Nigeria’s economic watchers seem very optimistic of better days ahead, though many who do not follow the money, or those blinded by ignorance or hatred only see gloom. This may be because at the macro level, the indices seem very bright with the arrows going up and up, but at the individual levels, people are suffering with high rates, fees, and prices.
Financial analysts point to fast receding inflation heading down to about 12% in 2026 from 34.5% in 2024. Others point to naira stability going to N1,400 per dollar soon; or foreign reserve of $42bn, some point to $200m daily forex inflow, crude oil and gas increase, more earnings from non-oil export pushing oil down to about 25% in gross domestic product (GDP), etc.
Financial services sector is expected to power the Nigerian economy by about 20% whereas oil is expected to contribute 6%, equal to ICT at also 6%.
The result is over 100% increase in monthly revenue allocations to states from N307.72bn shared by states in November 2022 to N601.73 with additional N134bn to oil states from the 13% derivation in November 2025. So, Rivers State is one of the oil states that would get such monthly windfall per month in 2026. Thus, the state is expected to gross about N70bn per month in 2026.
With about N287bn needed in 2025 to run the state (recurrent expenditure including salaries, pensions, security vote, etc) which is about N24bn per month, Rivers State has about N46bn left per month in its capital budget to execute projects and boost its economy which is expected to grow at about 7%. Nigeria plans to grow at about 4.5%. Rivers State is the second largest economy in Nigeria after Lagos.
All things being equal, Rivers State is expected to pursue rapid infrastructure development programme with roads (mostly jutting into the Atlantic Ocean and creeks since the governor is from the riverine for the first time), power, beaches, jetties, schools, hospitals, etc. The state is expected to pursue socio-economic programmes especially in agriculture and agro-processing, fishery economy, massive investment in SMES, etc.
Read also: Revealed: What Rivers must do to accelerate economic devt and compete with Lagos
In Rivers State since 2013, expectations have always been cut short by political crisis. The money that comes to the state has rather fueled violence and greed to power instead of power to grid.
The fight for control of the state’s resources has always pitched political leaders against each other, destroying political party system in the state and making mincemeat of governance structure.
The result is that Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi was not allowed to implement his budgets in his last two years in office (2014/15) and his World Bank Water project was stalled, the Songhai Farm Initiative was killed, the Cassava project was destroyed, the Israel-backed Etche Farm project was abandoned, fish projects were abandoned along with a banana project, and the ocean fishing project in partnership with a Chinese firm was stopped, etc.
His successor appeared to rule with iron hand but the economy seemed not to be his priority. When Sim Fubara came on the scene, hopes appeared high that the state’s economy would fly. He started action, after meeting with the Organised Private Sector (OPS) from the city chamber (PHCCIMA) to manufacturers and to investors under the Rivers Entrepreneurs and Investment Forum (REIF). Next, another round of political crisis exploded with impeachment moves. Ever since, Rivers State has been sitting on the keg of gunpowder.
This has prevented the state from crafting a budget let alone implementing one. At a point, outsiders ruled the state and the National Assembly made its laws. As it is now, the state has no 2026 budget though some say the one passed for it by the NASS is still in progress despite the lawmakers insisting there is no budget.
So, in terms of the figures, Rivers State sits on wealth and should be able to witness a year of economic progress and accelerated economic projects implementation.
On the other hand, the peaceful atmosphere and political platform to govern the state and apply the funds seem unavailable.
Experts say if peace is allowed to reign, the state would be one of the best because of many investors knocking at the door, according to Chamberlain Peterside, Director-General of the Rivers State Investment Promotion Agency (RSIPA); but the political gladiators always seem to say that if the man on the seat is allowed to rule in peace and create many feats, the masses may fall in love with him.
In that case, if this thinking continued in 2026 to distract the governor, the possibilities may turn negative.
As 2026 opens up, Rivers State seems to stand at the interjection of two possibilities. The state may experience boom if it is allowed to deploy its N70bn per month revenue base; but it may suffer stagnation if troubles continue.
