U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff blitz may do what years of diplomacy haven’t; push African nations to double down on their stalled free trade pact.
On April 2, Donald Trump’s retaliatory tariffs sent shockwaves throughout the global economy. The U.S. president had, on what he called “Liberation Day,” imposed sweeping retaliatory tariffs on trading partners, igniting a global trade war.
Among the hardest-hit were African nations. Trump slapped a baseline 10 percent tariff on all imports into the U.S., with some African countries, like Lesotho, facing levies as high as 50 percent.
While the move stoked fears of economic contraction, some economists say it could serve as a long-overdue wake-up call for the continent to speed up efforts toward deeper intra-African trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
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“I think what these Trump tariffs have done is to at least help accelerate the momentum of AfCFTA,” said Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE). “Because it has brought into reality that you cannot always depend on markets outside of the continent…We should also do a lot more about looking inwards within the continent.”
Trump’s tariffs struck Africa’s largest economies hard. South Africa and Algeria were slammed 30 percent. Egypt and Nigeria got 10 percent and 14 percent respectively.
“Many of them are hurt so much because they are also heavily dependent on the U.S. market,” Yusuf added. “So looking inwards within the continent, I think, is a strong message.”
The AfCFTA, launched in 2021, aims to integrate 55 African Union member states into a single market. But as the global trade order turns increasingly inward, African countries now face a moment of reckoning and opportunity.
Obiora Madu, chairman of Multimix group, called the current climate a catalyst. “Tea time is over,” he said. “What is not exported to America can be exported elsewhere. Some of those items can be traded within the continent. That’s exactly why they need to get Africa to work, and fast.”
Experts say each country’s strength varies. Nigeria’s lies in agro-processing.
“Our strongest areas are first in agro-allied products, that’s because of the nature of our economy. Then oil and gas. Also related are petrochemicals and fertilisers,” said Yusuf. “We are not so strong in manufacturing. But countries like South Africa, Morocco, and Egypt are, because they have better infrastructure.”
He also pointed to Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire noting that their main leverage is still in agri-primary products, “cocoa in particular, just as you have in Nigeria, and then they can elevate their competitiveness.”
Yusuf believes Nigeria’s untapped edge lies elsewhere, in services, particularly the digital and creative sectors. “We have advantages in ICT, financial services, entertainment, and music. We don’t talk about it enough,” he said, noting that services make up 80 percent of the U.S. economy.
Since 2000, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has granted duty-free trade with Africa on over 6,000 products. But 25 years later, experts say it is about to come to an end.
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“AGOA is as good as dead,” says Yusuf, citing Trump’s increasingly protectionist tone. “He doesn’t want to listen to all this free trade talk. So AGOA is gone.”
African nations may now have to negotiate with Washington individually. But there lies the problem, say researchers.
Patrick Ejumedia, head of research at Sterling Asset Management Trustees Limited, told BusinessDay that African countries have always individually negotiated, signed, and ratified Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) for FDI, “often framed in favour of capital-exporting nations, have, in many ways, curtailed Africa’s long-term industrialisation and constrained its economic sovereignty.”
Ejumedia argues that the types of BITs African countries are entering into are detrimental to the continent’s economic ambitions.
“The reason is simple but troubling: most African nations, desperate for capital inflows, lack the economic and political leverage to negotiate treaties that align with their development agendas. Instead, they are frequently bound by agreements that prioritise investor protection over domestic policy space, locking them into legal commitments that hinder structural transformation.”
This is why Ejumedia believes that AfCFTA matters more than ever. “The reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States provide yet another chance for African leaders not only to critique the imbalance of global trade rules, but also to leverage the AfCFTA as a strategic shield, a unified response to external trade pressures.”
He says the pact creates an opportunity to “speak with one voice” and “shape investment protocols” that align with the region’s needs including job creation, manufacturing growth, and value chain development.
Still, progress has been slow. Intra-African trade remains under 10 percent of the continent’s total trade volume, largely due to persistent tariff and non-tariff barriers—from customs inefficiencies to compliance issues and poor logistics.
One economist thinks a lack of connectivity across borders has become a pain for intra-African traders. “For those who are shipping containers to African countries, those containers will have to first go to Europe before they come back to Africa. Because you don’t have a direct link by all these big shipping containers to many of the African countries,” said Muda Yusuf.
Landlocked countries face even steeper challenges. “They are not coastal. So for them to trade, there has to be an effective road network.”
The divide is widened by regional tariffs. Recently The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), comprising the junta-led nations of Mali, Niger Republic, and Burkina Faso, introduced a 0.5 percent levy on imported goods from several West African countries, including Nigeria, which experts said acts as a trade barrier likely to reduce exports from Nigeria to the AES members.
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For Obiora Madu, non-tariff barriers are equally dangerous. He noted that in some countries, it was risky to be identified as Nigerian. “[Because] of our challenge of government and criminals and the rest of them, all of us are suspected. And that’s a very, very big non-tariff barrier,” he said.
Travel and visa restrictions also stifle commerce. “There are some particular countries you go to, you will pass two other countries before you get in there. So the restrictions are just too many, not just because of the three countries that are pulled out of ECOWAS. It’s all over,” Madu said.
“There are a lot of levies, transit levies, security levies, road maintenance levies. All those blocks will have to go for this to work,” Yusuf added.
East Africa is often cited as a model. “Things are moving more smoothly there. They have rail lines across countries. So if we can get regions integrated first, it will make life a lot easier,” Yusuf said. “But that’s not the case right now.”
Despite the economic shocks, experts warn that Africa must not waste another opportunity.
“Opportunities to deepen regional integration have been consistently missed,” Ejumedia said. “Rather than present a cohesive trade and investment front, many African states act in silos.”
He believes the current crisis is an inflection point. “It’s time to change course. African governments must move beyond fragmented trade discussions and begin aligning national strategies with the continental vision of the AfCFTA. The future of Africa hinges on negotiating smart trade agreements as a bloc, on our own terms and with our development goals at the core.”
