African government reach out to their Nigerian counterpart on behalf of MTN
President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa may likely reach out to President Buhari this week to discuss matters from MTN to xenophobia to trade to free and fair elections in Nigeria next year. MTN will certainly set the agenda for this meeting for the two governments, although they will likely use the opportunity to thrash out other matters.
Emeka Ucheaga
