ARGENTINA
Strengths: No finalist created more of their goals from the centre of the pitch than Argentina, who carved out over three quarters of their goals without resorting to the wings,. They liked to hit teams early, with only two finalists scoring more of their goals in the first half, and once ahead tended to stay there: only four of their 31 fellow qualifiers retained a greater share of points from winning positions.
Weaknesses: Despite topping their qualifying group, Argentina surprisingly only managed to keep a clean sheet in a quarter of their matches: a smaller proportion than any other Brazil-bound team. Going forward they rarely struck from headers or set pieces, which in addition to their lack of wing play could leave them without sufficient versatility to unlock more stubborn defences and unhealthily dependent on Lionel Messi’s inventiveness.
Prospects: The central focus of the Argentine attack should serve them well in Group F against three teams who all conceded an unusually high proportion of goals from central positions. Nigeria’s dead ball expertise and Iran’s industry down the right could catch them by surprise, but most people will be backing them heavily to progress given that their three opponents have a lower average FIFA Ranking than any other nation’s.
BOSNIA
Strengths: Bosnia’s impressive record in qualifying surprised many, scoring three or more goals in over half their matches and never conceding more than once. They showed a steely resilience both in defending leads, which they did flawlessly, and in recovering from going behind where they clawed back a greater share of points than all but two fellow finalists.
Weaknesses: Their attack could be accused of lacking variety however, with few goals from set pieces or long range, and often took a while to get going. The lack of variety extends to personnel: no nation relied more heavily on their top three goalscorers, who converted 77% of their goals between them, which suggests that any attacking injuries or suspensions could be keenly felt.
Prospects: It will be fascinating to see how one of Europe’s emerging teams deals with the threat of Argentina, who themselves have been ruthless at defending leads and conduct the bulk of their goalscoring from the centre where Bosnia’s defence is weakest. Elsewhere in the group they look well equipped to deal with Iran’s numerous forays down the right, having conceded no qualifying goals from this area.
IRAN
Strengths: The Iranians relied more heavily on set pieces for goals than any other side heading for Brazil, with 40% of their goals being created from dead ball situations. The Iranians also managed not to concede a single long-range goal during qualifying, one of only four teams to achieve this.
Weaknesses: Whatever makes Iran such an attacking threat from set pieces doesn’t translate to defending them, with no team conceding a greater share of goals in this way than their 57%. The same share of goals was conceded from close range, again the largest share of the 32 qualifying nations, which could prove costly in Brazil.
Prospects: Their preference for attacking from wide positions gives them a potential means of unsettling Argentina, who are much more comfortable in the centre, although both they and Bosnia will be tough to resist over 90 minutes. Nigeria’s love of long shots will test Iran’s defensive resilience, with the Nigerians’ own back line seemingly well configured to neutralise the right-sided and set piece attacks from Iran.
NIGERIA
Strengths: Nigeria scored in every single match during qualifying, making good use of free kicks and with the highest proportion of goals struck from outside the area. They also netted the largest share of late goals with nearly two thirds of their strikes coming in the last 15 minutes of games. The Super Eagles were one of the better nations at recovering from losing positions too, recovering an impressive 56% of possible points from these situations.
Weaknesses: While they didn’t concede many goals in qualifying, half of the ones they did were long-range efforts, so perhaps their strikers and goalkeepers need to train together more often. They were also one of the lowest scorers in qualifying, with their average of 1.38 goals per match the fifth lowest.
Prospects: Their opening match against Iran looks to be the most winnable, but the Iranians didn’t concede a single long-range effort during qualifying. They did however concede the most goals from free kicks, which should provide encouragement. Dead ball situations may also be their best chance to catch out Argentina, who along with Bosnia presents a forbidding route to the second round.
