This article is a follow-up on last week’s titled, “Algeria: Africa’s gas superpower.” Algeria has the second largest proven natural gas reserves in Africa after Nigeria, but is by far the largest natural gas and liquefied national gas (LNG) producer and exporter in Africa, producing more gas than the other three major natural gas producers of Africa (Egypt, Nigeria and Mozambique) combined. The need to give an informed update on the global natural gas and LNG market in order to situate Nigeria’s gas development programme in the context of that market is the primary motivation for this article.
The LNG market which was tight in 2022-2025 is expected to loosen in 2026 with substantial increase in supply, especially from the United States and Qatar, but also from Canada; and lesser quantities from other countries, including Nigeria. Global LNG capacity is expected to increase by 46 metric tons per annum (mtpa) including 37 mtpa from new liquefaction capacity. Global LNG supply is expected to grow by 7 percent. The sustenance of the fragile peace between Israel and Hamas may see LNG shipping returning to the Suez Canal, cutting down on transportation cost and further increasing global supply liquidity. The easing of geopolitical uncertainty in Europe in the likelihood of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will see the return of Russian gas to the global market. Thus, the three major factors to look out for in monitoring the global natural gas and LNG market in 2026, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) will be “supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and price fluctuations in the global gas and LNG market.” The IEA sees global gas demand picking up in 2026, especially in Asia which is more price sensitive, after it faltered in 2025 – accelerating from 1.3 percent to 2.0 percent as a result of more favourable market fundamentals induced by the quantum increase in gas supply expected in 2026. LNG imports in Asia are expected to grow by 10 percent with India as a key demand hotspot, while LNG demand in Europe is expected to grow by 5 percent in 2026. On the whole, global LNG demand is expected to ramp up to 441 mtpa in 2026, driven largely by Asia, while European LNG demand will stabilise at about 145 mtpa. According to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), “global gas demand is projected to increase at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.5 percent until 2030, with LNG representing approximately 10-15 percent of that demand.)
Tremendous growth and shifts which began in supply and demand in 2026 are expected to continue to 2028 and through to 2035. Supply will continue to be determined largely by expanded liquefaction capacity in the United States, Qatar and Canada as well as geopolitical outcomes in Ukraine and the Middle East, with 150 mtpa added between 2026 and 2028 resulting in oversupply after a period of tight supply (2022-2025) with supply increases averaging 50 mtpa through to 2028; and global supply hitting 666.5 mtpa. Demand, on the other hand, will be largely determined by rising demand in Asia, especially China and India; Pakistan and Bangladesh will also be expected to benefit from higher demand fueled by lower gas prices induced by excess supply. Rising electricity demand in the United States driven by rapid increases in data centres fueled by Artificial Intelligence (AI) and cloud computing will add 12 percent to power demand in the United States. Similar digital technology induced power demand surge is expected to happen in other highly industrialised economies of the world, with some lag effects. In the near term, demand in Europe will stabilise because of increasing concerns about fossil fuel driving decarbonisation, but AI and cloud computing energy requirements may counterbalance that for some years, impacting on demand for natural gas and LNG. By and large the excess supply of gas especially accounted for by increased liquefaction capacity in the USA, Qatar and Canada totaling over 300 billion cubic meters (bcm) will be absorbed globally through lower prices. Generally, we can see a buyers’ market scenario in the medium term going to 2030 characterised by emerging or unresolved geopolitical uncertainties, the pull of decarbonisation, high energy demand for computing power and impressive rates of economic development in China and India all combining to lead to price instability/uncertainty of natural gas and LNG.
Long term forecasts from GCEF and other recent 2025-2026 outlooks suggest a massive supply surge in global energy supply, which is projected to increase to 150 billion cubic feet per year in 2030, with capacity expected to exceed demand for the next decade. The major factors responsible for the supply surge will be new liquefaction facilities in the United States, Qatar and Sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria. The global market is expected to remain over-supplied between 2030 and 2035, although the magnitude will depend on whether demand in Asia can keep pace with surging supply due to expanding liquefaction infrastructure in North America, the Persian Gulf and Sub-Saharan Africa.
According to the Global Gas Outlook 2050 launched in March 2025 by GCEF natural gas will be the “pivotal resource of the future,” with LNG overtaking pipeline gas as dominant mode for global trade and doubling by 2050. There is always room for skepticism or doubt about the reliability of multi-decade long-term projections, as there are so many possible economic, geopolitical, environmental and technological uncertainties or developments that can make nonsense of such extended long-term projections. However, one thing is clear, decarbonisation notwithstanding, natural gas is the pivotal energy of the next two to three decades, especially LNG, propelled by expanding liquefaction and regasification facilities worldwide and its advantage over coal and gasoline as clean energy, and its increasing affordability due to shifts in long-term supply-demand fundamentals (long-term glut).
The bottom-line of this article is: how does Nigeria take an advantageous position in monetizing its huge natural gas deposits both for domestic use and exports? What can we learn from the aggressive expansion of liquefaction facilities in the United States and Qatar, especially? The United States is the global leader in LNG exports which stood at 111 mtpa in 2025, with new projects designed to expand capacity by over 100 mtpa. Qatar’s nameplate capacity stood at 77 mtpa from 2011 to 2023, but with ongoing projects which began in 2022 that capacity is expected to be boosted to 110-142 mtpa by 2027-2030. Nigeria, the leading LNG exporter in the whole of Africa has been celebrating the imminent addition of 7 mtpa to Nigeria Liquefied National Gas (NLNG) of 23 mtpa through its Train 7, which is expected to come on stream this year. This pales in significance compared to the humongous liquefaction capacity of Qatar, the tiny 3.2 million people Persian Gulf country. Wake up! the vaunted “Giant of Africa.” China, with a population (1.4 billion) roughly the same as India’s (1.46 billion) and gross domestic product (GDP) ($19.39 trillion) nearly five times that of India ($4.12 trillion), could truly call itself the “Giant of Asia” but it does not. But I will truly be proud to call my dear country Nigeria the ‘Giant of LNG liquefaction and export in Africa” if we can ramp up our LNG production in the next ten years to become one of the ten largest LNG exporters in the world to match our position as the country with one of the ten largest proven reserve of natural gas in the world. NLNG Train 8 should by now be in the pipeline; and the abandoned Bonny LNG and Olokola LNG projects should be revisited and revived with a sense of urgency. Nigeria needs to play in the top league of global natural gas and LNG exporters. Yes, we can!
Mr. Igbinoba is Team Lead/CEOs at ProServe Options Consulting, Lagos
