…Transaction value up five-fold on strong demand
Nigeria’s commercial property market is seeing a sharp rebound, with acquisition levels rising significantly on the back of improved economic stability over the past 12 months to 18 months.
Transaction value has surged five-fold to $336 million, up from $53 million in 2024, signalling renewed investor confidence.
While the economy remains under pressure, reforms aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability are beginning to yield results. The naira has strengthened to N1,422/$ at the official window as of October 2025, and external reserves have climbed to $46.7 billion in November, which is Nigeria’s highest level since August 2019.
Inflation has also slowed to a 41-month low of 16.05 percent, as of October. Public sentiment has been strong with the local equity market seeing a bull run that put the country’s benchmark index up 49.88 percent year-to-date.
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All these have reflected in the various sectors of the economy, including real estate, which has responded positively with record levels of commercial property acquisition activity.
In line with experts’ expectations, transaction volumes in 2024 increased five-fold to $336 million, up from $53 million in the previous year. The growth was primarily driven by acquisitions from income funds and Nigerian corporates seeking to own their headquarters.
In its latest report entitled, ‘Nigeria Real Estate Capital Trends Report 2025,’ Estate Intel, an online property research and advisory platform, notes that the effects of the economic stability is visible in the real estate services sector.
This sector, according to the report, has consistently been a leading contributor to quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The recently rebased GDP data places services at 13.3 percent of GDP in 2024, making it the third-largest sector after trade (18.2 percent) and crop production (17.5 percent).
Construction sits at the fifth position, contributing 4.7 percent to Nigeria’s GDP. Together, real estate and construction account for nearly 18 percent of GDP, underscoring their centrality to Nigeria’s urbanisation and investment story.
“The emergence of Nigerian corporates and other owner-occupiers as key market participants through office acquisitions or brownfield and greenfield development is of particular interest,” Dolapo Omidire, Estate Intel’s founder/research director, explained.
Although these players do not yet dominate acquisition volumes, Omidire noted that they represent a fast-growing segment, spurred by relatively low asset prices in a high construction-cost environment and a desire to avoid the steep dollar-denominated rents typical of Lagos’ A-Grade office space.
He added that while tracked acquisition activity currently stands just above $50 million, the opacity of the Nigerian market means more deals will likely surface by early 2026.
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It is expected that, if the current economic recovery continues at its current pace, key commercial sectors, including office and retail, which have passed through hyper supply and recession phases, will begin to move towards recovery.
“At this point, asset valuations will begin to rise in response to the improved environment, indicating that acquisition pricing seen in 2024 and 2025 will be the lowest entry point over the next 10-year real estate cycle,” Omidire noted.
“In Lagos specifically, strong demographic dynamics continue to underpin investment activity in residential. It has been on a bull run since 2020, and there are no major signs that this will slow down in the short term,” he added.
He pointed out that, for the office market specifically, during periods of economic recovery and growth, it is typically the first real estate sector to benefit as businesses expand their footprint or make their first entry.
