If you had invested N1 million in MTN Nigeria at the end of 2024, you would have made a profit of N781,000 by the close of trading on June 24, 2025, if you had held onto your shares.
This is because the share price of MTN has increased by 78.1 percent from N200 at the end of 2024 to N356.20 by June 24, 2025.
This rally has boosted MTN Nigeria’s market capitalisation by N3.29 trillion, from N4.19 trillion to N7.48 trillion, driven by a mix of recent tariff hikes, renewed investor confidence, and an anticipated dividend payout.
MTN, which has over 90.5 million subscribers, ended 2024 with a share price of N200, trading at a volume of 1.79 million. By June 24, 2025, the stock had climbed to N356.20 with a trading volume of 2.45 million.
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“The tariff review contributed, and MTN itself has been very strategic in stabilising its earnings,” said Abiodun Keripe, the managing director at Afrinvest Consulting.
The company’s resurgence comes after a turbulent 2024. MTN’s share price dropped 24.24 percent during the year, closing at N200 from N264 at the start. Foreign exchange volatility and a harsh economic climate led to back-to-back losses – N137 billion in 2023 and N400.44 billion in 2024. This forced the company to withhold dividend payments, weakening investor sentiment. By November 5, 2024, the stock had dipped to a low of N169.
“It was a critical moment for the industry,” said Gbenga Adebayo, chairman of the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria (ALTON).
However, MTN’s fate began to change when the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) approved a 50 percent tariff hike, the first in over a decade, effective from February. By the end of Q1 2025, MTN had returned to profitability, posting a profit after tax of N133.7 billion.
Analysts credit the rally to this rebound and MTN’s underlying strength. “We have seen solid growth,” said Mustapha Umaru, an industry and equity research analyst at CSL Stockbrokers Limited.
“And the impact of the tariff hike hasn’t fully kicked in. Telecoms are price inelastic; people don’t reduce usage even when prices change.”
Isaac Osaro of WSTC Financial Services believes the stock should already be trading closer to N400, especially given the company’s current infrastructure drive. “They are expanding 4G and 5G, and that is going to drive more growth,” he said.
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Yahaya Ibrahim, chief technical officer at MTNN, recently told BusinessDay that the telco intends to spend N900 billion on network upgrades in 2025 after years of underinvestment due to macroeconomic pressures.
“Before the recent tariff adjustments, the telecom sector was under immense financial pressure. During that period, investment stalled. That said, we have resumed investments. This year alone, MTN is investing N900 billion in network infrastructure,” he said.
Beyond the tariff adjustments, investor optimism is also being fuelled by the prospect of a dividend payout. MTN could not pay dividends in 2024 due to its N400 billion loss. “Based on our valuation, we expect a correction in their shareholding position. That correction should lead to a payout in dividends this year,” said Umaru of CSL.
According to Keripe of Afrinvest Consulting, MTN’s optimisation of its dollar exposure as well as the ramping up of digital and fintech revenue streams continue to support its current rally and signal a positive outlook.
MTN reduced its outstanding letters of credit from $416.6 million at the end of 2023 to just $1.4 million in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025. “For the long term, we believe MTN is a strong play,” said Keripe. “It leads in subscribers, network strength, and infrastructure. They are also growing their digital and fintech revenues.”
Market watchers also point to the telco’s upcoming public offering as a source of investor enthusiasm. MTN Group, which owns 76 percent of MTNN, announced plans in April to cut its stake to 65 percent through a public sale once profitability returned.
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“There is an expectation that they might bring more shares to the market once profitability is restored,” said Umaru of CSL. “The group wants to reduce its holdings. I think the group is trying to do it at a very favourable price. They may wait a bit.”
“When they did their first public offering, it was a little over N160 per share, and the market price was around N200. If they are coming back to the market, I don’t think they want to do that at the current price, and may go down to maybe N280,” said Osaro of WSTC.
Although MTN’s stock has not shown signs of slowing, Osaro believes it is unlikely to continue growing at the same pace seen since the start of the year. “We are likely going to see an extra 20 percent growth, not what we have recorded in the past two to three months,” he said.
“MTNN is positioned for compelling growth/return opportunities in 2025,” added research analysts at Coronation.
