The country was beset by a separatist terrorist movement and religious tension from the north. There were historic ethnic tensions. Oil and gas was an issue. The political system was dominated by two political parties.
After the old leader declined, his deputy took over but faced a lot of resistance from vested interests. The new leader was from a politically under-represented ethnic group and some of the press were hostile. Insulting him too often and aiming to hound him out of office.
After US peace makers intervened, a political compromise was obtained and the country was divided into geo-political zones.
As the 2015 elections approach, a more urgent concern is that part of the North will secede … The government is planning to build a new train line with Chinese money…
The country facing this tumultuous socio-political upheaval… is Britain.
In the 1980s the Irish Republican Army (IRA) launched bombing campaigns demanding that the north of Britain (Northern Ireland) secede.
British tribalism is centuries old and hidden from the world, but the locals got it… In Northern Ireland the Catholic/Protestant split was also an ethnic one. The Catholic IRA is mostly ethnic Irish (a Gaelic people), while the Protestant groups were mostly English (of ethnic Anglo-Saxon descent).
It was only after the US president Bill Clinton’s envoy helped negotiate the 1998 ‘Good Friday’ agreement, in Belfast, that the quiet war calmed down. But, the IRA planted bombs in London over 20 times between 1990 and 2010.
Almost a decade later when Tony Blair left office and Gordon Brown – a Scottish man and an ethnic celt – took over, the English press was hostile. For example in February 2009, an English BBC TV presenter called him a ‘one eyed Scottish idiot’ – even though Gordon Brown had a Phd.
In September 2014, people in Scotland will vote in a referendum on whether or not to leave the United Kingdom. This unique part of northern Britain has oil and gas, 5m people or 9% of the UK’s 63m population and $250bn or 9% of the UK $2.4 trillion economy.
A general election is due in 2015. But polls show, Scottish independence is increasingly popular.
Nigeria on the other hand is … erm…. Well… surprisingly similar.
After Yar Adua’s demise in 2007 Goodluck Jonathan a southern Christian and ethnic Ijaw man took over as president. Since then the country has endured bombings from a Northern Muslim terrorist group call Boko Haram and elections next year are driving political tension. The president has been attacked repeatedly, some media commentators didn’t just called him an idiot; they implied he was a ‘baboon’.
The US and others have arrived in the country to help. But the bombings continue – even as elections approach, also in 2015.
Some people are asking if Nigeria as we know it will still exist this time next year.
The government has tried to focus on growing investment in the economy, hosting the World Economic Forum in Abuja – and for example signing an MOU with the Chinese for new rail infrastructure.
The similarities between Nigeria and the UK are numerous, but there are differences also…
The key political difference is Nigerians don’t have a referendum on separation to vote on… Instead a national confab of 492 men and women is debating the constitution in Abuja. Also we haven’t negotiated openly, so far.
Economically the difference is size. Our separatist region is proportionately bigger. Data on the size of the Northern Nigerian economy is poor and rapidly changing as people and businesses leave the most violent states affected by Boko Haram. It is estimated that circa $100bn (less than 20% of Nigeria’s $520bn GDP) and perhaps about 40 million people (or 25% of its population) are in the 11 or so Northern states considering Sharia law.
Perhaps that is why, broadly the Nigerian government’s focus on economics doesn’t go far enough. For example the $13.8bn Nigeria-China rail MoU is rumoured to be for a ‘coastal line’ only and doesn’t guarantee that a high enough proportion of the jobs will go to Nigerians. There does not appear to be a full environmental impact study or sustainable energy sources for a new network either. Also the rail project is not for ‘high speed’ rail like that in Britain. It is slow.
There is a Nigeria Network 2020 – NN2020 – plan that takes these things into consideration but it has not, so far, been adopted by the government.
At the heart of what we need is the ability to connect, economically. Even if Nigeria divides politically, we need to find ways to trade, work, grow and innovate.
Despite our changing modern politics; this, our need and ability to trade with each other, has existed for hundreds, maybe thousands of years. It predates colonialism, our 1960 constitution and its more recent copies and it will outlast arguments over self-determination from different parts of the country.
The British are an example to follow in this regard … they may not be a country after 2015 but their need to develop and employ people remains the UK government’s central focus.
Chidi Oti-Obihara
